Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

First mention of low level snow in the 6 to 30 day outlook.

The very end of the outlook posted in here suggests a possible eastward push of less cold (an annoying euphemism for milder) weather towards mid-December...it might, just might, be a recipe for some county-wide snow events?

Edited November 15, 2018 by Ed Stone
Oops!

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The very end of the outlook posted in here suggests a possible eastward push of less cold (an annoying euphemism for milder) weather towards mid-December...it might, just might, be a recipe for some county-wide snow events?

1

The beeb hinted at this in yesterday's monthly update (see media thread) I guess snow on the leading edge as rain moved in from the west all a long way off yet ofcourse

[Boro Snow]

26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The beeb hinted at this in yesterday's monthly update (see media thread) I guess snow on the leading edge as rain moved in from the west all a long way off yet ofcourse

Gavs 5th Christmas update using the CFS went that way too 

[Don]

This is beginning to sound similar to what happened at the end of November and beginning of December 2008 where cold weather prevailed, before turning much milder come mid-month.  However, it turned much colder again after Christmas and into the New Year.

[MattStoke]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Already posted in the other thread https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/?page=134&tab=comments#comment-3922054

 

My bad. Didn’t spot the other thread!

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Don said:

This is beginning to sound similar to what happened at the end of November and beginning of December 2008 where cold weather prevailed, before turning much milder come mid-month.  However, it turned much colder again after Christmas and into the New Year.

Certainly some similarities with 2008, late November turned colder with a northerly before months end, lots of frost, then the first 10 days or so of December brought some snowy episodes and further frost and low temps, before as you say low pressure swept up from the SW bringing lots of heavy rain and very mild temps (extremely annoying from my perspective as I like the run up to christmas to be cold at least), however, high pressure to the east quickly moved in to produce a very cold frosty end which lingered well in January.

However, this time around the jetstream looks more sluggish - and southerly and we may see more sustained battleground scenario, with milder air having a much greater struggle if indeed it moves through at all.

Recent years that have brought cold ends to November and starts to December, include 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2016 and 2017, of these all even 2010 saw a change to milder conditions mid month, with only 2010 seeing a very shortlived spell before cold resumed, however, more notably apart from 2016 post christmas delivered some cold snowy weather of various degrees and length, 2005 a cold easterly brief though, 2008 much more sustained cold as mentioned, 2012 it turned colder but not until end first week Jan, 2017 a cold snowy blip around 26-29th.

What I'm trying to say is a cold blocked end to Nov/early Dec can be signal for generally colder episodes reoccurring later in December or in January, but not always 2016 being a case in point. 2010 was an anomaly. 

Been a long time since we've had a battleground type of December, 2008 looked on course to deliver but went bust. 1995 probably the last time.

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Nov 2018 to Friday 30 Nov 2018:

The remainder of November looks most likely to be characterised by winds blowing in from continental Europe across much of the country. This will bring variable and often large amounts of cloud, with the best of any sunshine in western areas. There is also the likelihood of some showers, these most likely focussed across eastern areas, but perhaps becoming more widespread and persistent at times. With a relatively chilly air mass in place, there is scope for some sleet or snow, but this will most likely be restricted to higher ground. The breeze will make for a marked wind chill at times in the south. With lighter winds further north, and under clear skies at night, overnight frosts are likely to become rather more extensive.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Dec 2018 to Saturday 15 Dec 2018:

This period is likely to begin with a continuation of cold conditions for much of the country. There is a small chance that during early December, the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the Atlantic, bringing rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes and also less cold weather. However, should this come off, then this change will likely be short lived, with more settled conditions becoming re-established by the middle of December. This would mean a return to increased incidences of overnight frost as well as the risk of fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Dec 2018 to Saturday 15 Dec 2018:

This period is likely to begin with a continuation of cold conditions for much of the country. There is a small chance that during early December, the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the Atlantic, bringing rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes and also less cold weather. However, should this come off, then this change will likely be short lived, with more settled conditions becoming re-established by the middle of December. This would mean a return to increased incidences of overnight frost as well as the risk of fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

No prises for guessing what model run they've give most weight to for that forecast.

[Paul_1978]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Dec 2018 to Saturday 15 Dec 2018:

This period is likely to begin with a continuation of cold conditions for much of the country. There is a small chance that during early December, the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the Atlantic, bringing rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes and also less cold weather. However, should this come off, then this change will likely be short lived, with more settled conditions becoming re-established by the middle of December. This would mean a return to increased incidences of overnight frost as well as the risk of fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Big change from yesterday's update which stated "However, there is an increased chance of less cold conditions arriving as weather systems moving in from the Atlantic."

Today's update is certainly a lot less convincing for that outcome.... Good news if you're a coldie.

[karyo]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

Big change from yesterday's update which stated "However, there is an increased chance of less cold conditions arriving as weather systems moving in from the Atlantic."

Today's update is certainly a lot less convincing for that outcome.... Good news if you're a coldie.

However, they have brought that less cold outcome forward, so I am in two minds about this update. 

[northwestsnow]

A lot of references to fog and frost!!

Sounds superb to me !!

[Don]

22 minutes ago, karyo said:

However, they have brought that less cold outcome forward, so I am in two minds about this update. 

Hmm, that’s exactly how I feel, too.  However, still a decent outlook.

Edited November 16, 2018 by Don

[Froze were the Days]

Personally feel they're all over the place with their 16-30 dayer of recent times - strikes me as if they have little confidence...

[Paul_1978]

54 minutes ago, Don said:

Hmm, that’s exactly how I feel, too.  However, still a decent outlook.

I see where you're coming from. However the key for me is: "However, should this come off, then this change will likely be short lived, with more settled conditions becoming re-established by the middle of December"

 

They don't seem convinced that the Atlantic will even make any inroads at all!

Edited November 16, 2018 by Paul_1978
Typo

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I see where you're coming from. However the key for me is: "However, should this come off, then this change will likely be short lived, with more settled conditions becoming re-established by the middle of December"

They don't seem convince that the Atlantic will even make any inroads at all!

And, in that situation, the potential for some snowfall is always going to be there; so I'm guessing the MetO's reading of the models suggests such a small chance, that there's little point in requesting a Cobra meeting...yet?

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

A lot of references to fog and frost!!

Sounds superb to me !!

Reads like a borefest to me. Bring back December 2015!

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Reads like a borefest to me. Bring back December 2015!

each ti their own

 

[Mucka]

I must say this afternoons MetO update is almost bullish about a blocked December with only the possibility of brief Atlantic incursion 

There is a small chance that during early December, the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the Atlantic, bringing rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes and also less cold weather. However, should this come off, then this change will likely be short lived, with more settled conditions becoming re-established by the middle of December.

Given how cautious MetO are about forecasting cold so far ahead that is about as assured as you will get so far out for cold chances.

[damianslaw]

Agree reading between the lines they must be seeing a high likelihood of a blocked first half to December at least with any atlantic attack weak in affair. It shouts anticyclonic, but the question is where will the heights sit, to our south east? east?, north?, north east? north west? west? or directly overhead? and it is this which is causing the models to fluctuate at the moment, but the dominant feature looks likely to be high pressure.

Personally I'd be happy with a frosty dry high pressure set up first half, provided heights then transfer into a position to allow deep cold and snow in the run up to christmas, the anticyclone can then come back Boxing Day and last into the New Year with deep snow on the ground and freezing temps, not asking too much indeed this would be my ideal December

Week 1 and 2 - anticyclonic cold and frosty and cold pooling to our NE

Week 3 - high retrogresses to the NW and we see a fragment of the PV move through the UK from the NE, producing copious snow and a white christmas

Boxing Day, heights ridge back in from the NW and we see a week of ice days.

 

I can dream!

 

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 22 Nov 2018 to Saturday 1 Dec 2018:

Throughout this period, the winds look likely to blow in from the east, across continental Europe. This will often bring cloudy skies, with the best of any sunshine in western areas. There is also the likelihood of some showers, these most frequent in eastern parts, but perhaps becoming more widespread and persistent at times. With a chill in the air, there is scope for some sleet or snow, but this will most likely be restricted to the hills. The breeze will make for a marked wind chill at times in the south. With lighter winds further north, and under clear skies at night, overnight frosts are likely to become more common. There is also a small chance of even colder conditions going into early December, in northerly winds.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 2 Dec 2018 to Sunday 16 Dec 2018:

Through this period, there may be a continuation of the cold and mainly settled conditions for much of the UK, with some showers coming in from the east. However, there is a chance that during early December the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the west across the Atlantic. This would bring longer spells of rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes, and it would also become less cold. However, even if the change does happen, it won't be long before we have more settled conditions again, perhaps by the middle of December. This would mean a return to the colder conditions with overnight frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Nov 2018 to Sunday 2 Dec 2018:

Through the rest of November, there will often be cloudy skies, with the likelihood of some showers, which may bring hillsnow in the north of the UK. There will be some sunny spells too, although the breeze will make for a marked wind chill at times, especially in the south and west where there may be gales in exposed areas. It will be staying on the chilly side, with patchy frost or ice likely at night. Into early December, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, as there is the chance of either a short-lived milder spell with winds from the west, or perhaps seeing even colder conditions if the winds turn more northerly or northeasterly.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 3 Dec 2018 to Monday 17 Dec 2018:

Through this period, there may be a continuation of the cold and mainly settled conditions for much of the UK, with sunny spells and showers. However, there is a chance that during early December the weather pattern may change, with fronts moving in from the west across the Atlantic. This would bring longer spells of rain, interspersed with brighter, showery interludes, and it would also become less cold. However, even if the change does happen, it won't be long before we have more settled conditions again, perhaps by the middle of December. This would mean a return to the colder conditions, with overnight frost and fog more likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Nov 2018 to Monday 3 Dec 2018:

Through the rest of November, skies will often be fairly cloudy, with the likelihood of some showers, which may bring hill snow to the north of the UK. There will be some sunny spells too, although the breeze will make for a marked wind chill at times, especially in the south and west at first where there may be gales in exposed areas. It will be staying on the chilly side, with patchy frost or ice likely at night. Into early December, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, as there is the chance of either a short-lived milder spell with winds from the west, or perhaps seeing even colder conditions if the winds turn more northerly or northeasterly.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast