Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Nov 2017 to Friday 24 Nov 2017:

A rather cloudy day is expected on Wednesday with some rain at times, although possibly brighter in the north for a time. The cloud and rain is expected to clear southeastwards through Thursday with brighter conditions following. Showers are likely in the west and northwest with possible snow over northern hills. Temperatures will generally be around normal, but rather cold in more settled spells, with overnight frosts. A changeable pattern is likely to remain over the weekend. There will be drier periods interspersed with spells of rain, with the best of any drier and brighter weather in the south and east. As we head into the following week there is an increasing chance of seeing generally colder, drier weather with a risk of snow in places, especially the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Nov 2017 to Saturday 9 Dec 2017:

There is low confidence in details through this period, however there is an increasing signal that high pressure will become more dominant. This will bring a greater chance of colder and drier conditions, but also the risk of overnight frost and fog. There will still be spells of rain and showers as frontal systems move across the UK, but these will be interspersed with drier, colder and brighter days. There is also an increased risk of snow at times, more especially in the north. Temperatures look like being below normal generally, with an increased chance of frost through the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Saturday 25 Nov 2017 to Saturday 9 Dec 2017:

There is low confidence in details through this period, however there is an increasing signal that high pressure will become more dominant. This will bring a greater chance of colder and drier conditions, but also the risk of overnight frost and fog. There will still be spells of rain and showers as frontal systems move across the UK, but these will be interspersed with drier, colder and brighter days. There is also an increased risk of snow at times, more especially in the north. Temperatures look like being below normal generally, with an increased chance of frost through the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Seems to be a bit more uncertainty with this update.  To be expected at this range though.

[damianslaw]

Liking these outlooks as someone who likes a cold wintry build up to the christmas period - sort of wish we were 3 weeks ahead of where we are now though..

[Don]

56 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Liking these outlooks as someone who likes a cold wintry build up to the christmas period - sort of wish we were 3 weeks ahead of where we are now though..

Lets just hope that any early cold comes off this year, unlike last.  I mean by that genuinely wintry conditions and not just a period of frost.

Edited November 10, 2017 by Don

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Nov 2017 to Saturday 25 Nov 2017:

A mainly dry and bright start to Thursday in the southeast, however cloud, rain and strong to gale force winds are likely in the north and west. The rain then slowly edges southeastwards, perhaps not clearing the UK until Friday. Brighter, showery conditions will follow to all areas with some snow possible over northern hills. Mild on Thursday, becoming colder on Friday. A changeable and mostly cold pattern is likely to remain over the weekend. There will be drier periods interspersed with spells of rain and hill snow, with the best of any drier and brighter weather in the south and east. As we head into the following week there is an increasing chance of seeing generally colder, drier weather with a risk of snow in places, especially the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Nov 2017 to Saturday 25 Nov 2017:

A mainly dry and bright start to Thursday in the southeast, however cloud, rain and strong to gale force winds are likely in the north and west. The rain then slowly edges southeastwards, perhaps not clearing the UK until Friday. Brighter, showery conditions will follow to all areas with some snow possible over northern hills. Mild on Thursday, becoming colder on Friday. A changeable and mostly cold pattern is likely to remain over the weekend. There will be drier periods interspersed with spells of rain and hill snow, with the best of any drier and brighter weather in the south and east. As we head into the following week there is an increasing chance of seeing generally colder, drier weather with a risk of snow in places, especially the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Pretty much what GFS6z shows...as i posted, a nice set up for elevated northern areas:)

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Friday 17 Nov 2017 to Sunday 26 Nov 2017:

Rain, perhaps heavy, will gradually clear away southeastwards during Friday, with a brighter, showery and windy regime becoming established by the weekend. The showers may turn wintry to some low levels in the north. Becoming rather cold, with overnight frosts becoming widespread. Into early next week, we start to see some uncertainty at this stage, with the chance of some persistent rain across some southern parts of the UK, where some snow could occur over the higher ground. Thereafter, we are likely to see a blocked pattern becoming established across the UK, with a greater chance of drier, colder and brighter weather for most. Temperatures mainly below the average, with increased risk of overnight frost.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 27 Nov 2017 to Monday 11 Dec 2017:

Blocked patterns appear to be likely through this period, with a greater chance of colder, brighter and drier weather for most, with a easterly or northerly airflow, perhaps high pressure becoming more establised across the UK. However, there are likely to be some short-lived periods with low pressure systems bringing spells of rain or showery conditions, with some snow in places, especially in the north. Temperatures are likely to be below the average for late November and early December, with increased risk of overnight frost. Some shorter milder spells are possible in the south. Perhaps a return to a generally milder westerly flow towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[johnholmes]

As I thought though, blocked but without cold uppers and the window of opportunity ends in Early Dec as the nina kicks in

I am quite sure having read their new 6-15 that there are cold uppers. One tends not to get snow unless the atmosphere is cold at the surface and in the upper air. Yes, it need not be a great depth although with an easterly and snow/wintry showers off the N Sea that is often the case, remember December 2010?

So I expect the air up to 10-15000 ft and possibly ip to the 500 mb level ( around 18,000 ft, is expected to be 'cold' for their forecast to validate.

This was the skew-t during the epic 30/11-1/12 snowfall

sorry it will not allow me to post this unless I post the whole topic, anyway should make some of you pretty excited!

 Sorry I still cannot get it to do what I want. One of you clever young folk might well be able to find the actual post I made into Net Wx, please?

Believe me though the Watnall skew-t was unstable and 'cold' up to the Tropopause around 350 mb

 

Edited November 12, 2017 by johnholmes

[fromey]

Just going to throw this out there

[feb1991blizzard]

 

5 hours ago, johnholmes said:

As I thought though, blocked but without cold uppers and the window of opportunity ends in Early Dec as the nina kicks in

I am quite sure having read their new 6-15 that there are cold uppers. One tends not to get snow unless the atmosphere is cold at the surface and in the upper air. Yes, it need not be a great depth although with an easterly and snow/wintry showers off the N Sea that is often the case, remember December 2010?

So I expect the air up to 10-15000 ft and possibly ip to the 500 mb level ( around 18,000 ft, is expected to be 'cold' for their forecast to validate.

This was the skew-t during the epic 30/11-1/12 snowfall

sorry it will not allow me to post this unless I post the whole topic, anyway should make some of you pretty excited!

 Sorry I still cannot get it to do what I want. One of you clever young folk might well be able to find the actual post I made into Net Wx, please?

Believe me though the Watnall skew-t was unstable and 'cold' up to the Tropopause around 350 mb

 

Every output I look at that has uppers cold enough to guarantee snow (still most of which are not very cold though), seems to just scream little bits of light showery PPN before the high suppresses it, the runs that have low enough surface pressure or steep mid level lapse rates seem to screem 850's / surface temps that look like slush fests, 2 inches of slushy deposits just doesn't cut it for me anymore, even @bluearmy always maintains that a cold spell to him is crunchy snow that doesn't melt in bright sunshine and hardly any ensembles have suggested this let alone op runs, the GFS 12z ironically just after my earlier rant, was the nearest op, as for Nov / Dec 2010, there were 2 snow events here of Note, 6 inches in 2 and a half hours from a potent wave that formed in an E'ly in late Nov in around -10c uppers, and a WNW'ly later in Dec giving 3 inches but the uppers were also around -10c from an initial powerhouse N'ly (infact synoptically the neatest and best N'ly in my lifetime, just unlucky to miss out on an even bigger dumping)

[booferking]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 28 Nov 2017 to Tuesday 12 Dec 2017:

Blocked patterns appear to be likely through this period, with a greater chance of colder, brighter and drier weather for most, with a easterly or northerly airflow, perhaps high pressure becoming more establised across the UK. However, there are likely to be some short-lived periods with low pressure systems bringing spells of rain or showery conditions, with some snow in places, especially in the north. Temperatures are likely to be below the average for late November and early December, with increased risk of overnight frost. Some shorter milder spells are possible in the south. Perhaps a return to a generally milder westerly flow towards the end of the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Nov 2017 to Monday 27 Nov 2017:

The weekend generally looks fine and dry, particularly across central and western parts, once any early fog has cleared. However, there will be some showers across northern parts, turning wintry over the hills. Feeling rather cold for many. The showers may become more widespread across the north on Sunday. A cold and mainly bright regime is likely to become established across the UK into next week, with further wintry showers across the north. However, there remains a small chance of some persistent rain and perhaps hill snow across some southern and southwestern parts early next week. Thereafter, we are likely to see a blocked pattern becoming established, with a greater chance of drier, colder and brighter weather for most. Temperatures mainly below the average, with increased risk of overnight frost.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[booferking]

UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Nov 2017 to Monday 27 Nov 2017:

The weekend generally looks fine and dry, particularly across central and western parts, once any early fog has cleared. However, there will be some showers across northern parts, turning wintry over the hills. Feeling rather cold for many. The showers may become more widespread across the north on Sunday. A cold and mainly bright regime is likely to become established across the UK into next week, with further wintry showers across the north. However, there remains a small chance of some persistent rain and perhaps hill snow across some southern and southwestern parts early next week. Thereafter, we are likely to see a blocked pattern becoming established, with a greater chance of drier, colder and brighter weather for most. Temperatures mainly below the average, with increased risk of overnight frost.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Edited November 13, 2017 by booferking

[Summer Sun]

Already posted @booferking

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Sunday 19 Nov 2017 to Tuesday 28 Nov 2017:

After a cold start for some, it will turn milder on Sunday with outbreaks of rain spreading across most areas, this perhaps turning to snow across parts of Scotland, where it probably stays colder. This will clear, allowing colder air to spread to all areas again on Monday, with a mixture of sunshine and showers. These could turn wintry in the northeast and it will become windy with gales developing in the north. The rest of this week will remain changeable with further spells of wet, windy and generally milder weather, although there remains the risk of snow in the north. This will be interspersed with drier, brighter and colder spells, although there could be frost and fog overnight and in the mornings. Overall, temperatures will be colder than normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 13 Dec 2017:

Towards the end of November and into early December, weather patterns may be rather slow to evolve, with a greater chance of drier, brighter and colder weather becoming established, particularly at first. This would lead to temperatures being below normal with more widespread frost and fog. However, there remains the chance that there will be some milder interludes, especially later on, bringing some wet and windy weather, with the risk of some snow across northern parts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Dancerwithwings]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 13 Dec 2017:

Towards the end of November and into early December, weather patterns may be rather slow to evolve, with a greater chance of drier, brighter and colder weather becoming established, particularly at first. This would lead to temperatures being below normal with more widespread frost and fog. However, there remains the chance that there will be some milder interludes, especially later on, bringing some wet and windy weather, with the risk of some snow across northern parts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

Makes a change...... "there remains the chance that there will be some milder interludes"....Normally colder interludes is stated

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 29 Nov 2017:

Spells of unsettled weather should affect the UK through the first few days of the period, interspersed with brighter, sunnier interludes. Rain may fall as snow, at times, especially over the highland areas of the north of the UK, and it is likely to turn breezy with a risk of gales in the far north or northwest. Through the latter half of the week, the south of the UK should see a spell of cloudy weather, average temperatures, and some bouts of rain. The northern half of the UK should be drier, brighter, but colder with some frosty or foggy mornings. Temperatures are likely to stay around average or just below towards the end of November with a predominance of dry but cold weather for many.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[Summer Sun]

UK Outlook for Thursday 30 Nov 2017 to Thursday 14 Dec 2017:

Slow moving patterns are most probably through this outlook period. These will give correspondingly slow changes to the UK's weather regimes through the end of November and the first half of December. There is a moderate chance for drier conditions to dominate many parts of the UK during this period with temperatures probably starting off near or below normal. However, these drier, colder periods are likely to be punctuated by milder interludes, especially later on in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

In other words we don't have a clue

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Nov 2017 to Wednesday 29 Nov 2017:

Spells of unsettled weather should affect the UK through the first few days of the period, interspersed with brighter, sunnier interludes. Rain may fall as snow, at times, especially over the highland areas of the north of the UK, and it is likely to turn breezy with a risk of gales in the far north or northwest. Through the latter half of the week, the south of the UK should see a spell of cloudy weather, average temperatures, and some bouts of rain. The northern half of the UK should be drier, brighter, but colder with some frosty or foggy mornings. Temperatures are likely to stay around average or just below towards the end of November with a predominance of dry but cold weather for many.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2017-11-14

The potential cold continues to be downgraded as expected.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

In other words we don't have a clue

Given the way the models have flip flopped around recently, I think they're right to be uncertain!

[Decemberof2010]

They always cover every scenario with clever wording. The real truth is, as stated above they actually don't know. I stopped pinning hopes on their 30 day outlooks after last years bust.