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Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Everyone knows the score by now. Model discussion only here please and politeness, courtesy and respect to all other posters and views are the order of the day - thanks!

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Posted
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Sunny and Dry with a Hard Frost.
  • Location: Farnham, Surrey

Sometimes you don't need to see the models to make a judgement on the level of exciting output? Nothing since 14.11? Hmmmm...I suspect there is no prospect of the mother of all eaterlies in the imminent future then??! LOL!

then again....i've seen worse prospects...

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Why was everyone hitting on the GFS 6Z?

gfsnh-0-384.png?6

Massive pacific very little energy in Greenland/Canadian area with mass heights northwards and low heights in Europe.

That screams potential and plus its in FI so nothing to worry about.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire

The Meto seem convinced there is no significant cold or wintry spell in the next couple of weeks.

If so then the ECM 32 dayer will have been of no better use than an astray on a motorbike this

winter with regards to northern blocking etc.

I myself am still optimistic and will reserve judgement until this evenings model outputs are in although

I do believe we will see a fairly potent cold spell from the east be it later than originally anticipated

perhaps.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

GFS and UKMO at T72 ish have some fairly heavy wintry showers piling into Ireland and the north. Carried along by a strong wind.

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

12z

gfsnh-0-96.png?12

Less energy tad further west better heights north.

6z

gfsnh-0-102.png?6

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

The Meto seem convinced there is no significant cold or wintry spell in the next couple of weeks.

If so then the ECM 32 dayer will have been of no better use than an astray on a motorbike this

winter with regards to northern blocking etc.

I myself am still optimistic and will reserve judgement until this evenings model outputs are in although.

Agreed. We keep hearing that it has strong signal for a greeny high or strong heights to our north west since December. It's now Feb and we are still waiting! I think the ECM is a red herring and not really supported by its ensembles. We could still see some marginal snow ala GFS 06z and plenty of wintry showers but I think we've lucked out on any more prolonged deep cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

Sometimes you don't need to see the models to make a judgement on the level of exciting output? Nothing since 14.11? Hmmmm...I suspect there is no prospect of the mother of all eaterlies in the imminent future then??! LOL!

then again....i've seen worse prospects...

  • thats because there havent been any models out since 10.00 this morning

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

The Meto seem convinced there is no significant cold or wintry spell in the next couple of weeks.

If so then the ECM 32 dayer will have been of no better use than an astray on a motorbike this

winter with regards to northern blocking etc.

I myself am still optimistic and will reserve judgement until this evenings model outputs are in although

I do believe we will see a fairly potent cold spell from the east be it later than originally anticipated

perhaps.

Not just the ECM 32 dayer's either, all the teleconnections and strat updates have been just as bad.
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Why was everyone hitting on the GFS 6Z?

gfsnh-0-384.png?6

Massive pacific very little energy in Greenland/Canadian area with mass heights northwards and low heights in Europe.

That screams potential and plus its in FI so nothing to worry about.

This is the first time i have seen an Alaskan high modeled all winter which is a good thing...however is deep FI so take no notice
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

GFS and UKMO at T72 ish have some fairly heavy wintry showers piling into Ireland and the north. Carried along by a strong wind.

GFS especially:

72_20.gif

78_20.gif

84_20.gif

90_20.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Not just the ECM 32 dayer's either, all the teleconnections and strat updates have been just as bad.

.....whereas your thorough and comprehensive analysis and predictions have been top class.......

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Better heights to the north and northeast at t132, interesting.

Yep better run thus far...

The start of another GFS backtrack?

UKMO looks good at 120

UN120-21.GIF?01-17

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Even with a far from ideal pattern I can see 2 possible snow events next week. 1st on tues / tues night as the low to the our NE slips south creating the northerly. This could bring snow to many. Then on Thurs as the Atlantic tries to come in there is some trough disruption allowing the cold air to hang around and this could bring some more widespread snow. It's going to be mainly high ground and it may not last long but at least it's something to keep us sadies... I mean collides entertained!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=90&mode=2

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

its as flat as a pancake

It's not, much improved on the 6z

You only have to look at the jet stream...

6z..

hgt300.png

12z....

hgt300.png

More amplification to our west

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Well relief all round that the GFS starts to backtrack.

This at least gives us some time to play with and a westwards correction could see much more interest develop. Not sure what to make of the UKMO however.

So one better run from the GFS, the UKMO at 144hrs hard to judge because we really need to see the next step. I'd say we're in a holding pattern until the ECM comes out later!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Heights building in Scandy!

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Heights building in Scandy!

gfsnh-0-186.png?12

Yep, it amazes me how some people didn't spot the backtrack earlier on in the run!

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire

I wasn't the one promising that deep cold was coming, when it was as plain as the nose on your face it wasn't. Low heights to our NW have been constant throughout this winter and not once have they looked like receding, a point I have often made.

I don't see how you can that.

No one foreseen the dominant Canadian vortex and it wasn't as clear by any means, all the signals pointed toward deep cold and northern blocking, and without the strat thread this place wouldn't be half the place it is, think you need to be carefull with your choice of words my friend everyone does their best.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

I don't see how you can that.

No one foreseen the dominant Canadian vortex and it wasn't as clear by any means, all the signals pointed toward deep cold and northern blocking, and without the strat thread this place wouldn't be half the place it is, think you need to be carefull with your choice of words my friend everyone does their best.

Point taken, sometimes I can be a little brutal with my assessments. Apologies all round.
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