Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

[The Northern Ramper]

GEM goes pretty much the GFS route to the mid term (120/144) while NOGAPS is closer to UKMO for the same period.

One of these days it will have called it right but that will be more luck than judgement. It is hopeless with this set up as it has shown in recent weeks, failing at t72 for example.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

NOGAPS 00z , Navy model from USA .

It delivers us a strong Highpressue systeem with strong element in it also in the top .

It brings a easterly for the UK en west Europe ect.

Important to know is that there is than at that moment a cold pool in Europe en ist flowing to Brittain with this synoptische solution from the Nogaps. Btw it will be replaced en upgrade the Nogaps ?

Also i see good snow showers for your eastcoast , there will be for sure convection.

Also we see a Canadian block on the road.

On the other side we see the Polar Vortex trying to break out to the south about the eastside from Sweden.

UKMO is ok en also Nogaps 00z today.

I still believe in a cold or cool solution for the UK en my country as well.

[shaky]

Very good start from ecm!!follows ukmo exactly right up to 120 hours!!

[Ian Brown]

ECM looks very interesting at T144, can we get the block in the right place in the later timeframes ?

[shaky]

Ecm is a beauty so far!!

[Jason M]

ECM and METO at 144 look very similar indeed. No guarantees of course but at that range you surely must bet on METO and ECM.

Jason

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Breaking News again from the ECMWF.

The battle between the giants GFS versus ECMWF is just begun.

The Europeans against the USA.

A good set up at like UKMO from 120 hours - 168 hours.

Also Nogaps 00z with cold solution.

I chose Ecmwf en you ?

[Ian Brown]

Southerly tracking jet by T192, we need to see the High move to Iceland/Greenland. Good trends anyway. I suspect the GFS is throwing too much energy NE as it has done so on several occasions this winter.

[winterof79]

UKMO and ECM up to 144z http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?13-06

http://www.meteociel...1-144.GIF?13-12 Edit: As per Jason M

That would suggest the way we are heading in reliable time frame.

This could be where we are heading thereafter

http://www.meteociel...0-192.GIF?13-12

http://www.meteociel...1-192.GIF?13-12 HLB.

Edited February 13, 2013 by winterof79

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Amazing today with the 00z GFS en ECMWF.

The battle or differences begin right at the 72 hours synoptische situation.

[Ian Brown]

ECM T216 chart at least looks like the T240 did last night, it's a question of getting the block in the right place, we need it far enough away from us to bring the cold unstable uppers in.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

ECMWF for the fifth run at row with a huge stunnig MAJOR PROJEKTION .

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

ECM T216 chart at least looks like the T240 did last night, it's a question of getting the block in the right place, we need it far enough away from us to bring the cold unstable uppers in.

That can be fixed later ,. lets hope first the evolution will play good out starting at 72 hours -120 .

After that we wil have the shot !

[That ECM]

ECM T216 chart at least looks like the T240 did last night, it's a question of getting the block in the right place, we need it far enough away from us to bring the cold unstable uppers in.

Totally agree, if the high sits over us then the cold air will go below us. T240 demonstrates this. As good as ECM looks it could be showing the block to far nw west of us. Meto outlook would suggest to me that they do not see the block as ECM would have us believe but more over us. Time will tell but at least it's the ECM that's showing us this. As sm demonstrated it is has been doing well of late.

[Duane S.]

Even though the ECM is (another) excellent run, especially for the south, we do need the block a bit further north.Even so I'm not sure what to make of +216 to +240,I thought D10 would have looked a bit better than that following on from +216. No complaints though, Euros steadfast in a spell of colder weather heading our way whilst the GFS carries on like a stuck record

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

A few things to note this morning .

The ECM again has the PV dropping toward to us from the pole , it looks vicious , and with it associated very very cold air .

The other thing, the gfs ens , are now hinting at mojor cold outbreak , the op was an outlier for Gloucestershire Throughout , and there is some ens now dropping through the roof . This happens in the past leading to something big.

I'm becoming more confident by the day.

[Guest bjaykent]

Looking at ECM 240, the block to NW being squeezed by PV, will be interesting to see the eventual position of any lobe coming down, hopefully this will be over Scandi in further runs with strong block over Greenland not unlike Dec 2010?

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

PRIMARY for the south a bitterly cold NE or East at 192 hours.

By 2040 chart is also very good , still very cold , en the High above Schotland will be swallow up by the than to form Greenland high.

Look above , you see enormous rise in pressure near Canada /Pool .1050 MB big brother , he is moving east to Greenland , he will eat the Scottisch High up at 240 charts , look at it good and also above en downstairs , couse Jetstream is going towards Spain.

At the same time the polar air is trying to move south toward Scandinavie.

It has a great ,,very great chanse of succeeding in it

En in the mean time there is also a formaat for a cold pool in Europe him self.

Spring is long way to go en no strong Atlantik in the 3e decade februari.

Beyond that we discuss that later on.

[snowking]

A few things to note this morning .

The ECM again has the PV dropping toward to us from the pole , it looks vicious , and with it associated very very cold air .

The other thing, the gfs ens , are now hinting at mojor cold outbreak , the op was an outlier for Gloucestershire Throughout , and there is some ens now dropping through the roof . This happens in the past leading to something big.

I'm becoming more confident by the day.

On that note too - it remains an outlier against its own ensemble suite, and that of the GEM, in terms of the NAO projections too

Ens mean heights still keen this morning on HP over and to the N of the uk, and that had remained the same now for some days.

We have to work with cold and dry for now, and hope for some retrogression eventually

SK

[Liam J]

More evidence on the table now to suggest we are heading for quite a significant cold spell as we move towards the back end of winter. ECM still looks fantastic even with some slight inter-run differences but it maintains the theme of blocking to out NW and seriously deep cold air heading towards the UK from the North Pole, UKMO also starting to look interesting and some good agreement with the ECM by T144.

If we can establish the blocking in the right place then we may very well experience the coldest and snowiest weather of the whole winter, a big ask but confidence is steadily increasing for a notable wintry outbreak.

Edited February 13, 2013 by Liam J

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Good agreement @ T144 from the UKMO and ECM for high pressure to move to the North of the UK (hopefully over time moving to the promised land lol).

The GFS is lagging behind again - IMO the GFS has really turned into a giant turd of a model

[Stu_London]

Even though the ECM is (another) excellent run, especially for the south, we do need the block a bit further north.Even so I'm not sure what to make of +216 to +240,I thought D10 would have looked a bit better than that following on from +216. No complaints though, Euros steadfast in a spell of colder weather heading our way whilst the GFS carries on like a stuck record

Agree

that would be my only gripe with the ECM. It's already a bit too far south - any further and we get stuck under the block while France and Spain go into the freezer.

[MKN]

Gfs based on this winter so far has been really poor past +72 whilst at the same time one of the best inside +48. So I wouldn't bin it at least for its impressive short term predictions. As for +72 onwards you have to favour a blend of ECM and the UKMO if past form is what you go by.

[Stu_London]

The GFS is lagging behind again - IMO the GFS has really turned into a giant turd of a model

I'm not necessarily disagreeing but might be best to see how things pan out.

It's very easy to be full of praise for a model when it is showing the type of weather that you like

[bluearmy]

A couple of you spotted the reason for the latter frames of the ecm run being unable to transfer the block far enough north - the polar profile. From my perspective, its either jam next week if the arctic allows the ridge to migrate to the north/northwest or jam the following week as the vortex drops into scandinavia. There is a risk that the latter scenario could take the deepest cold to our east as our block tries to hold on before being squeezed out. What is taking shape is that somewhere to our east is going to see a possible record breaking cold end to winter.

The shortwave saga for next week continues. Although the trend over the past 24 hours has been to drop it further to our se so we only get the waft of the cold uppers as opposed to any instability, remebering back a few years when we folllowed a simlar saga, if we are to get struck by this little fella, some of the runs will have to show it over the next day or so. All is definitely not lost on this feature for the time being.