Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

[johnholmes]

snowfall potential here

[bluearmy]

Iceberg's n sea shortwave showing on some ecm members. No surprise to see the atlantic undercutting being inconsistently modelled. Last cold spell downgraded re caa as the stream of undercutting didn't verify. I suggest this isn't done and dusted yet with some surprises feasible as the euro trough sends energy nw. However, this could easily end up a slack easterly followed by a mid lat sinker.

[bluearmy]

.....as is your post in return! lol

Tbh stratty, if we could extract a snowfall out of this, I suspect mindsets could easily flip to chasing the warmth.infact, I imagine most will have had enough of chasing the cold post this block so it may well soon be time to start looking for those spanish plumes! Not sure ian has been on here long enough to see the forum being just as inane in the hunt for heat.

[TEITS]

Not sure ian has been on here long enough to see the forum being just as inane in the hunt for heat.

So true. Not me though because I never understand the point of chasing heatwaves that only make you feel uncomfortable and prevent you from sleeping. Give me model output that suggests sunshine and temps of 25C any day.

On a different note im glad to see even locations such as the W Midlands and Wales are now predicted to see snow flurries on Thursday by the Met O. Like I said though if the current output is correct then the instability will increase towards the weekend as LP transfers to the Med.

[stratty]

Tbh stratty, if we could extract a snowfall out of this, I suspect mindsets could easily flip to chasing the warmth.infact, I imagine most will have had enough of chasing the cold post this block so it may well soon be time to start looking for those spanish plumes! Not sure ian has been on here long enough to see the forum being just as inane in the hunt for heat.

...........since being on this site, this has probably been the best, most exciting winter for chasing cold spells (snow) - obviously not all have come off - but this has always been part of the 'fun' (shame about some of the sniping from once respected posters )

As you said, it is also fun looking for those southerly plumes coming off later in the year.....we are due a good one this year during the summer months! Still fun and games to come methinks for the coldies though!

[Timmytour]

On a more positive note we could yet see a shift N and like Nick S says only a shift of 100miles would make a difference, even better if it was around 300miles N. I would also like to correct an error made my a member saying no streamers are indicated. Let me tell you streamers are a localised feature and the models never pick up on these until 24hrs away at least. The Feb 2009 Thames streamer wasn't modelled until Sunday lunchtime and the streamer arrived 5hrs later.

Indeed...I remember the main forecast warning of the arrival of a period of snow that could be upto six inches from monday lunchtime, while six inches from the streamer that started on the sunday evening was already underway! just as well too as the "main band" of snow turned out to be a wet sleety mix which added nothing to the cover of snow the streamer delivered.

As for what's coming....the cold is setting in so the first tick will be there. I'm pretty optimisitc that a shift north will take place. This will be the one time the late developments of a modelled Easterly will have proved to be for the better

[Coast]

OK folks, a new thread is open here: