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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

A sign of the times

Last Nights FAX for 12z Friday:

post-1038-0-78189700-1360101074_thumb.gi

And todays:

fax72s.gif?05-12

That occlusion shifted a fair way west, reflecting the overall trend of the day

SK

Yes and with the 528dam line to the west of Wales, that occluded front could well produce snow...
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

GFS still further east even in the relatively short time frame at T+72 when compared to the ECM and UKMO. Very different 850 temp profile at an early stage

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

I doubt there will be too much precip left on it by friday.

What makes you think that? Edited by Panayiotis
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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)

Any news on the ECM ens tonight?? Or have I missed the chat in the last thread.

Cheers guys.

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

What makes you think that?

It's pretty much a dead occusion from the first shortwave which was originally supposed to topple the ridge (according to models a few days day). It's a very weak front but might bring a dusting of snow

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

GFS still further east even in the relatively short time frame at T+72 when compared to the ECM and UKMO. Very different 850 temp profile at an early stage

Yes and the ECM has, from what I can see, near enough 100% support from its own suite at 72 hours. Something is so badly wrong somewhere that t72 is providing an issue for the GFS. Top 3 model?

Can't fathom whether it's a data or programming issue (probably a bit of both) but it's been woeful since the turn of the year.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

Well the GFS remains very different to the Euro models for the weekend with Saturday and Sunday reasonably mild days, rain spreading East on Sunday.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Yes and the ECM has, from what I can see, near enough 100% support from its own suite at 72 hours. Something is so badly wrong somewhere that t72 is providing an issue for the GFS. Top 3 model?

DO You think its time to plug the gfs out and back in again!rofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

My word the gfs is still way east!!what the hells going on with that model??every other model is in agreement yet this one still wants to be a pain in the backside'!!

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

A sign of the times

Last Nights FAX for 12z Friday:

post-1038-0-78189700-1360101074_thumb.gi

And todays:

fax72s.gif?05-12

That occlusion shifted a fair way west, reflecting the overall trend of the day

SK

New fax chart for 120 hrs,slider anyone?

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

DO You think its time to plug the gfs out and back in again!rofl.gif

I don't know but if it is indeed wrong again this time something is very errant and needs addressing. It's embarrassing quite frankly.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Yes and the ECM has, from what I can see, near enough 100% support from its own suite at 72 hours. Something is so badly wrong somewhere that t72 is providing an issue for the GFS. Top 3 model?

Can't fathom whether it's a data or programming issue (probably a bit of both) but it's been woeful since the turn of the year.

GFS FI started on the 12Z at around T+72. If we hadn't seen exactly the same in January then we would be very concerned. But the GFS has very recent form in this regard and is still not to be trusted. I wouldn't go against the UKMO. I suspect that the ECM is a little too west though.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

120 UKMO Fax

fax120s.gif?05-12

Carbon copy of 12z UKMO from the looks of it. Very positive indeed.

SK

Yes, slider going to occur based on that.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

gfs-0-120.png?18

very strange no were near ecm at +120

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City

120 UKMO Fax

fax120s.gif?05-12

Carbon copy of 12z UKMO from the looks of it. Very positive indeed.

SK

Looks like rain for most to me - can't see much of note there for snow fans.

Edited by NickR
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Posted
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and dry or cold and snowy, but please not mild and rainy!
  • Location: Dulwich Hill, Sydney, Australia

GFS 18z very different and hopefully wrong. Really pushes through the atlantic, and although it build heights in scandi faster, its squeezing them out at +100hrs

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

120 UKMO Fax

fax120s.gif?05-12

Carbon copy of 12z UKMO from the looks of it. Very positive indeed.

SK

yes there must be a lot of head scratching going on in Exeter over the past day or two or more.

They are obviously well aware of how difficult it is for warm Atlantic air to shift deep cold air but it is still a hard call to make beyond the weekend. The 500mb charts are 50:50 I would suggest, see my posts in the other thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

120 UKMO Fax

fax120s.gif?05-12

Carbon copy of 12z UKMO from the looks of it. Very positive indeed.

SK

The 528 dam line is not conducive for snow for the UK on that chart? Rain?

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

So on the one hand we have the ECM and UKMO in excellent agreement for the weekend and on the other hand we have the GFS, a model which to be frank would struggle to pick out a cold spell in Siberia at the moment.

But if it turns out to be right, I will be big enough to come back on here and say I was wrong!

Edited by Chalk Serpent
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

GFS is causing annoyance in the USA also at the moment. Huge difference between GFS and ECM and UKMO in regards to potential significant nor'easter. ECM has huge snowfall totals whereas the GFS has much less with the system much further east and in the atlantic, a short timeframe also.

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