Global Warming. What do you expect to see in your lifetime?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi!

It struck me that we have all taken part in the debates but we do not really understand what we each feel we should expect from the current global warming over our individual lifetimes.

If we asked the same twenty years ago I'm sure that we would all have mentioned the impacts on our Children or Grand Children but much has altered over that period including the sudden decrease in summer ice cover across the Arctic.

In a way it will enable us to freeze this moment in time and enable us all to keep track of how close our personal beliefs are to the reality as it unfolds?

If we can include the science that leads us to hold our beliefs then this will prove all the better for us to understand you better.

Who knows? it may help us better understand one another's posts in the various threads if we know that little bit more about one another and what colours our posts?

Edited January 29, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Devonian]

Interesting question.

In my lifetime? Well, now in mid fifties, I think I can hope to live 30+ good years so by then, guided by the best available science now, I'd expect.

Hummm.

A warmer world, as in that decade will be warmer on average than any of my lifetime. In the UK, I'd also expect it to be, on average, warmer but not by so much both because we're near a slow warming ocean and we might still be seeing odd weather due to the virtual disappearance of permanent Arctic sea ice. I'd expect to see the Greenland ice cap to be showing further signs of decay. I'd expect to see several tropical ice areas vanished. I'd expect more coral bleaching episodes. And a figure on that warming? Less than 1C globally extra over now? And effects on me and in the UK? Less easy to say imo. Warm and wet or warm and dry? I don't know.

But.

If a there is a mega volcanic eruption, warming mght be delayed. Also, if humanity increases it's productiuon of aerosols they might obscure enough sun to limit warming. And if the sun change behaviour in a very radical way that might obscure our effects on the atmosphere.

Also, imo, a changed world and a more obviously changed world than now (well, actually, perhaps people think 'now' is average so perhaps people wont notice - just laugh at older relatives who say it's much warmer now than it was in their youth).

I expect to see other 'anthro' effects on the world by then as well - but that's OT.

Edited January 29, 2013 by Devonian

[Isolated Frost]

I'm 15, so still plenty of time for its effects - touch wood.

With the current situation of natural cooling effects not being able to cool the earth, but simply slow the warming, I dread to think about the warming once solar activity and various teleconnections turn the other way... I think there will be more 'unorthodox' weather, and perhaps a slow change in climate for areas in mid-latitude regions such as North America, Europe and North Asia, with the movement and tampering of the polar jet- though I can only speculate on what is fairly recent changes.

The Arctic is in big trouble though, what its effects will be on us is yet unknown...

[snow freak]

no permanent ice cover in the arctic during the summer months and lots and lots of horrible rain.

[UV-RAY]

I expect no changes , as I believe that the majority of warming can be attributed to natural variability, the rest isn't worth worrying about.

[Methuselah]

I'm 15, so still plenty of time for its effects - touch wood.

With the current situation of natural cooling effects not being able to cool the earth, but simply slow the warming, I dread to think about the warming once solar activity and various teleconnections turn the other way... I think there will be more 'unorthodox' weather, and perhaps a slow change in climate for areas in mid-latitude regions such as North America, Europe and North Asia, with the movement and tampering of the polar jet- though I can only speculate on what is fairly recent changes.

The Arctic is in big trouble though, what its effects will be on us is yet unknown...

And I would concur with that, IF...

Edited January 29, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[UV-RAY]

And I would concur with that, IF...

I disagree, the arctic has recovered from huge ice losses thousands of years ago, why wouldn't it now. Off course all talk of global warming and it's impact is based purely on conjecture, so none of us can really say we know what will/may happen.

[Methuselah]

I disagree, the arctic has recovered from huge ice losses thousands of years ago, why wouldn't it now. Off course all talk of global warming and it's impact is based purely on conjecture, so none of us can really say we know what will/may happen.

And how do you know that that ice-loss didn't lead to unusual weather? In any case, we'll have to keep arguing, outside the Pearly Gate!

Edited January 29, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[knocker]

I expect no changes , as I believe that the majority of warming can be attributed to natural variability, the rest isn't worth worrying about.

If you believe in GW, as your comment seems to indicate, then your initial comment makes no sense, Whether the warming is due to natural variability or AGW or both is immaterial to that point. In a warmer world there are bound to be changes.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well my understanding of the recent changes is that we can expect an intensification of the effects we were told to expect many years from now over the coming 30yrs.

The Arctic will , in all probability, recover but not in the next two precessional cycles. I do believe that paleo GHG records can give us a glimpse at the impacts on global ice levels but cannot guarantee any 'time-line ' for those changes. As things stand today the 'end point' of 'normalising current GHG's with global ice levels would be 1/3 of Greenland's ice gone and the West Antarctic bereft of ice with a deep channel joining Ross Sea to Weddell sea. Whilst on it's way to this point the part of the Carbon Cycle placed into a deep slumber, as the ice occupied those regions, will be re-animated into the current global Carbon cycle.

You can see that this would raise an issue. What of this portion of the old Carbon Cycle now it has joined the current ,human fossil fuel pollution plumped, carbon cycle? Well would it not demand even more ice loss and even more 'resting' carbon cycle being brought back into life in our current one?

Even if we scrap 60% of that 'old carbon' we still end up with major implications for sea levels around the globe.

And what of Temps? With the Arctic melting we have unleashed a lot of potential warming from the absorption of more sunlight by dark land and dark oceans. The melting on Greenland has darkened the surface to the point that we see predictions of 2013 showing a logarithmic drop in albedo over summer which must , in it's turn, lead to enhanced melting?

We have lost a large section of bright ,reflective surfaces meaning that energy that used to play no part in our climate system must engage into a relationship with it.

With still a portion of the Arctic to melt there is an even larger potential 'energy boost' awaiting release into our climate system.

Behind all of this we see the 'old carbon cycle', asleep since the last period warm enough to utilise it, waking up. Any additional energy in the climate system will only serve to accelerate this 'awakening' adding more 'natural' GHG's into the climate system.

So ? How do I see things going over my lifetime? Very quickly I'm sorry to say. We have only just started to see the impacts of the masses of 'New Energy' entering the climate system and it appears to have added into the frequency of the extreme weather we have seen over the past ten years. With 2012 being another jolt to ice min levels I can only see this becoming even more of a concern over the coming decade.

We also have the 'alleged' loss of 50% of our warming (NASA 2012) due to 'global dimming'? If this proves half true then any 'cleanup' that Asia engages in will only serve to exacerbate the impacts of those 'natural' feedbacks.

I certainly do not see a 'dormant' period through the rest of my life, far from it. With PDO-ve nearly done with (IMHO) we can look forward to a resumption of the rapid warming we saw in the 80's (even without those nasty naturals coming out to play) but with the added lump of GHG's we have added since then.

However we look at it how can we expect any 'improvements'.

Edited January 29, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Thundery wintry showers]

Assuming that I manage to live until at least 2050, I expect to see the following:

• Global and UK mean temperatures at least a degree higher than they are today (though probably not more than 2C higher, unless I live until I am near 100)
• Ice-free summers in the Arctic
• Very little change to Antarctic ice extent (warming offset by greater precipitation)
• Significant trimming of the Greenland ice sheet
• Inundation of some marginal coastal settlements, particularly the ones that were reclaimed from the sea (as opposed to being built on land)

What I don't expect to see is any substantial change in the fundamentals of the British climate- we are at the downwind end of the Atlantic so I expect that winters will continue to be mild and moist (and getting erratically milder in the long run, though we may have a phase of colder winters to go through in the near term). Summers will continue to be changeable and quite cloudy, but will also show an erratic warming trend. I think 40C will probably be recorded on the UK mainland sometime during this century but only likely to be reached in my lifetime if I live until near 100.

Edited January 29, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[mike Meehan]

Since I am now into 'extra time', so I do not expect any significant changes in the rest of my lifetime - as it is, it seems that the extra heat in the system does lead to more extreme weather but I do wish that that damned jet stream would find somewhere else to for its summer holidays other than the UK - I keep telling it that Iceland is very nice

At the same time for average temperatures, rainfall and sunshine records to remain average, there must be some balancing from time to time, so I am expecting that we should get some good summers in the next few years - Roll on the Azores and the Euro Highs - If this does not happen it would indicate that we are entering a different stage.

Edited January 29, 2013 by mike Meehan

[be cause]

simple answer .. the next ice age .and the deserts blooming

[Optimus Prime]

It all depends on what China and India do really. With the way things are going the world will warm up further. Spring, Summer and Autumn will become even warmer. Winters I'm not so sure, open for debate.

All depends whether we can adapt in time. If it changes slowly we'll adapt, if it's an erratic change then I guess we'll get what we deserve.

[Methuselah]

simple answer .. the next ice age .and the deserts blooming

What's your real name then: Methuselah?

[pottyprof]

I expect to see many changes in climate throughout the world in my lifetime. It's what a dynamic system does.. change. We are much colder than we should be. Climate records show that we are in an anomalous cold spell and we are now warming up to where we should be. We know the figures are correct because they are used by many climate scientists in calculating where we are headed and are well documented.

[Gray-Wolf]

It appears many of us do indeed sing from the same hymn sheet with only our individual gusto for the song separating us?

Hows about just looking at our current errant Jet pattern? Do folk feel that is merely a natural 'fluke' or do they feel it is tied in with the changes we see esp. the ones across the Arctic?

For my part I believe it is tied in with early snow melt/large areas of open water over summer in the polar region and so would expect to see the pattern react further to increases in the energy source that drives it.

Were the jet a sound wave then more energy would mean higfher amplification and shorter wavelength. I hope that this is what we see from the jet with the trough that is blighting us retreating into the Atlantic a few hundred miles as the amplitude grows. This would maybe enable us a far sunnier summer with rains kept out to the west and the influence of the continental H.P. never far away?

Edited January 30, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[VillagePlank]

Hows about just looking at our current errant Jet pattern? Do folk feel that is merely a natural 'fluke' or do they feel it is tied in with the changes we see esp. the ones across the Arctic?

It appears the case is that no-one really knows.

At least, the only paper I could find that has systematically studied the distribution of atmospheric mass (and thus the jet streams: mass+windspeed = flow pressure) reported that further observations and analyses are needed to confidently attribute the causes of these changes to anthropogenic climate change, natural variability, or some combination of the two.

http://www.ceoe.udel...ra_GRL_2008.pdf

The paper does report that the overall trend is for the jets to shift poleward, so recent southerly tracks certainly seem off the trend between 1979-2001 although the paper does highlight (significant) regional differences.

Edited January 30, 2013 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[BornFromTheVoid]

It appears the case is that no-one really knows.

At least, the only paper I could find that has systematically studied the distribution of atmospheric mass (and thus the jet streams: mass+windspeed = flow pressure) reported that further observations and analyses are needed to confidently attribute the causes of these changes to anthropogenic climate change, natural variability, or some combination of the two.

http://www.ceoe.udel...ra_GRL_2008.pdf

The paper does report that the overall trend is for the jets to shift poleward, so recent southerly tracks certainly seem off the trend between 1979-2001 although the paper does highlight (significant) regional differences.

Posted numerous times, but if you've missed it: Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes

Here, Dr. Francis discusses the paper above, and her latest (ongoing) research which backs up her previous work. Go to about 33:30

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=xugAC7XGosM&t=33m30s

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi B.W.!

Though we continue to see an average shift north for the Jet the recent amplification of the peaks and troughs make it harder to see. From a presentation on the Jet I saw from the AGU last year it appeared that the 'peaks' were, on average, advancing north faster than the troughs but that the troughs still showed a marked northerly movement?

With the noted expansion of the tropics from the equator I guess we would expect other bounderies to shift in compensation but are we seeing warming in the mid latitudes also expanding this belt as well and so accelerating the move north?

As for the polar jet 'boundary' might the temps we now see becoming common place in the high north over summer 'fudge' this interface with the 'home grown warmth', in some northern regions, rivalling the 'imported' airs from further south?

In fact with the 24hr solar over these months could we even see a time when the north exports heat to areas further south over these summer months allowing a rapid warming of the mid latitudes?

EDIT: thanks BFTV! , I believe this is what I was refering too?

Edited January 30, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.colorado....warming-says-cu

I do believe that, in light of these findings, I might just have to revise my time-line?

With only 0.7c of warming left until we are told to expect all the northern permafrosts to destabilise i fear we are already living on borrowed time? As i've often said Asia will clean up it's act in so far as particulate pollution is concerned (and up the TSI at the surface) but if we enter a quieter period around the 'ring of Fire' now that pressure has been relieved by the recent uptick in eruptions then we will also lose this 25% modification of the TSI reaching the surface?

This means that not only do temps rise faster but that the permafrost itself is exposed to a greater frocing directly (and increase summer thaw) bringing about a further uptick in both CO2 and Methane emissions.

Howeve I look at it were " attached to another object by an incline plane, wrapped helicly around an axis .."!

Edited March 4, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[jonboy]

In my lifetime which if I live to be a hubdred has 43 years left I expect to see an increase in both volcanic and earthquake activity with some exceptional events not seen for hundreds if not thousand years. I expect artic ice to recover over the next ten years and then continue its growth until around 2050. I expect science will finally cotton on to the fact that what our sun does and our relationship to it in regard to the planetery positions/cycle fundamentally affects our climatic cycles.

Man will realsise resources are finite and won't rely on scare stories of man made global warming to do something about it.

So finally I expect there will be a decrease in global temperatures over the next 10/20 years before stabilising for a further 20 years before increasing again. I fully expect in my daughters life time which hopefully will last until around 2100 temperatures will have risen to 1 degree above today's level as part of a natural cycle.

[Gray-Wolf]

Courtesy of A-Team over on even's blog.......this is what i expect to see!

[UV-RAY]

It's cold outside now and looks like a major winter storm will be upon us from Friday onwards, this what I expect to become the norm though not from global warming of course.

[knocker]

deleted.

Edited March 22, 2013 by knocker