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Meto Uk Further Outlook


Stuart

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Posted
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London
  • Location: Wimbledon,SW London

Well looks like plenty of active weather on the way to pique a weather enthusiasts interest. Love a good wet stormy spell... or hopefully spells. Mother nature at her wildest. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I suspect that that update will be pretty much 'on the money'...I hope not, but any evidence pointing to the contrary, is scant indeed. As far as snow/cold are concerned, very little in the way of interest?

Nowt interesting in that outlook whatsoever.  I do hope this winter isn’t going down the pan before it’s even started!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

These METO updates are a joke,they chop and change so much all the time,not worth bothering with anymore.

A cr*p update for cold lovers.  I really need to book that Canadian winter holiday!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

So what was the reason for the post I made earlier?

As someone kindly pointed out it is rare for me to give support to you coldies. Believe it or not I am one myself, in moderation though having lived and remembered 47 and 62-63.

Anyway below are the usual 500 mb chart links

First the NOAA from last evening; this shows the Atlantic fairly strong flow all of you are so happy with. Look NW of the UK though, Greenland area and you will notice the very first signal of height rises coupled with a ‘bulge’ in the 500 mb flow also over Iceland?

Far too early to get excited BUT it MAY indicate a change in pattern. Looking at the 8-14 day version and it also shows such a signal. To be honest it is not that often that both pick up on any marked upper flow change on the same day.

So to the ECMWF-GFS from this morning.

Both these have a similar slight suggestion of ridging/height rises in a similar area. One other thing to watch on these two charts is the tendency (over the past couple of days), for the flow into the UK and into Europe chiefly on the EC for the flow to veer just north of west.

So there is a glimmer, no more than that for the possibility of a change in pattern. I would want to see 2 or perhaps 3 more outputs emphasising this before I would believe it is a ‘real’ probability. Currently 15% perhaps.

What we will have even if this does not occur is a more general Pm air mass more often than a Tm air mass. This will mean some colder if brief interludes over the coming week or so. As the Atlantic upper flow is so strong further spells of wet and windy weather for most of us, possibly very windy weather in exposed W/NW’ern areas is going to occur.

I’ll keep you posted but DO NOT get excited yet!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

dozy idiot the wrong thread, can a mod please move to the correct one for me?

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

I'll wait for summer sun to post the update but honestly it's a positive if your looking for colder weather. On the other hand i can't take anything serious anymore that they say it changes just as much as the GFS output

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Dec 2018 to Saturday 15 Dec 2018:

Thursday should get off to a clear start with widespread frost. It is then expected to turn cloudy, wet and windy from the west later with some snow likely over northern mountains. The rain should clear through Friday with blustery showers following and winds staying strong. It will become milder but may not feel it in the wind and rain. The weekend is then likely to be unsettled with some gales. The heaviest rain should be across western and southwestern upslopes and the heaviest showers in the north and west. Things should start to turn drier and colder during the following week. There will likely be bands of rain with hill snow in the north, these interspersed with drier and clearer, but at times showery conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:

As we head through the second half of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather. However, occasional bursts of unsettled and milder weather are likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:

As we head through the second half of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather. However, occasional bursts of unsettled and milder weather are likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

A much more positive update for coldies. Trending back to the cold theme. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Yes, this is definitely better.

But where is their Contingency Planners forecast update, there is no sign of it, this is the de facto winter forecast, they have to issue it prior to Dec 1 or otherwise it is cheating!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, this is definitely better.

But where is their Contingency Planners forecast update, there is no sign of it, this is the de facto winter forecast, they have to issue it prior to Dec 1 or otherwise it is cheating!

I think they could be struggling with the winter forecast this year lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, this is definitely better.

But where is their Contingency Planners forecast update, there is no sign of it, this is the de facto winter forecast, they have to issue it prior to Dec 1 or otherwise it is cheating!

They still haven't released it? That's bad!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

I think they could be struggling with the winter forecast this year lol. 

I don't even bother looking at them any more...they've been all over the place from mid-Autumn to now so I wouldn't get hung up them.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Friday 7 Dec 2018 to Sunday 16 Dec 2018:

Friday is set to be wet and very windy in the north with severe gales on coasts and hills. The rest of the UK is likely to have a windy day too, though with less disruptive winds and lower rainfall totals. The weekend is likely to be unsettled too, alternating between sunshine and showers. By the end of the weekend, thicker cloud and rain are likely to move from west to east. The heaviest rain may well be across the north and west. The weather will tend to turn drier and colder during the following week with lighter winds. Lower temperatures and longer dry spells will mean that night frost and fog become more likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:

As we head through the second half of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather. However, occasional bursts of unsettled and milder weather are likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:

As we head through the second half of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather. However, occasional bursts of unsettled and milder weather are likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

I get different wording:

UK Outlook for Monday 17 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:

For the middle part of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather, bringing a greater chance of overnight frost and fog. However, for the weeks immediately before and after Christmas, wetter and milder weather will become more likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells, and above average temperatures. Any snow associated with these wet spells is likely to be confined to hills in the north.

Updated: 15:08 on Sun 2 Dec 2018 GMT

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Just now, Paul_1978 said:

I get different wording:

UK Outlook for Monday 17 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:

For the middle part of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather, bringing a greater chance of overnight frost and fog. However, for the weeks immediately before and after Christmas, wetter and milder weather will become more likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells, and above average temperatures. Any snow associated with these wet spells is likely to be confined to hills in the north.

Updated: 15:08 on Sun 2 Dec 2018 GMT

That's the 2nd time they've updated it twice in the same afternoon in recent weeks...

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
52 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

That's the 2nd time they've updated it twice in the same afternoon in recent weeks...

I suspect not updated but someone actually checked what had gone out and discovered a missing sentence or two.

Spell check and overall checking seems not to be done at times these days.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

FGS they going for mild wet n windy again in the run up to christmas!!

I know it is a little irritating isn't it.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Saturday 8 Dec 2018 to Monday 17 Dec 2018:

Bright but showery Saturday, with some heavy blustery showers in the north and west. Showers may affect the north and east on Sunday, whilst in the south and west there may be some more persistent rain for a time. Gales in the east at first ease during Sunday, but may return to the west later. During the rest of this period some longer drier, settled but cold spells are likely, with lighter winds (especially early next week). Any wet and windy weather is more likely to be confined to the north and west. This will bring overnight frosts and perhaps fog, especially for the south and east, but also a chance of some snow in the north. Some short-lived milder spells are likely, more especially from late next week onwards.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Tuesday 18 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 1 Jan 2019:

This period may start with some settled, drier and colder weather, with overnight frosts and fog. Whilst there is a lot of uncertainty through the rest of the month, as Christmas approaches we may see a more general trend towards unsettled conditions returning, with spells of wetter and milder weather affecting many parts of the UK, and with a risk of gales at times. Any snow associated with these wet spells is more likely to be confined to hills in the north. Temperatures whilst starting below normal or cold, are likely to recover to be above average at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 18 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 1 Jan 2019:

This period may start with some settled, drier and colder weather, with overnight frosts and fog. Whilst there is a lot of uncertainty through the rest of the month, as Christmas approaches we may see a more general trend towards unsettled conditions returning, with spells of wetter and milder weather affecting many parts of the UK, and with a risk of gales at times. Any snow associated with these wet spells is more likely to be confined to hills in the north. Temperatures whilst starting below normal or cold, are likely to recover to be above average at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Not great is it? A cold dry blip mid month and then back to zonal dross over Christmas and into New Year.

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