Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.

[Nick F]

120 UKMO Fax

Carbon copy of 12z UKMO from the looks of it. Very positive indeed.

SK

If only 18z GFS would agree! GFS looks a bit disappointing with the position of the low further east and temps/Dps too high for precip to fall as snow.

But, Sunday is a long way off to grumble over the position of lows, which will not be nailed this far off. So all to play for.

Edited February 5, 2013 by Nick F

[chionomaniac]

New fax chart for 120 hrs,slider anyone?

If the GFS 18Z had a fax equivalent it couldn't look more different.

I would like to know what the 850's would be for that fax - I suspect the ECM is closer than the GFS.

[Rammie]

Looks like rain for most to me - can't see much of note there for snow fans.

, me neither. Cold rain it is then,!

[Cloud 10]

It needs a System Restore and Defrag

Maybe something stronger?

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS is causing annoyance in the USA also at the moment. Huge difference between GFS and ECM and UKMO in regards to potential significant nor'easter. ECM has huge snowfall totals whereas the GFS has much less with the system much further east and in the atlantic, a short timeframe also.

I'm glad we're not funding the GFS. I'd want a refund and compensation for stress related symptoms!

[bluearmy]

Re the T 120 fax - if it looks like that tomorrow (T96), it will be he first time in a long time !

That apart, there is plenty of snow on that chart.

[snowking]

The 528 dam line is not conducive for snow for the UK on that chart? Rain?

Two things. Firstly, given the feed from the near continent, the 528DAM isn't the key for snowfall potential, but it wasn't specifically this I was getting at. If you look at the progression from 120-144 on the UKMO, which is near identical to the ECMWF, and the subsequent ECM progression, the fact that this is now where Exeter are placing their money can only be viewed as positive. If they felt that the UKMO/ECM was incorrect, and they had data suggesting strongly a different path (MOGREPS perhaps) then this would have been modified

SK

[Dunstable Snow]

Re the T 120 fax - if it looks like that tomorrow (T96), it will be he first time in a long time !

That apart, there is plenty of snow on that chart.

Agree totally - that chart would produce a lot snow to central and easten parts. I just cant make sense of the GFS tbh. If i performed like that at work I would have been out of a job by now. Why do we bother ?

[Weathizard]

Will be interesting to see what FI brings, much as I dislike the GFS at the moment its produced 2 very good FI's in the last two runs a trend that would be nice to see continue considering this run is very poor compared to the EC and UKm.

Any news on the ECM ens, viewing the GFS 12z ens there's been a massive switch long term with the mean at around -4/5 throughout, where as a few days ago it was 0 from 240 onwards.

[Cloud 10]

If the GFS 18Z had a fax equivalent it couldn't look more different.

I would like to know what the 850's would be for that fax - I suspect the ECM is closer than the GFS.

The 18z nogaps/navgem looks like a decent match for the 120 hrs fax.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Will be interesting to see what FI brings, much as I dislike the GFS at the moment its produced 2 very good FI's in the last two runs a trend that would be nice to see continue considering this run is very poor compared to the EC and UKm.

Any news on the ECM ens, viewing the GFS 12z ens there's been a massive switch long term with the mean at around -4/5 throughout, where as a few days ago it was 0 from 240 onwards.

This is what I can't get my head around.....it's very good long term but pants short term. It's like a micro CFS

[bradymk]

The 18z nogaps/navgem looks like a decent match for the 120 hrs fax.

A quick question for anyone, my worst hated model the mighty NOGAPS has been very good in the last week when I have viewed it and has been very similar to ECM on a few runs. On meteociel it says it will be replaced by NAVGEM in February so just wondering if it has already been replaced or is NOGAPS going out with its head held high, for the first time.

[Dunstable Snow]

This is what I can't get my head around.....it's very good long term but pants short term. It's like a micro CFS

It ask questions and throws out scenario's but unless the answer is straightforward and the norm it hasnt got a clue and will always be a follower. I have worked with a fair few of those over those years.....

[chionomaniac]

The 18z nogaps/navgem looks like a decent match for the 120 hrs fax.

with decent 850's...

[pages]

A quick question for anyone, my worst hated model the mighty NOGAPS has been very good in the last week when I have viewed it and has been very similar to ECM on a few runs. On meteociel it says it will be replaced by NAVGEM in February so just wondering if it has already been replaced or is NOGAPS going out with its head held high, for the first time.

Does seem strange doesn't it. If the ECM is right the nogaps is going to verify better than the gfs for at least a couple of days next week.

I have a sneaky suspicions that it is really the new model as the nogaps intra run coincidence used to be awful and is much improved in the last 2 weeks.

Would make commercial sense to test the model under the old name. Show the world the improved verification stats then officially change the name.

[Weathizard]

And if by magic GFS throws in the tease again, heights going into Greenland at 324. Comical.

[Panayiotis]

And again we have the heights go towards Greenland at the end of the run....

[Dunstable Snow]

A quick question for anyone, my worst hated model the mighty NOGAPS has been very good in the last week when I have viewed it and has been very similar to ECM on a few runs. On meteociel it says it will be replaced by NAVGEM in February so just wondering if it has already been replaced or is NOGAPS going out with its head held high, for the first time.

Time will tell - if it continues to show trough disruption to the west of the Uk and Ireland and energy heading south east with an intensifying cold pool over northern europe and scandinavia I am sure it will be popular whatever it is called !

[Panayiotis]

I dont know if anyone noticed this, but the 12z ensembles show a lot of the members going for heights towards Greenland, this is also shown by the ensemble spread. I wonder what it would look when the 18z ensembles come out?...

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&ech=384

Edited February 5, 2013 by Panayiotis

[AmershamMike]

Why does the netweather site use the Gfs output for its forecasts if it is so pony??!

[peterf]

Why does the netweather site use the Gfs output for its forecasts if it is so pony??!

Good question.

[CWT2012]

GFS has lost all credibility this winter, any GFS run should be taken with a mountain of salt not a pinch

[manutdmatt1986]

Why does the netweather site use the Gfs output for its forecasts if it is so pony??!

The GFS is the only model that has all of it's data publically available for free. You get what you pay for I guess

[Djdazzle]

Good question.

I believe it's the only model where all of its data is freely available.

[peterf]

I believe it's the only model where all of its data is freely available.

Yeah it is,but what's the use of useless data?