Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Weather-history]

Useless. 

Has anyone done a comparison of the forecast of any period to the actual weather of that period? 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

Snow in the north which is not a big deal. That's achievable with ordinary zonal weather. With cold zonality you can get snow events in more areas.

 

well we will agree to disagree

Conventional zonal would only bring snow to scottish mountains, i will agree that they seem to have discounted the ukmo run this morning but thats not a suprise, think the 12zs today will determine if that model is realistic ..

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 12 Jan 2018 to Sunday 21 Jan 2018:

After a cold and frosty start on Friday, cloud and rain will edge in from the west perhaps bringing a transient spell of snow across the Scottish mountains later on Friday and into Saturday. Thereafter, it looks set to turn unsettled through the middle of January with spells of rain spreading in from the west, interspersed with some brighter and showery interludes and occasional drier spells. Showers could be wintry at times in the north, particularly over the hills. Winds will often be strong, with gales or severe gales in places, whilst temperatures are likely to remain close to normal for mid January, although maybe colder at times in the north. There is a low probability of generally colder and drier weather in the south and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 22 Jan 2018 to Monday 5 Feb 2018:

As we head into the latter part of January and early February, the unsettled weather will most likely continue. However, the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain may tend to be focused in the north and west, with southern and eastern areas perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. There may be some more settled weather in between frontal systems too. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[karyo]

Boo

[Bristawl Si]

Brilliant! Less than 100 words in that paragraph and we have:

"most likely.."

"may tend..."

"perhaps..."

"may be..."

"likely to..."

The only words they left out are "we're not really sure" Who writes these updates?

Edited January 7, 2018 by Bristle boy

[Sweatyman]

Do What?

[snowray]

Where did the mention of potential for several snow events go?

[CK1981]

The only interest from my point of view is the potential for colder weather in the south. This ‘could’ be a hint at the chance of a more potent easterly!

[johnholmes]

To prevent cluttering up the main model thread here are the links from UK Met about DECIDER

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/decider-adds-glosea5-met-office-global-seasonal-system-fred-brauer

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2016/new-weather-patterns-for-uk-and-europe

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/people/robert-neal

[iapennell]

My take is that, around the 25th January, something in the form of much weaker Westerlies in the sub-Arctic Stratosphere will hijack this mobile North Atlantic pattern this year. I don't tend to dismiss the likelihood of continued mild stormy Westerlies off the North Atlantic in January unless there are good reasons to.  A number of factors such as Easterlies high up over the Equator, no Sun-spots, a weak La Nina and extensive Eurasian snow-cover combined with the normal Return of the Sun to the Arctic Stratosphere in late January all point strongly to a major interruption to the mild rainy theme.

But not until the close of January. 

[SLEETY]

That update was written before the 12z runs.their own model is showing -12hpa knocking on the door of the east coast.

be interesting to see their next update,you cannot write off a chance of an Easterly yet.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Jan 2018 to Monday 22 Jan 2018:

On Saturday outbreaks of rain move eastwards, perhaps bringing some hill snow across parts of Scotland and the Pennines. It may brighten up in the west late in the day, with the chance of a few showers. Sunday sees further showers or longer spells of heavy rain with a risk of hill snow, and this unsettled theme continues through the rest of the period. There will be some brighter, showery interludes between the spells of rain, with a low probability mid-week of generally colder and drier weather in places. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places, especially in the north and west. Temperatures most likely to be close to or a little below normal for mid January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 6 Feb 2018:

As we approach the end of January the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with rain, shower and spells of strong winds for most. While confidence in detail is relatively low at this stage, it looks as though northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[karyo]

Changed a bit again! At least it is for the better. Now it reads more like a bit of a battleground snow event for the north to be followed by some cold zonality. No snow nirvana but better than yesterday's update.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Changed a bit again! At least it is for the better. Now it reads more like a bit of a battleground snow event for the north to be followed by some cold zonality. No snow nirvana but better than yesterday's update.

Agreed again K!

Think cold zonal is on the cards for the next couple of weeks , could be one of those situations where its wet in manchester and a snowy nirvana 300m up a hill in oldham /buxton etc.

the bit i find interesting is temps average or a little below for jan- any temps below the norm is good for northern hills in particualr.

Edited January 8, 2018 by northwestsnow

[karyo]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed again K!

Think cold zonal is on the cards for the next couple of weeks , could be one of those situations where its wet in manchester and a snowy nirvana 300m up a hill in oldham /buxton etc.

Yes, that sounds about right as things stand. I'd be happy with that as a short drive east can give me snow.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, karyo said:

Yes, that sounds about right as things stand. I'd be happy with that as a short drive east can give me snow.

Yes we chatted about this before- high parts of oldham (about 15mins drive for you) are 300-350m above sea level.

[mountain shadow]

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 6 Feb 2018:

As we approach the end of January the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with rain, shower and spells of strong winds for most. While confidence in detail is relatively low at this stage, it looks as though northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Zero sign of any decent cold there. I can only assume the Met Office longer range models do not show a SSW or indeed if there is one, that it impacts the UK favourably.

Maybe need to wait until mid February into March?

[78/79]

On 1/7/2018 at 12:47, Bristle boy said:

Brilliant! Less than 100 words in that paragraph and we have:

"most likely.."

"may tend..."

"perhaps..."

"may be..."

"likely to..."

The only words they left out are "we're not really sure" Who writes these updates?

Can't possibly say

[DAVID SNOW]

9 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Zero sign of any decent cold there. I can only assume the Met Office longer range models do not show a SSW or indeed if there is one, that it impacts the UK favourably.

Maybe need to wait until mid February into March?

There was a strong signal re SSW in Decembers models but since then the signal has been... lost.

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 13 Jan 2018 to Monday 22 Jan 2018:

On Saturday outbreaks of rain move eastwards, perhaps bringing some hill snow across parts of Scotland and the Pennines. It may brighten up in the west late in the day, with the chance of a few showers. Sunday sees further showers or longer spells of heavy rain with a risk of hill snow, and this unsettled theme continues through the rest of the period. There will be some brighter, showery interludes between the spells of rain, with a low probability mid-week of generally colder and drier weather in places. Often windy, with gales or severe gales in places, especially in the north and west. Temperatures most likely to be close to or a little below normal for mid January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Jan 2018 to Tuesday 6 Feb 2018:

As we approach the end of January the unsettled weather will most likely continue, with rain, shower and spells of strong winds for most. While confidence in detail is relatively low at this stage, it looks as though northwestern areas are likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent spells of rain, with southern and eastern parts perhaps seeing somewhat drier conditions. However, there may be some more settled weather in between weather systems too. On the whole, temperatures are likely to be close to normal, however as is often the case spells of rain will bring milder temperatures, followed by colder interludes.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-01-07

[northwestsnow]

A rather underwhelming update -  i was hoping for something more wintry- perhaps its just not going to be cold enough for low level snow afterall..

[karyo]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

A rather underwhelming update -  i was hoping for something more wintry- perhaps its just not going to be cold enough for low level snow afterall..

Yes, it would have been nice to mention more than hill snow. Basically the wording is exactly the same as yesterday. Copy and paste. The same applies for the 16-30 dayer.