Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS sort of in and out this run but moving well towards the ECM. Retrogression is underway and is a stronger signal which should see the cotinuation of HP to our east backing west, and yes eventually onto Greenland to prolong the cold. Atlantic to play a part but slide under....maybe we are now seeing the shift in the models to the 'outcome' ?

The RJS retrograde block marches forth...what ENS from ECM.....I'll get out of the control room now. Up at 5 for work so will peak at 00z before I set of...more more more

BFTP

Edited February 3, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

I'm not quite ready to commit to humble pie...Coming soon though, I hope!

[Panayiotis]

The problem as I see it, people are falling hook line and sinker for one particular run.

One run plus the ECM and ensembles... Edited February 3, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Buzz]

The problem as I see it, people are falling hook line and sinker for one particular run.

No they're not - they're looking at the GFS slowly but surely backtrack towards the ECM.

[-uksnow-]

The problem as I see it, people are falling hook line and sinker for one particular run.

No, we are alot more level headed than that - well...

Actually the GFS has been playing backtrack since Friday towards ECM, UKMO is still looking ok, ECM's consistency is great, one step at a time we are moving forward..

[Guest bjaykent]

Jet stream driving south and a very scary pair of eyes showing over Greenland LOL

[ChartViewer]

All over...CMA not buying it

[Timmytour]

Jet stream driving south and a very scary pair of eyes showing over Greenland LOL

I suppose that could be seen as the GFS bending over providing the ECM with a couple of opportunities to....ahem...

[Supacell]

And the colder scenarios look to start flexing there mussels on the 18z GFS, the ECM and GFS moving away from what has been chalk and cheese to more like fish and chips. I'll halibut of that

[damianslaw]

Gfs today has behaved in exactly thé same way it did when it finally latched onto the jan cold spell, on that occasion we saw each run shift everything westwards and then the trigger se shortwave. The situation we have now is different to 3 to 4 weeks ago, the pv is slightly weaker but more importantly we are seeing much stronger heights building westwards out of Russia, height risse to out ne are this much more likely to be stronger and robust than in jan, aided by the russian heights.

[Long haul to mild]

All over...CMA not buying it

Disaster. If CMA is not in, then I'm not either. The final nail in the coffin of this winter, no trout about it.

Please note that the above comments may contain traces of sarcasm (and fish).

Edited February 3, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[Dunstable Snow]

One run plus the ECM and ensembles...

one run plus 6 xECM runs and a very strong set of 12z ECM ensembles today ! Just want to see the UKMO on board over the next 24 hours and we can start to look forward to a prolonging of the cold and many more parts of the country enjoying the snow. I have to admit to have been fearing the worst over the last day or so when viewing each ECM run given the debacle last December partciularly given the meto retiscence thus far to really by in to the ECM op solutions but I am feeling quite a bit more confident tonight on a cold and snowy outcome. If the East does win out the developments with the Canadian segment of the PV over the coming weeks and the position of our cold block perfectly placed to move west and an attractive northern latitiude for cold to our shores could well lead to us enjoying a very prolonged cold spell and if that is the case then hats off to RJS/BFP and GP. I really do hope so and I think some of the analysis on here has been excellent (SM in particular) whatever the eventual outcome.

[weather eater]

I’m not sure the GFS is backtracking towards the ECM, seems like a bit of movement from both, pretty much what you would expect, however as long as they are both going for a cold outlook who cares, both look lively, the ECM by far the better of the two.

[swfc]

Anyway the gfs as brought things more into line on the pub run and leaves tom full of potential.know doubt there will be more twists and turns and also the ukmo is for me the model to watch.Certainly left me with a breaming smile tonight

[Timmytour]

It looks all over for the reputation of the GFS handling this particular situation....but is the fat lady ready to sing and who has she got accompanying her?

Would like to first know whether or not she's being backed up by a mean Bass Ensemble

[Long haul to mild]

I think the 00z runs are going to be quite nerve wracking in the morning.

That is if I can salmon up the courage to look at them at all........

Seriously though, will be interesting to see if the GFS continues it gradual backtrack (which seemed to speed up on the 18z) and whether ECM will hold firm. I will be personally interested in the UKMO charts as the end of the week comes into its reliable range.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[Alpine glow]

Well I hope that the ECM continues with it's current trend and tomorrow we don't wake up to a different dory.

You have all had me literally laughing out loud tonight!

Thanks for the smiles.

[Lampostwatcher]

I've had a whale of a time looking at the models tonight time to hit the sack , take my kippers off and look forward to a good skate to work in the morning

[gottolovethisweather]

Are we locking this thread any time soon or are we locking up its participants firstly.

Please get back on topic and don't bite on the bait that others provide.

Enjoy this upcoming week's weather wherever you are, it's going to be a memorable one for quite a few of us.

Simply perfect models of late. I couldn't of made them any better myself.

Edited February 3, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[bryan629]

bet ya 5 squid you would,

Even Micheal Fish i think would clam up with the thought of a forecast from this out put. you would have to dredge the archives to find anything close. If this verified i can sea mr Murr doing the conger.

i wonder if he`ll do that in black lace and fish nets

[ChartViewer]

Latest 500 cpc anomaly charts....

[gottolovethisweather]

Is this clearer for you lot.

Are we locking this thread any time soon or are we locking up its participants firstly.

Please get back on topic and don't bite on the bait that others provide.

Enjoy this upcoming week's weather wherever you are, it's going to be a memorable one for quite a few of us.

Simply perfect models of late. I couldn't of made them any better myself.

So good, I had to say things twice.

[Tamara]

Well I hope that the ECM continues with it's current trend and tomorrow we don't wake up to a different dory.

You have all had me literally laughing out loud tonight!

Thanks for the smiles.

Yes, a pleasant diversion

On topic - the wishbone effect will probably come into play with this weeks northerly

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn784.png

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Latest 500 cpc anomaly charts....

Lots of northern blocking prevalent there , the trough sat over us is interesting , ideally we would wanto see that move southeast somewhat , or as long as the air is cold embedded in the trough then that could well spell cold and snowy .

[snow raven]

Enough of the fish jokes now everyone (I am personally thankful the warnings picture wasn't more rude like!!)

Can we all get back on topic now please?!

Edited February 3, 2013 by snow raven