winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[Dave Kightley]

One of though runs I wish went further....Had a sniff of the CFS charts I reckon

Edited February 9, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[IDO]

The GFS 0z is zonal from midweek right out till the end of FI:

T138: T384:

The GEFS suggest the UK remaining cool but no clear trend to anything cold or wintry (south):

ECM again trending towards a return to average/ above average 850s:

As the UK sits somewhere close to a HP cell with the Atlantic never far away:

T192: T240: So nothing wintry in the medium term (D5 on).

The snow event: GFS has very little snow at sea level south of Birmingham. The DPs remain too high eg:

The best GFS (IMBY) chart was 1800 tomorrow: This suggests snow for 400m plus in the SE corner.

The NMM (hi-res) has the far SE corner getting low enough DPs for sea level snow (1800 tom):

That is very short lived, as the snow line pushes back north:

So high risk remains the Midlands, EA and East Wales; as well as high ground.

Edited February 9, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

At LT also the Ec operationeel is like GEM trending towards a Greenland High for the 3e decade februari . chart from 240.By switching fase ,the power from the Heights from Scandi to later Greenalnd will be a litlle mild interlude for Brittain , if EC oper is on the right track.

But even in the interlude fase perhaps , i still see no strong atlantic.

But for short en medium charts Ec is pretty good for some cold weather with snow events.

[bluearmy]

The pattern post midweek seems flacid and non decisive. The only trend evident cross model is the possible mid atlantic height rise around day 10/12.

Gfs continues to trough disrupt but just a bit too far east to be of interest to us. Other models sniffing around this but as I said, no strong direction of travel after wed. Either it will be quite non descript and avaerage ish or something will pop up at short notice to skew it one way or another. I doubt the track of tomorrows little fella quite pinned down beyond its initial placement.

[london-snow]

As a south easterner i would be encouraged from the over night runs. That LP is trending sw and as we can see on the snow risk chart a few posts above. Another trend south which is very possible and we could be the main parts of the country to get hit on sunday. Its going right down to the wire i feel.

[MKN]

As a south easterner i would be encouraged from the over night runs. That LP is trending sw and as we can see on the snow risk chart a few posts above. Another trend south which is very possible and we could be the main parts of the country to get hit on sunday. Its going right down to the wire i feel.

A further shift south would see everyone miss out. The heavy precip is already in the far south. The midlands were looking at 10-20mms yesterday today its 4-5 of which not all will be snow and not all will settle. The south gets heavier stuff currently but only those in Kent look like having favourable conditions at the same time for snow.

[london-snow]

Well a nice Shepard's warning sunrise here in sw london as to whether or not its for snow sleet or rain is another question.

Looking forward to todays runs to see if that LP tracks further sw.

[lindy2017]

Think we'll have to go back to looking out the window .........

[london-snow]

A further shift south would see everyone miss out. The heavy precip is already in the far south. The midlands were looking at 10-20mms yesterday today its 4-5 of which not all will be snow and not all will settle. The south gets heavier stuff currently but only those in Kent look like having favourable conditions at the same time for snow.

Now we are talking less than 50 miles lol that's what i love about these events aim low think high & you may be suprised.

[Mark Neal.]

Think we'll have to go back to looking out the window .........

Yup, and it's snowing here :-)

Anyway back to models... A trend for the system to be further south again come Sunday evening and the snowline down through SE England, Further trending today and we could see more of us come in the game further south. The only problem perhaps as some models are. showing this morning is that the heavier precip focused further south.

[IanM]

There's a model moods and emotions thread for a reason, please use it. The constant off topic posts in here are overwhelming the thread.

think before you post, if you aren't 100% certain that it is model related, then don't use this thread.

Thanks

[chionomaniac]

Please keep on topic - there is far too much time and energy spent discussing other members posts that are discussing the models, rather than discussing what is actually shown on the models themselves.

Any posts that continue in this same vein are likely to last as long as snow in Cork.

Edit I see Ian beat me too it!

Edited February 9, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Matty M]

well ECM dilutes the cold air advection.

one has to give the GFS credit here, it's solution for this has been more consistent.

[abruzzi spur]

This suggests snow for 400m plus in the SE corner.

And where excactly is 400m+ ground in the South East corner?! Even if you stand on the top of Leith Hill tower (highest point in SE England) you are only at c 320m, so you'd have to jump pretty high to catch a snowflake!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Please keep on topic - there is far too much time and energy spent discussing other members posts that are discussing the models, rather than discussing what is actually shown on the models themselves.

Any posts that continue in this same vein are likely to last as long as snow in Cork.

Edit I see Ian beat me too it!

Haha snow in cork ? Do they even know what it is . . . Apparently they have a lot of hail though !!

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, the ECM and the Met office look reasonable still for a cold 'snap'?

As for tomorrow, the fact that I've just watched the weather forecast on the BBC saying I'm sitting under heavy rain atm, whereas it's snowing heavily outside here in the Midlands, shows the uncertainty of the situation.

It's gonna be a radar watcher tomorrow and thereafter is going to be in the laps of the gods by all accounts.

I don't think I've ever seen a winter that's been so uncertain as this one??

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

En after the front/band what most forget is the heavy snow showers that wil floow up , they will come from Denmark en the Nordsea to your coastal area s en further land also to the southeast .

That i am sure of it.

Look at the chart , en at 850 HP is -9 or -10 is most parts .

It is very hard to see wen the low wil split.

It could be nothing at all or something we will remember.

All options open en still on the weather table.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Coast

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Blimey im an optimist but come on Blast we are not looking at a prolonged cold spell with deep cold...its staring s in the face for a mixed out cooler spell with a mix of snow, rain etc.....the mid range doesnt even show us anything cold now to be honest....PV trying to reform.....just maybe a high giving us chilly nights.

Well until we get the models getting it right mid term, which they consistently have failed to do all winter [each in turn have singularly got reasonably close on occasion as others changed at short notice to 'jump on board'] I will take them with huge pinch of salt [MUST WATCH MY BLOOD PRESSURE tho]. They can't even pinpoint Sun / Mon.

BFTP

Edited February 9, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[london-snow]

En after the front/band what most forget is the heavy snow showers that wil floow up , they will come from Denmark en the Nordsea to your coastal area s en further land also to the southeast .

That i am sure of it.

Look at the chart , en at 850 HP is -9 or -10 is most parts .

Am liking that chart very much shows streamer potential for the south east. A great set of charts with great potential if your from my part of the land this morning. Although until things firm up it remains potential and that's all.

[Coast]

Time for a new thread, please note the comments in the first post and we can all then enjoy this topic: