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Meto Uk Further Outlook


Stuart

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, karyo said:

Yes, it would have been nice to mention more than hill snow. Basically the wording is exactly the same as yesterday. Copy and paste. The same applies for the 16-30 dayer.

Yes mate im pretty underwhelmed if i were to be honest.

Main emphasis on wind and rain.

Guess we will have to keep an eye on the updates but i feel a bit deflated reading that today..

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes mate im pretty underwhelmed if i were to be honest.

Main emphasis on wind and rain.

Guess we will have to keep an eye on the updates but i feel a bit deflated reading that today..

Agreed! I think they may be playing it safe as the PM air is still about a week away and it is hard to predict at this stage how much it will be moderated. As it looks now, the wind comes straight across the north Atlantic which limits moderation but as we approach the event the models can pick up secondary lows that can cut off/moderate more the cold air which can make the difference for the low ground. Let's hope those secondary lows won't turn up and the update gets wintrier in the coming days.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

If only the MetO selected the coldest/snowiest perturbations from each model-run, eh...? Then they'd be making 'BOOM' updates one after t'other...:cold:

At the end of the day, though, the weather will just do whatever it does. Excuse the tautology!:D

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Not the wintriest of updates from MO, but Ian on Twitter noting the cold zonality phase so they must be seeing something a bit more wintry than the update 

“colder, windy Pm/Am cyclonic phase continues well-signalled with risk of snow at times. As for SSW, no reliable signals "soon", with stratospheric polar vortex f'cast stronger than avg rest of Jan in GloSea5.”

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes mate im pretty underwhelmed if i were to be honest.

Main emphasis on wind and rain.

Guess we will have to keep an eye on the updates but i feel a bit deflated reading that today..

That forecast looks like a duplicate of the operations we have been seeing.

Showery conditions will follow from the west early next week with showers turning wintry in places.

gfs-0-168.png?6gfs-2-168.png?6

For the rest of the period the unsettled weather continues, with further showers or longer spells of heavy rain, and with snow at times especially in the north, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes.

gfs-2-204.png?6gfs-2-240.png?6


First chart shows a front bring rain to the south more wintry up north, The second shows the wintry showers heading south again.

graphe6_1000_242_28___.gifTemperatures overall rather cold with quite frequent overnight frosts, but with brief milder spells at times.
Ensembles from the north West

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That forecast looks like a duplicate of the operations we have been seeing.

Showery conditions will follow from the west early next week with showers turning wintry in places.

gfs-0-168.png?6gfs-2-168.png?6

For the rest of the period the unsettled weather continues, with further showers or longer spells of heavy rain, and with snow at times especially in the north, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes.

gfs-2-204.png?6gfs-2-240.png?6


First chart shows a front bring rain to the south more wintry up north, The second shows the wintry showers heading south again.

graphe6_1000_242_28___.gifTemperatures overall rather cold with quite frequent overnight frosts, but with brief milder spells at times.
Ensembles from the north West

 

Thats last nights update- Gavin D has posted todays :)

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats last nights update- Gavin D has posted todays :)

Has he???? Gavin starts on Saturday

Quote

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

UK Outlook for Sunday 14 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 23 Jan 2018:

Sunday will probably be rather cloudy for most with some outbreaks of light rain and drizzle. There may be some brighter spells before a band of heavy rain and gales arrive from the west, bringing some hill snow in the north, but not reaching the southeast until the end of the day. Showery conditions will follow from the west early next week with showers turning wintry in places. For the rest of the period the unsettled weather continues, with further showers or longer spells of heavy rain, and with snow at times especially in the north, interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places, especially in the northwest. Temperatures overall rather cold with quite frequent overnight frosts, but with brief milder spells at times.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, frosty ground said:

Has he???? Gavin starts on Saturday

 

Im confused lol.

Anyway, your going to get some decent snow next week FG- i'll be amazed if you dont clock up a few inches :)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

worst part of this is the stratosphere, the zonality was always likely.

Yeah- GP post last night sounded very positive but the meto outlook sounds very poor for most out to 1st week in feb.

lets hope next week delivers some suprises..

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
On 08/01/2018 at 12:28, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Jan 2018 to Monday 22 Jan 2018:

On Saturday outbreaks of rain move eastwards, perhaps bringing some hill snow across parts of Scotland and the Pennines. It may brighten up in the west late in the day, with the chance of a few showers. Sunday sees further showers or longer spells of heavy rain with a risk of hill snow, and this unsettled theme continues through the rest of the period. There will be some brighter, showery interludes between the spells of rain, with a low probability mid-week of generally colder and drier weather in places. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places, especially in the north and west. Temperatures most likely to be close to or a little below normal for mid January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07

Posted Yesterday

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Jan 2018 to Monday 22 Jan 2018:

On Saturday outbreaks of rain move eastwards, perhaps bringing some hill snow across parts of Scotland and the Pennines. It may brighten up in the west late in the day, with the chance of a few showers. Sunday sees further showers or longer spells of heavy rain with a risk of hill snow, and this unsettled theme continues through the rest of the period. There will be some brighter, showery interludes between the spells of rain, with a low probability mid-week of generally colder and drier weather in places. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places, especially in the north and west. Temperatures most likely to be close to or a little below normal for mid January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07

Posted today

Gavin posted yesterday by mistake.... My update is the most uptodate. 

Easy way to spot it is by looking at the starting day....... 5 days ends saturday so todays update should start Sunday!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Posted Yesterday

Posted today

Gavin posted yesterday by mistake.... My update is the most uptodate. 

Easy way to spot it is by looking at the starting day....... 5 days ends saturday so todays update should start Sunday!

Cheers mate :)

A little better- as i say, you should do really well once this PM air kicks in, dont tell me and karyo where you live you might see us stood outside your front door one evening with sledges in hand haha

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey
  • Location: Surrey
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 6 Feb 2018:

As we approach the end of January the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with rain, shower and spells of strong winds for most. While confidence in detail is relatively low at this stage, it looks as though northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 7 Feb 2018:

Through this period the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with rain, showers and spells of strong winds for most. While confidence in detail is relatively low at this stage, it looks as though northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to or a little below normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

Hi Gavin, I think this is the most up to date forecast from the Met Office.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
6 minutes ago, It Might Snow said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 7 Feb 2018:

Through this period the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with rain, showers and spells of strong winds for most. While confidence in detail is relatively low at this stage, it looks as though northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to or a little below normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

Hi Gavin, I think this is the most up to date forecast from the Met Office.

 

 

Thank you. Overall similar to the last update but with a marginal improvement on the temperatures. Surprised they don't mention hill snow considering the average to little below average temperatures.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
22 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats last nights update- Gavin D has posted todays :)

I got it wrong was muddled up with the dates didn't change a great deal anyway

:oops:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Monday 15 Jan 2018 to Wednesday 24 Jan 2018:

Rain is expected to clear to the east by Tuesday, with a mixture of sunshine and showers following on behind. These showers will turn wintry in places, particularly in the north. Some of these will be heavy with a risk of thunder and hail. Unsettled conditions will then continue, with further showers or longer spells of rain at times which may also give some snow, mainly in the north. Spells of wet weather will be interspersed by brighter, showery interludes. Often it is going to be windy, with the greatest risk of gales or severe gales across the north and west. Overall there will be a cold feel with frost overnight where there are clear skies, but milder spells are also expected at times, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Jan 2018 to Thursday 8 Feb 2018:

Through this period the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with spells of rain and strong winds for most at times. While confidence is low at this stage, it looks mostly likely that northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to or a little below normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Jan 2018 to Thursday 8 Feb 2018:

Through this period the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with spells of rain and strong winds for most at times. While confidence is low at this stage, it looks mostly likely that northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too, bringing an increased risk of overnight frost and fog. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to or a little below normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Pure flat zonal that says to me. No sign of any favourable blocking there at all, not a sniff.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Pure flat zonal that says to me. No sign of any favourable blocking there at all, not a sniff.

Agreed.

Garbage.

ANOTHER winter with no Greeny high or scandy high.

Atlantic way to strong 'these days'.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

Garbage.

ANOTHER winter with no Greeny high or scandy high.

Atlantic way to strong 'these days'.

Well it only goes up to the 8th February. If a SSW does occur by the end of the month, it can take a couple of weeks to impact the Trop.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, mountain shadow said:

Well it only goes up to the 8th February. If a SSW does occur by the end of the month, it can take a couple of weeks to impact the Trop.

Yes i know...

Id give it about 1% chance.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

Who wants cold from mid February onwards? With the strength of the sun then, it’ll just be a slush fest!

Really? In late March 2013 I received over 2 foot of snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

You’re clearly not in the south then. Snow in late Feb and March melts rapidly. The cold March of 2013 was useless down here for that very reason.

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