Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Meto Uk Further Outlook


Stuart

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
51 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Yes it certainly is.

Not sure just why they appear to have 'jumped' from one scenario to almost the opposite one in 24 hours.

The upper air pattern showing on the various anomaly charts generally have pointed to a less meridional flow for a day or two. However, the source of the air, at 500 mb, is from a fairly high level, Alaska and over the Gt Lakes and on in to the UK which, on average, is not a mild airflow. From their 70:30 cold and mild for the south which seemed, to me, about right, I would say more like a 50:50 for the south and maybe 60:40 for more cold than mild the further north one lives. That in the 6-10 day outlook and possibly out to 2 weeks. Beyond that then best ask Mystic Meg!

Probably because the models have jumped very quickly, Thomas Schafenaker has just confirmed it - mild end to next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Dec 2017 to Saturday 23 Dec 2017:

A mixture of sunshine and showers is likely at the start of this period and through into the weekend. The most frequent showers are expected to affect the north and west where they will occasionally be rather heavy and mixed with hail, and with snow expected to fall over some northern hills. Into the following week the showers are likely to become less frequent with time. It will often be windy with gales possible in exposed parts of the north and west. Generally it will feel cold, with widespread overnight frosts and some icy patches. Milder conditions are then likely to return as we move into the run up to Christmas, with wet and windy weather at times, especially in the north and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Dec 2017 to Sunday 7 Jan 2018:

During the Christmas period we are likely to see a transition from spells of wet and windy weather moving across the UK, towards more generally benign weather becoming established. This is likely to bring a mixture of colder, drier conditions and shorter lived milder, wetter and windier interludes. Snow is likely at times, especially in more northern and central parts of the UK. Temperatures will probably be below average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Dec 2017 to Sunday 24 Dec 2017:

A cool northerly will bring a mixture of sunshine and showers at the start of this period. Eastern areas may see some more persistent rain at first, but otherwise showers are expected, with the most frequent showers in the north and west where they may be heavy, and with some snow falling over some northern hills. Generally it will feel cold, with overnight frosts and some icy patches. Into the following week bands of rain and hill snow interspersed by drier interludes are likely. It will often be windy with gales possible in exposed parts of the north and west. Milder conditions are then likely to return as we approach Christmas, with some wet and windy weather at times, especially in the north and west.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Dec 2017 to Monday 25 Dec 2017:

Cold northerly winds will bring a mixture of sunshine and wintry showers on Saturday. Showers will mainly be along exposed coasts, with a good deal of sunshine elsewhere. Generally it will feel cold despite the sunshine, with overnight frosts and some icy patches for some. Sunday will probably turn less cold but more unsettled, with strengthening winds, outbreaks of rain, hill snow and cloudier skies. Into the following week, milder conditions will arrive with bands of rain and hill snow interspersed by drier interludes, these most likely in the southeast. It will often be windy with gales possible in exposed parts of the north and west. These conditions will probably continue as we approach Christmas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 9 Jan 2018:

Generally changeable conditions look most likely from the start of the period to the end of December. Bands of rain are likely to move across the UK, followed by scattered showers, mainly in the northwest. Showers are likely to turn wintry at times, particularly in the north. It will often be windy with milder than average temperatures most probable. As we head into the start of January, a generally more settled spell of weather could become established. This would likely bring a mixture of colder and drier conditions with brief interludes of milder, wetter and windier weather. Snow is likely at times, especially in northern and central parts of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 26 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 9 Jan 2018:

Generally changeable conditions look most likely from the start of the period to the end of December. Bands of rain are likely to move across the UK, followed by scattered showers, mainly in the northwest. Showers are likely to turn wintry at times, particularly in the north. It will often be windy with milder than average temperatures most probable. As we head into the start of January, a generally more settled spell of weather could become established. This would likely bring a mixture of colder and drier conditions with brief interludes of milder, wetter and windier weather. Snow is likely at times, especially in northern and central parts of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

A change in the wording indicating a longer spell of milder weather. The settled, colder spell is now delayed till the new year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
39 minutes ago, karyo said:

A change in the wording indicating a longer spell of milder weather. The settled, colder spell is now delayed till the new year.

Yep seems like it is the cold which is getting pushed further back now....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Yep seems like it is the cold which is getting pushed further back now....

I hope those who got snow yesterday made the most of it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Dec 2017 to Tuesday 26 Dec 2017:

After a frosty start on Sunday, it will turn less cold. Cloud and outbreaks of rain are expected to spread to all areas by the end of the day, with strengthening winds and a perhaps hill snow for a time in the north. This is likely to bring a change to unsettled and milder conditions across country early next week. Through the rest of the period, generally milder but unsettled conditions are likely persist with bands of rain and hill snow interspersed by drier interludes, these most likely in the southeast. It may become very windy at times later next week with gales or severe gales in places. There remains a small chance that generally drier and colder conditions could affect southern areas at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 10 Jan 2018:

Generally changeable conditions look most likely persist until the end of December. Bands of rain are likely to move across the UK, interspersed with brighter showery conditions. Showers are likely to turn wintry at times, particularly in the north. It will often be windy with temperatures varying around normal. As we head into the start of January there is large uncertainty. However, a generally more settled spell of weather could become established. This would likely bring a mixture of colder and drier conditions with brief interludes of milder, wetter and windier weather. Snow is likely at times, especially in northern and central parts of the UK, as well as an increased likelihood of overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Sounds average or just below at times with only very brief milder shots with battleground scenarios.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Monday 18 Dec 2017 to Wednesday 27 Dec 2017:

Monday should be a dry and bright day across the country, however cloud and outbreaks of rain could spread across the north overnight and into Tuesday morning. Tuesday will probably stay dry and fine in the south though. Temperatures are likely to vary around normal in southern parts, but it could turn milder across the north Through the rest of the period, milder but unsettled conditions are likely persist in northern parts with bands of rain and hill snow interspersed by drier interludes. It may become very windy at times later next week with gales or severe gales in places. Further south it is more likely that largely settled conditions will dominate with overnight frosts and a risk of fog. However, brief wet and cloudy spells are possible here too.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Tuesday 19 Dec 2017 to Thursday 28 Dec 2017:

In the run up to Christmas the UK should see temperatures return near to or above average for the time of year, with a north-south split developing by around the 21st Dec. In northern parts of the UK the weather is likely to be changeable with strong winds, rain or showers, at times; as well as drier, brighter interludes. Across the south of the UK it will be drier and more settled, although probably rather cloudy. Any rain will only be a brief interruption and any breaks in the cloud cover will give foggy or frosty overnight conditions. Around Christmas Eve the north-south split should begin to break down with unsettled, often windy, conditions developing thereafter, with any snow most likely across the north of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-12-01

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Friday 29 Dec 2017 to Friday 12 Jan 2018:

Through the last days of December it is likely to be unsettled and often windy across much of the UK. Temperatures will be near to or below average and snow is likely, at times, especially across northern parts of the country. Through the first half of January a gradual reduction in the frequency of Atlantic westerlies seems most likely, this will be coupled with an increase in the frequency of colder and drier periods, although confidence is low at this stage. Milder, wetter, and windier spells should become more short-lived during this period with the colder and drier spells of weather bringing an increased likelihood of overnight frost and fog, as well as some snow, wintry showers, and below-average temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Reading this it sounds to me like they are expecting some cold zonality at first before the proper cold emerges. Either way it sounds good to me.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

A bit unusual the wording to be so specific with dates of weather changes?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

A bit unusual the wording to be so specific with dates of weather changes?

I never noticed that, JH...Maybe James Madden broke into MetOHQ last night?:shok:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Any snow more likely in the north of the country after christmas eve, what an odd turn of phrase, are they expecting snow then? seems so otherwise why mention it. It suggests to me the jetstream once again will send troughs/fronts on a NW-SE track ahead of a pronounced change to colder conditions to start the new year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Dec 2017 to Friday 29 Dec 2017:

In the run up to Christmas it is most probable that the UK should see temperatures return near to or above average for the time of year, with a north-south split developing. In northern parts of the UK the weather is likely to be changeable with strong winds, rain or showers, at times; as well as drier, brighter interludes. Across the south of the UK it will be drier and more settled although probably rather cloudy. Any rain will only be a brief interruption and any breaks in the cloud cover will give foggy or frosty overnight conditions. Around Christmas Eve or Christmas the north-south split should begin to break down with unsettled, often windy, conditions developing thereafter, with any snow most likely across the north of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Saturday 30 Dec 2017 to Saturday 13 Jan 2018:

Through the final days of December and, perhaps, the start of January it is likely to be unsettled and often windy across much of the UK. Temperatures will be near to or below average and snow is likely, at times, especially across northern parts of the country. Through the first half of January a gradual reduction in the frequency of Atlantic westerlies seems most likely, this will be coupled with an increase in the frequency of colder and drier periods, although confidence is low at this stage. Milder, wetter, and windier spells should become more short-lived during this period with the colder and drier spells of weather bringing an increased likelihood of overnight frost and fog, as well as some snow, wintry showers, and below-average temperatures.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UK Outlook for Thursday 21 Dec 2017 to Saturday 30 Dec 2017:

In the run up to Christmas it is most probable that the UK should see temperatures return near to or above average for the time of year, with a north-south split developing. In northern parts of the UK the weather is likely to be changeable with strong winds and rain or showers; as well as drier, brighter interludes. Across the south of the UK it will be drier and more settled although probably rather cloudy. Any rain will only be a brief interruption and any breaks in the cloud cover could give foggy or frosty overnight conditions. Over the Christmas period the north-south split looks mostly likely to begin to break down with unsettled, often windy, conditions developing thereafter, with any snow most likely across the north of the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...