Met office 16 to 30 day outlook

[Summer Sun 25,039]

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Mar 2013 to Sunday 17 Mar 2013:

Many areas are likely to be colder than average through much of this period, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK. Nights are then often also likely to be frosty. Also some signs of conditions turning a little more unsettled during the early part of this forecast period, perhaps with a chance of snow. Generally, however, no strong signals regarding precipitation and taking the period as a whole some areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual for the time of year. Finally, towards the middle of March temperatures may recover close to the seasonal norm.

Updated: 1159 on Sat 16 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Eugene 1,202]

Doesn't seem like they are buying the GFS 06Z ensemble mean for early March, can see them changing their 16 to 30 day outlook back and forth

Edited February 16, 2013 by Eugene

[Summer Sun 25,039]

Doesn't seem like they are buying the GFS 06Z ensembles for early March.

Yeah hopefully precipitation will be below average giving everywhere time to dry out, not very nice going on country walks when everywhere is so boggy

Edited February 16, 2013 by Gavin.

[Ed Stone 30,059]

Doesn't seem like they are buying the GFS 06Z ensemble mean for early March, can see them changing their 16 to 30 day outlook back and forth

Do the GFS ensembles go out that far, Eugene?

[Eugene 1,202]

Yes gavin you are right, i just want some prolonged dry weather as like you say unsettled periods are no good for country walking, the reason i favour cold and dry is because the countryside is still very very muddy and until the sun really increases in strength that is the best way to help me on my country walks with firm underfoot conditions after harsh night frost, GFS 06Z ensembles were probably too late for this update, GFS 00Z ensembles were similar for early March though and i didnt see the ensembles for yesterday so maybe they showed mild wet sw'lys too, sounds like you arent that into unsettled weather even if mild.

[Summer Sun 25,039]

Do the GFS ensembles go out that far, Eugene?

Yes 3rd March

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png?6767676767

[Ed Stone 30,059]

Yes 3rd March

http://www.wetterzen....png?6767676767

Cheers, gav...

[Polar Maritime 12,924]

Yes gavin you are right, i just want some prolonged dry weather as like you say unsettled periods are no good for country walking, the reason i favour cold and dry is because the countryside is still very very muddy and until the sun really increases in strength that is the best way to help me on my country walks with firm underfoot conditions after harsh night frost, GFS 06Z ensembles were probably too late for this update, GFS 00Z ensembles were similar for early March though and i didnt see the ensembles for yesterday so maybe they showed mild wet sw'lys too, sounds like you arent that into unsettled weather even if mild.

Yes I agree, some fantastic walking weather next week on the cards hopefully.. ive been out today and it's a complete shiyt hole, ive even had to wash the dog !

[ARTDEMOLE 261]

We need a change to a brighter outlook...Both man and beast....

[Stuart 534]

some How my last 1 been delete dont khow why so this may got the same way

sorry off topic

[Stuart 534]

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Mar 2013 to Monday 18 Mar 2013:

Some areas still a little colder than average at the start of this period, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK. Nights are then often also likely to be frosty. Also some signs of conditions being a little more unsettled during the early part of this forecast period, perhaps with a chance of snow. Generally, however, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, and taking the period as a whole, some areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual for the time of year. Finally, towards the middle of March temperatures may recover close to the seasonal norm.

Updated: 1110 on Sun 17 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart 534]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Mar 2013 to Tuesday 19 Mar 2013:

Rather unsettled at times towards the northwest of the UK, but largely dry further south and east. Some areas still a little colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some frosty nights. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual for the time of year.

Updated: 1158 on Mon 18 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Don 673]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Mar 2013 to Tuesday 19 Mar 2013:

Rather unsettled at times towards the northwest of the UK, but largely dry further south and east. Some areas still a little colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some frosty nights. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual for the time of year.

Updated: 1158 on Mon 18 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Seems to be a steady backtrack away from potential wintry conditions for the 1st half of March.

Edited February 18, 2013 by Don

[johnholmes 23,940]

One assumes this 'backtrack' as you label it is a scientific assessment of all the data at their disposal to suggest that conditions look now like being less wintry. It would be pretty daft if they did not update do you not think?

Not a reply to you but a comment over some responses to the 6-15 and 16-30 day outlook, especially the latter.

The posts seem to be a mix of

'its the same story why keep issuing the same'

or

they change their mind too often to be reliable

whatever they do it seems they are wrong by some folk-funny really. Reading back over the last few weeks it really is rather funny..

Edited February 18, 2013 by johnholmes

[Don 673]

One assumes this 'backtrack' as you label it is a scientific assessment of all the data at their disposal to suggest that conditions look now like being less wintry. It would be pretty daft if they did not update do you not think?

I was merely commenting on a change in their forecast to something less wintry today. Not a criticism and to be honest I was expecting a downgraded wintry outlook from them. Fine by me.......

Edited February 18, 2013 by Don

[Summer Sun 25,039]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 20 Mar 2013:

Some areas still a little colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some frosty nights. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual for the time of year.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

[Summer Sun 25,039]

UK Outlook for Thursday 7 Mar 2013 to Thursday 21 Mar 2013:

Some areas still a little colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some frosty nights. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual for the time of year.

Updated: 1143 on Wed 20 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun 25,039]

UK Outlook for Friday 8 Mar 2013 to Friday 22 Mar 2013:

Some areas are likely to stay a little colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some more frosty nights to come. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual for the time of year.

Updated: 1147 on Thu 21 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun 25,039]

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Mar 2013 to Saturday 23 Mar 2013:

Some areas are likely to stay a little colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some more frosty nights to come. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual for the time of year.

Updated: 1159 on Fri 22 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun 25,039]

UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Mar 2013 to Sunday 24 Mar 2013:

Most areas are likely to stay colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some more frosty nights to come. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some northwestern areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual, whereas southern and eastern districts will perhaps be wetter than normal.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

[Stuart 534]

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Mar 2013 to Monday 25 Mar 2013:

Most areas are likely to stay colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some more frosty nights to come. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some northwestern areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual, whereas southern and eastern districts will perhaps be wetter than normal.

Updated: 1120 on Sun 24 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart 534]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Mar 2013 to Tuesday 26 Mar 2013:

Most areas are likely to stay colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some more frosty nights to come. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some northwestern areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual, whereas southern and eastern districts will perhaps be wetter than normal.

Updated: 1208 on Mon 25 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart 534]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 27 Mar 2013:

Most areas are likely to stay colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some more frosty nights to come. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some northwestern areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual, whereas southern and eastern districts will perhaps be wetter than normal.

Updated: 1132 on Tue 26 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Stuart 534]

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Mar 2013 to Thursday 28 Mar 2013:

Most areas are likely to stay colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some more frosty nights to come. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some northwestern areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual, whereas southern and eastern districts will perhaps be wetter than normal.

Updated: 1219 on Wed 27 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Summer Sun 25,039]

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Mar 2013 to Friday 29 Mar 2013:

Most areas are likely to be colder than average during the end of March with an east or southeasterly influence most probable. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, in an east or southeasterly regime, some western and northwestern areas of the UK are most likely to be drier and sunnier than normal.

Updated: 1206 on Thu 28 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html