Meto Uk Further Outlook

[northwestsnow]

They are now going for a sinker..

Lets hope they are very wrong!!

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

These updates are getting worse!!

Yesterday unsettled later in the period.. today saying 2nd half of December!!

Hmm I in all honestly don't understand how a " forecast" at that distance is worth anything if it can change so rapidly????Mayby ive not got a grasp of how it works but if it changes so quickly mayby a week should suffice

[bluearmy]

go back and read the updates for now from early November …………………… its not an exact science ……. 

[Duane S.]

I honestly don't know why they feel they have to give a forecast that far out. Even more so when they often chop and change it from one day to the next as well!

I am specifically talking about the 16-30 day forecast, more so the last week of.

Are you telling me they are that sure to be able to say this about the week leading up to Christmas " trending back to normal or milder than average by the end of the period.".

I have the upmost respect for them but frankly such 'forecasts' are absolutely and completely pointless this far out.

Of course they have better computing and forecast tools than us mere mortals get to gawp at on a daily basis but come on, we see the GFS 16 day flip with absurd levels of inconsistencies from run to run to never be taken seriously.

The point I am trying to get at is that their improved computer power and tools will pale into complete and utter insignificance by the exponentially increasing inaccuracy of each subsequent hour beyond the 16 day mark that by the time you reach the +720 mark, noise and jam is all that you have left.

OK you could say that there are times when zonal does have an increased chance of occuring in circa +4weeks. I really do not buy that this is one of those times. In which case, don't make a 'forecast' for the sake of it!

Edited November 26, 2018 by s4lancia

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I honestly don't know why they feel they have to give a forecast that far out. Even more so when they often chop and change it from one day to the next as well!

I am specifically talking about the 16-30 day forecast, more so the last week of.

Are you telling me they are that sure to be able to say this about the week leading up to Christmas " trending back to normal or milder than average by the end of the period.".

I have the upmost respect for them but frankly such 'forecasts' are absolutely and completely pointless this far out.

Of course they have better computing and forecast tools than us mere mortals get to gawp at on a daily basis but come on, we see the GFS 16 day flip with absurd levels of inconsistencies from run to run to never be taken seriously.

The point I am trying to get at is that their improved computer power and tools will pale into complete and utter insignificance by the exponentially increasing inaccuracy of each subsequent hour beyond the 16 day mark that by the time you reach the +720 mark, noise and jam is all that you have left.

OK you could say that there are times when zonal does have an increased chance of occuring in circa +4weeks. I really do not buy that this is one of those times. In which case, don't make a 'forecast' for the sake of it!

How do you know they are going on computers, how do you know they're not going off teleconnections, but they are just better at analysing them than us cold chasers on the model thread.

[Duane S.]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How do you know they are going on computers, how do you know they're not going off teleconnections, but they are just better at analysing them than us cold chasers on the model thread.

I would be amazed if they were going solely, or even mainly, off their interpretation of teleconnections. I'm sure there must be an element of human input but with all the super computing power they have at their disposal, I really would imagine a large proportion of it is done by the that.

I don't doubt they are better than 99% of us on this forum at analysing the data at hand (I would hope so at least) but that only get you so far when going beyond 2 weeks. certainly 3 weeks.

Edited November 26, 2018 by s4lancia

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I would be amazed if they were going solely, or even mainly, off their interpretation of teleconnections. I'm sure there must be an element of human input but with all the super computing power they have at their disposal, I really would imagine a large proportion of it is done by the that.

I don't doubt they are better than 99% of us on this forum at analysing the data at hand (I would hope so at least) but that only get you so far when going beyond 2 weeks. certainly 3 weeks.

True, but if it was me or someone else on the forum saying it is likely to be cold and snowy in week 3 or 4 based on the info, people would be +1ing us to death, you cant have it both ways.

[Duane S.]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

True, but if it was me or someone else on the forum saying it is likely to be cold and snowy in week 3 or 4 based on the info, people would be +1ing us to death, you cant have it both ways.

Agreed, we all love to see nice positive posts about future snowy prospects but this is not about amateurs like us on this forum, it's about the Met Office.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Agreed, we all love to see nice positive posts about future snowy prospects but this is not about amateurs like us on this forum, it's about the Met Office.

But even on other threads, i still think people should (however scientific or unscientific their reasoning) actually predict what they think will happen and not what they want to happen, for instance i thought early December was possible but i just cant see anything good deep cold wise on the horizon now only stratospherically can i see any huge positives, which would be January in order to reap the benefits.

[Duane S.]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But even on other threads, i still think people should (however scientific or unscientific their reasoning) actually predict what they think will happen and not what they want to happen, for instance i thought early December was possible but i just cant see anything good deep cold wise on the horizon now only stratospherically can i see any huge positives, which would be January in order to reap the benefits.

An element of hopecasting comes into it whether we want to admit it to ourselves or not, it is human nature (or doomcasting for those with a more gloomy predisposition). But I still much prefer to see posts from those who are looking for the opportunity in the face of a zonal onslaught, especially when backed up by logical reasoning. However straw clutching it may be at times! Give me that over a boring pragmatic half of winter is over post any day. This place would be dull and depressing if that was all there was every time a zonal spell set in.

Deep cold in two weeks? I agree, highly unlikely. Deep cold mid-December to Christmas? Still very open IMO. There has to be at least a reasonable chance (higher than average) looking at some of the background signals (I know they are not screaming blocked blocked blocked but they certainly don't scream zonal either).

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

An element of hopecasting comes into it whether we want to admit it to ourselves or not, it is human nature (or doomcasting for those with a more gloomy predisposition). But I still much prefer to see posts from those who are looking for the opportunity in the face of a zonal onslaught, especially when backed up by logical reasoning. However straw clutching it may be at times! Give me that over a boring pragmatic half of winter is over post any day. This place would be dull and depressing if that was all there was every time a zonal spell set in.

Deep cold in two weeks? I agree, highly unlikely. Deep cold mid-December to Christmas? Still very open IMO. There has to be at least a reasonable chance (higher than average) looking at some of the background signals (I know they are not screaming blocked blocked blocked but they certainly don't scream zonal either).

Thing is with my posts, when cold is possible in FI, i alwys look for it, when i come to blows with the rest of the snow chasers is when the ens members that were flatlining move back up, i always say game over, once they've jumped back, they are very very unlikely to collapse the whole suite in the mid range (144-168)  tbh this late nov / early december one (because of the time of year) never really had cold enough uppers in the first place - good synoptics last week but no cold air.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 2 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 11 Dec 2018:

On Sunday bands of cloud and rain are likely to affect southern areas whilst further north it may be brighter with showers for a time before outbreaks of rain spread to most parts by the end of the day. This changeable theme is likely to continue throughout the following week, with spells of occasionally heavy rain accompanied by brisk winds, interspersed by brighter more showery conditions. Towards the end of this period there may be a transition towards more settled conditions in the south, with lighter winds and more in the way of drier weather developing. Temperatures should initially be milder than average, but are likely to trend downwards by the end of the period with a greater chance of overnight fog and frost.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 26 Dec 2018:

At the start of this period settled conditions should have developed across the UK, bringing some drier weather and lighter winds but also an increased likelihood of fog and overnight frost. However the second half of December will probably see a gradual return to breezier and much more unsettled conditions, with further spells of rain and strong winds, particularly in the north and northwest where there may be some hill snow. Temperatures should initially be below average, before trending back to normal and at times milder than average conditions by the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[mountain shadow]

14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 26 Dec 2018:

At the start of this period settled conditions should have developed across the UK, bringing some drier weather and lighter winds but also an increased likelihood of fog and overnight frost. However the second half of December will probably see a gradual return to breezier and much more unsettled conditions, with further spells of rain and strong winds, particularly in the north and northwest where there may be some hill snow. Temperatures should initially be below average, before trending back to normal and at times milder than average conditions by the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

There goes December then. 

I think we can ignore any model output showing Easterlies for the next month or so.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Not getting led up the garden path again!

Edited November 27, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[mountain shadow]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Not getting led up the garden path again!

It's amazing how quickly things changed though. From months of positive back ground signals to be wiped out by an increasing El Nino and descending wQBO.

 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's amazing how quickly things changed though. From months of positive back ground signals to be wiped out by an increasing El Nino and descending wQBO.

As if we've never had a snowy winter with an increasing El Nino and a descending wQBO? In any case, haven't those parameters been expected, and been somewhere in among the background signals, anyway?

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

There goes December then. 

I think we can ignore any model output showing Easterlies for the next month or so.

Depressing reading that update.

Wind and rain for christmas just for a change then.

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

As if we've never had a snowy winter with an increasing El Nino and a descending wQBO? In any case, haven't those parameters been expected, and been somewhere in among the background signals, anyway?

Something has changed though. I wouldn't mind knowing what it is. 

It could just be that despite the Arctic High things just haven't fallen for us this time and GP seems to be talking about patience whilst we wait for our chips to fall.

[Scandinavian High.]

So going for wet mild conditions though December now wasn’t it a week or to go they where shouting cold I don’t think anyone knows when next cold spell will come it will catch us all out including the pros...

Edited November 27, 2018 by abbie123

[Bristawl Si]

56 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's amazing how quickly things changed though. From months of positive back ground signals to be wiped out by an increasing El Nino and descending wQBO.

 

"Background signals" - hmmm. A term picked up by the NW masses over the years. Every year for last 10 years I've read members write despondently that "despite favourable background signals things just didn't work out".

Maybe Islands on the NWest side of mainland Europe, which are part of a maritime climate with a warm gulf stream nearby, just don't play ball with global background signals. Just saying.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Maybe Islands on the NWest side of mainland Europe, which are part of a maritime climate with a warm gulf stream nearby, just don't play ball with global background signals. Just saying.

Well, we do get lucky some time though.

What concerns me most about the new update is the lack of fence sitting. They don't even mention a low probability of much colder conditions which to me points to them having an above average expectation of the Atlantic winning out.

If it turns out that we do switch to a much colder regime mid month then it would point to the Met Office longer rangers being pretty useless.

[Easton Luna Boys]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, we do get lucky some time though.

What concerns me most about the new update is the lack of fence sitting. They don't even mention a low probability of much colder conditions which to me points to them having an above average expectation of the Atlantic winning out.

If it turns out that we do switch to a much colder regime mid month then it would point to the Met Office longer rangers being pretty useless.

It cannot be denied that the meto long range forecasts chop and change all too often; that pulls into question the validity and worthiness of the much vaunted sanctified data that us mere mortals don't have access to. I know some will say "well of course their forecasts will change, that's because they are reacting to the updated information!" But that's my point; it brings into question its value over a longer time range. We can see with the 4 run daily GFS how models can change, so it is not an unreasonable question to ask or doubt to have.

Personally, I have and will always stick to "trends trends trends" and cannot see any value other than fictional titillation in looking at a met office forecast beyond 7 days tops. They say a week in politics is a long time...

Also, as once again proven; just look at some on here and the other side 10 days ago bullishly predicting a 2010 (or even 62!!??) scenario. I suppose if you look hard enough, you can find a chart to suit your agenda on just about every run - and certainly when looking at fanciful island.

Level headiness is a good trait in such situations.

[Northern Sky]

Does anyone take note of how accurate these forecasts are? I just wondered if you went back a month and compared the forecast to the actual weather we got, what the success rate is - in broad terms of course.

[Don]

7 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

It's amazing how quickly things changed though. From months of positive back ground signals to be wiped out by an increasing El Nino and descending wQBO.

 

I don’t think the El Niño will be a hindrance as it should be fairly weak.  Also, if we get a Modiki (central based event) as some models are predicting, it could enhance our chances of a colder winter.  However, the descending wQBO is a potential spoiler.