Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

Aye, but it has nothing whatever to do with what 'some people want', CC...The fact remains, that not one, single 'stellar run' has yet come to fruition...Is a model 'good' just because it paints a pretty picture, at T+384?

ECM has been trumping the GFS on the longwave pattern since the beginning of January, yeah it has overestimated Easterlies usually due to over strengthening troughs in the Mediterranean, but GFS has been calling flattening out patterns all the time and been proven incorrect, hey if GFS were correct I wouldn't have seen any snow since the beginning of December.

Steve Murr last night put up a comparison of the day 10 chart of the ECM predicting the weather for the 11th with the actual chart, ECM was very close to being spot on.

In the end what do you favour at t144, ECM and UKMO showing pretty much the same thing or GFS in a situation of handling trough disruption by sending it all North East?

Edited February 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[frosty ground]

Aye, but it has nothing whatever to do with what 'some people want', CC...The fact remains, that not one, single 'stellar run' has yet come to fruition...Is a model 'good' just because it paints a pretty picture, at T+384?

No model @ 384 is good, regardless the picture it paints!

AS for Stellar runs, well you would have to define the term Stellar? Or basically do you define stella as what some people want?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Aye, but it has nothing whatever to do with what 'some people want', CC...The fact remains, that not one, single 'stellar run' has yet come to fruition...Is a model 'good' just because it paints a pretty picture, at T+384?

In terms of the general longwave pattern given most have, but unfortunately with toned down uppers they haven't quite come off as we might have liked on the ground. We've had a lot of very messy setups as well with shortwaves in odd places which has meant we've lacked a clean cold airflow, but if the GFS +144/+168 had verified it would have been a mostly 'zonal' winter with no obvious sign of trough disruption at all.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

ECMWF 00z Moyenne/Ensemble s animation .

It is going for colder net week with the Block.

No Atlantik.

[SMU]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

Extended ENS much better today-

Nice GIF from Ryan von snowhosen.

S

[weather eater]

Well personally I've seen more snow falling this winter than the last 3 combined, this allied with the deepest snowfall in 10 years+ Certainly stellar here in Jan. The pretty pictures you speak of have always been out in the realms of FI so to pin hopes on them occurring at that range is foolhardy anyway.

The other models have only been poor if you take 192+ seriously. The GFS has had things mismodelled at 72!

Yep, I’ve seen more snow falls this year than I guess the last five winters put together but frankly none of them have amounted to much and I swop all off those plus the last five winters worth for one truly epic fall, because I can’t get excited about small or moderate falls of snow, cold and sunny would have done me just as well. And we are still having this either or conversation on here, yes the GFS has been rubbish, nobody is saying the ECM has not been significantly better, it’s been pretty good overall, except it over blows easterly’s and then has to backtrack and it’s not just this year either, I’ve no doubt in my mind that we are going to see this again.

[Methuselah]

Well personally I've seen more snow falling this winter than the last 3 combined, this allied with the deepest snowfall in 10 years+ Certainly stellar here in Jan. The pretty pictures you speak of have always been out in the realms of FI so to pin hopes on them occurring at that range is foolhardy anyway.

The other models have only been poor if you take 192+ seriously. The GFS has had things mismodelled at 72!

So have I seen snow, CC, but that's not my point. The GFS has certainly mis-modeled, but so have all the others...'BOOM!', 'epic', 'stellar', 'mild crap' - call them what you will - they still haven't verified...

[SMU]

So have I seen snow, CC, but that's not my point. The GFS has certainly mis-modeled, but so have all the others...'BOOM!', 'epic', 'stellar', 'mild crap' - call them what you will - they still haven't verified...

A few have......

Notably this one being the best-

-3 maxima for the bulk of England & frontal snow.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013011812-0-6.png

Ive just spoken to the mechanics at the GFS, they have made some fine tuning & put a new engine in for the 06z- off for a test run on it in 3 mins.

S

[phil nw.]

To be honest the 00z`s runs are rather disappointing- when looking at them for a widespread cold and snowy spell.

Even the ECM would have the block too close to the UK to direct the coldest air to us.Yes some continental cold does creep in from the east in later frames but a look at the day 10 means show the main plunge of Wintry weather is further east.

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-240.png?0

http://www.meteociel...1-240.GIF?13-12

The pattern is still holding at that stage so a regression of the block NW cannot be discounted but it`s all taking more time.

It looks like a warm up after todays fronts pass through at least for a few days before the heights build far enough north to bring us the colder drift off the continent-at this stage though the outlook is essentially dry and milder but becoming colder later next week with frosts returning with some bright days.

[Summer Sun]

The period from the 14th to 21st ish looks a fairly mild one then after that a cool down is looking likely

Thats based on GFS

Edited February 13, 2013 by Gavin.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The period from the 14th to 21st ish looks a fairly mild one then after that a cool down is looking likely

According to the GFS.....not the UKMO or ECM one should add Gavin..

BFTP

[Nick F]

I haven't got the patience to count out of 51 members, but a glance at the 00z EPS suggests most are congregating around the idea of a high/block close to the NE at t+168 with a flow from the SE or E.

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

So if you want a return to a colder continental flow - it's looking good.

Though I hope it doesn't mean days of slate grey skies and snizzle.

Edited February 13, 2013 by Nick F

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A few have......

Notably this one being the best-

-3 maxima for the bulk of England & frontal snow.

http://modeles.meteo...3011812-0-6.png

Ive just spoken to the mechanics at the GFS, they have made some fine tuning & put a new engine in for the 06z- off for a test run on it in 3 mins.

S

Maybe that is just a Boom-ISH chart Steve, still it was good enough for me as well, nice and wintry. Yes I've experienced better but experienced much much worse too.

I hope you supplied those GFS mechanics with some Panasonic or Makita equipment rather than Homebase own!!

BFTP

[MR EXTREMES]

To be honest the 00z`s runs are rather disappointing- when looking at them for a widespread cold and snowy spell.

Even the ECM would have the block too close to the UK to direct the coldest air to us.Yes some continental cold does creep in from the east in later frames but a look at the day 10 means show the main plunge of Wintry weather is further east.

http://modeles.meteo...snh-0-240.png?0

http://www.meteociel...1-240.GIF?13-12

The pattern is still holding at that stage so a regression of the block NW cannot be discounted but it`s all taking more time.

It looks like a warm up after todays fronts pass through at least for a few days before the heights build far enough north to bring us the colder drift off the continent-at this stage though the outlook is essentially dry and milder but becoming colder later next week with frosts returning with some bright days.

indeed i said this yesterday and got shot down bigtime.

its clear to see even yesterday where the main heights core will be centered and my nail in coffin comment was warranted purely on what the models were suggesting trouble is this winter has been a case of so close yet no cigar.......the best way to view the models is not to get to caught up in the hype simply look at the middle ground and see where its likely to take us.

uk based heights cool days cold nights settled and sunny.

its simple case of a typical feb setup if im wrong i hold my hands high and admit defeat at the hands of the models but i stand by my statement of feb will not go out on a snowy picture.....

but depending on northern blocking march could be a month to watch for a sting in winters tail.

[TEITS]

So have I seen snow, CC, but that's not my point. The GFS has certainly mis-modeled, but so have all the others...'BOOM!', 'epic', 'stellar', 'mild crap' - call them what you will - they still haven't verified...

I can only think of a few stellar runs that have verified in all the years I have been on here, Dec 2009, 10 spring to mind. Lost count how many E,lys have either failed or been downgraded.

My take on this winter is the GFS has certainly been the poorest. However the ECM tends to be OTT at times with the severity of the cold, which leaves the UKMO which in my opinion tends to be the more sensible and more accurate.

indeed i said this yesterday and got shot down bigtime.

its clear to see even yesterday where the main heights core will be centered and my nail in coffin comment was warranted purely on what the models were suggesting trouble is this winter has been a case of so close yet no cigar.......the best way to view the models is not to get to caught up in the hype simply look at the middle ground and see where its likely to take us.

No your comments were wrong because you misread the chart. You expected the next frame to be poor on yesterdays 0Z ECM and the reverse was true.

GFS beginning its usual backtrack.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png

Edited February 13, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Gowon]

GFS backtracking already sending less energy NE.

[-uksnow-]

GFS backtracking already sending less energy NE.

Yes exactly, and I would expect by the midday runs on Friday the GFS will nearly be all there looking like UKMO + GFS.

[TEITS]

Though I hope it doesn't mean days of slate grey skies and snizzle.

Same here.

Im now at the time of year where I want either a cold spell with snow and if that isn't the case then would prefer mild. Checked my meter readings yesterday and I was mortified. I think for the next few months im going on a forced diet which consists of starvation!

Clearly see the backtrack on the GFS if one looks towards the W of Spain and the trough digging further S.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

[Cheshire Freeze]

indeed i said this yesterday and got shot down bigtime.

No, you got pulled up because you picked a chart loaded with wintry potential (energy going under block and HLB building) then proclaimed it was the final nail in the coffin for winter. The irony is you could have taken your pick of any GFS frame but you decided to take a frame from the most wintry run of the evening!

Same here.

Im now at the time of year where I want either a cold spell with snow and if that isn't the case then would prefer mild. Checked my meter readings yesterday and I was mortified. I think for the next few months im going on a forced diet which consists of starvation!

Clearly see the backtrack on the GFS if one looks towards the W of Spain and the trough digging further S.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

De ja vu on that chart Dave. Reminds me of last week's modelling.

[SMU]

Todays low is Next week trigger low-

This is a bit of a forecast-

The Low today will move NE all the way twards Svalbard & then fill slightly before filling & being swept south then west through the block introducing our Easterly- all over the course of 7 days.

The track in Orange is GFS the Red track is my predicted track- the overlay image is 06z GFS.

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

Painful to watch the GFS struggling like this. Less energy going NE and the corrections west have started.

[Tom Quintavalle]

No, you got pulled up because you picked a chart loaded with wintry potential (energy going under block and HLB building) then proclaimed it was the final nail in the coffin for winter. The irony is you could have taken your pick of any GFS frame but you decided to take a frame from the most wintry run of the evening!

De ja vu on that chart Dave. Reminds me of last week's modelling.

Agree with comments above and we're already starting to see a backtrack from the 06z GFS ,isnt this the run that tends to push Atlantic attacks too far N and E as well, its happened quite a few times this winter.

I've noticed this model has struggled especially in the area of a rough triangle from say, Iceland, Svarlbard, Norway.

Lets see how the 12zs perform, hopefully more westward correction!

Regards,

Tom.

Edited February 13, 2013 by TomSE20

[MR EXTREMES]

Same here.

Im now at the time of year where I want either a cold spell with snow and if that isn't the case then would prefer mild. Checked my meter readings yesterday and I was mortified. I think for the next few months im going on a forced diet which consists of starvation!

Clearly see the backtrack on the GFS if one looks towards the W of Spain and the trough digging further S.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1201.png

i do agree yes i did post before seeing the whole run but im on the fence because fi is t144 but the gfs has on this recent run backtracked but then the ecm has to so still t144 being fi more to come over the next two days.

with two weeks of feb left can we get the sledges ready one more time.......i still feel heights will be to close or over us for the rest of feb.

[Nick F]

Yes, GFS doesn't like to give in easily! Small increments towards the Euros. 06z GFS looks good up to around t+132, with Atlantic troughing digging SE to the SW of the UK, but still has the split flow with energy going NE as well as SE allowing LP close to the NW of the UK preventing HP to the NE bringing colder continental air in.

Another improvement with the 06z is the jet profile over eastern Europe, with the jet going SW rather than south on the 00z.

Edited February 13, 2013 by Nick F

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Exciting times ahead with the potential for high pressure to set up in a favorable position for the UK to have one final decent cold spell before Spring arrives. What the models are showing at the moment is a brucie bonus as normally at this time of year Spring would be rearing it's head in the models - Lets all enjoy because winter will be over again before we know it :-)