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Dorsetbred

Virtual Chase thread - 2013

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Very active again tonight, this time in the LA and AL areas with a massive squall line and supercells now developing in the warm sector ahead of the front.

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I have been trying to post all night but theres been posting issues, Redd Tracking just pulling a tree of the road and the fire service just turned up, theres been one fatality confirmed already.

I think Brett adair has the right location for next outbreak.

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Yep, the tail end Charlie at the end of that line you mention took a rightward move last night,off the line, and put down a TN which was nearly on one of the streams I watched. It was on the ground for a long time but the terrain was hilly and wooded and you could hear the chaser talking about and looking at it out his left window but all you could see was straight ahead. He never managed to catch up with it again, sadly. That was very close: we were looking at the developing wall cloud and he decided to move to keep ahead of the storm. It dropped a TN minutes later and we never got to see it and I went to bed late.

Oh the travails of a virtual chaser.......

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posting check before analysis for this Weds . .

Edit: Great - working again.

Potential big OK Panhandle DL magic set-up Weds 17th for W OK and Panhandle. Will review models Tues but SPC already have a Moderate for this which is rare at the 3 day outlook range.

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And perfect timing for Stu Robinson who lands at OKC Today and starts his 10 days chasing tomorrow, the next 2 days could make his season as he only has 10 days out there and after Thursday it looks quiet after that with Gulf Moisture cleared back down to Yucatan courtesy of another Strong Cold Front!

 

Wednesday could be Western Oklahoma Dryline Magic and the streams should be excellent.

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Stu normally gets a stream going so hopefully we can follow this from his bonnet - I assume he's on a private trip and not driving for a tour?<br /><br />Obviously things will change but the latest NAM puts the highest risk 21Z to 00Z Thurs through central/W OK developing EHIs of about 3 and SRH of 300+ on a line Enid to Clinton. Given minimal lid and ample juice I'd say it's a dryline dependant event and where the CF stalls with the appended DL.<br /><br />Provisional line of Enid to Clinton.<br />

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It looks like another good week in the Plains, April seems to of been a great month over the last couple of years. I just hope this strong activity carries on during the rest of the spring, would be a nightmare if it tailed off again during May. Here's hoping! :-)  

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Neil

 

Stu is starting his 10 day stint with SLT I am almost 100% certain, he said on Ukww that he would make a trip back later in May on his own if a decent Multi Day Set-Up was looking likely.

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It looks like another good week in the Plains, April seems to of been a great month over the last couple of years. I just hope this strong activity carries on during the rest of the spring, would be a nightmare if it tailed off again during May. Here's hoping! :-)  

 

Hi Ollie

 

April is usually better than May for stronger outbreaks but the time between Storm Systems and also the lack of Upslope deters tours from starting until the Middle or last third of the month, but if you hit it right April can be a belter of a month. I tend to list the best months for tornadoes as May first and April and June equal 2nd, there really is not a lot in it apart from geographical location and storms speeds etc, eg you are more than likely going to be chasing in the Panhandles of Texas and Okie, Southern Plains and the Ozarks in April and in the Dakotas and the High Plains in June.

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Paul Sherman, on 15 Apr 2013 - 13:26, said:

Neil

Stu is starting his 10 day stint with SLT I am almost 100% certain, he said on Ukww that he would make a trip back later in May on his own if a decent Multi Day Set-Up was looking likely.

Paul

According to SLT website, organised tours don't start until the 27th so if Stu is driving he's on a 'special' pre-season chase that they sometimes do on a 'nowcast' basis.

Incidentally, risk for tors up to 5% in far N AR and S IL this evening if anyone wants to further hone their skills.

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In the last couple of years, am I right in thinking the tornado season ramped up in early April. IIRC an EF5 tornado in Tuscaloosa (sp?) hit approx the second week of April 2011.

 

I was in Georgia about that time, there was serious weather around that month.

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Day 3 moderates are pretty rare (maybe a dozen or so ever issued). The last 2 were biggies, being April 14th Last year and April 27th in 2011. Of course, for every outbreak following on from a day 3 moderate risk, you have your May 13ths 2009 (where there was only one real storm to be on and that was in the jungles of Missouri (still bitter at the 800mile journey, bee sting and roadworks I endured to see a rain core wrapped completely around an apparent tornado for about 30 seconds between trees!) :)

 

Models have not been consistent with this event of the last 3 or 4 days. Should be some better agreement now we are getting into the NAMs sweet spot at <T48. Definitely going to keep an eye on it. Just wish I had more free time at the moment as this could be good practice for the chase this year! 

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Paul

According to SLT website, organised tours don't start until the 27th so if Stu is driving he's on a 'special' pre-season chase that they sometimes do on a 'nowcast' basis.

Incidentally, risk for tors up to 5% in far N AR and S IL this evening if anyone wants to further hone their skills.

 

Yep just seen that, your right they start when Stu effectively ends on 26/27th April, so dont know then wether Stu had a hunch April might be decent.

 

Looks like he will get a chase tomorrow (High Based Hailers) then Wednesday (Still not sold on the outcome even at this range) and then Thursday if he chooses the trees of the Arklatex. After that the moisture is gone and not back until he flies back

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Popping around Bowie now. Nice around there - very 'English'.

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Hi Ollie

 

April is usually better than May for stronger outbreaks but the time between Storm Systems and also the lack of Upslope deters tours from starting until the Middle or last third of the month, but if you hit it right April can be a belter of a month. I tend to list the best months for tornadoes as May first and April and June equal 2nd, there really is not a lot in it apart from geographical location and storms speeds etc, eg you are more than likely going to be chasing in the Panhandles of Texas and Okie, Southern Plains and the Ozarks in April and in the Dakotas and the High Plains in June.

Cheers Paul

 

Thanks for your comments, it's good to learn even more :-) May catch you in the High Plains then at the end of May-beginning June.   

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Another bust last night with just one large cell in the Decatuer, TX area that didn't really organise itself.<br /><br />Looking ahead to Weds and obvisouly after last week's wrist-slashing cold front undercut antics, confidence in what looks on paper to be a very decent set-up is being kept in check.<br />IF the cold front stalls as per GFS and allows initiation ahead of the straggling dryline then a big day could evolve for far SW OK as cells progress through the rich warm sector and take advantage of some impressive shear profiles.

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Crazy differences in the models for tomorrow still.. NAM is going for a repeat of last week with cold front plunging into OK. The GFS is still good for a potent outbreak. This stuff makes my head hurt blum.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Overnight and into RAP range now and unless I'm reading the models incorrectly a potentailly big day on the cards for far SW OK into WC OK. NAM has trended back towards GFS on the 00Z run.
 

RAP drops the CF SSE then stalls it across N OK, with an appended DL then nudging east towards Childress. The sweet notch between the two is the focus for rich moisture and shear numbers that develop a focus of >800 SRH in SW OK at 22Z.

>180 turn on surface up to 950mb wind vectors and a 35kn+ LLJ pushing up the I35.

Certainly needs to be watched for a potential upgrade to high risk.
 

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Definately the best Set-Up since April 14th last year, and would also expect a small area of SW & Western Oklahoma to go High Risk on the 13z or 16z Update today, only limiting factor will be cloud cover etc. All the ingrediants as Neil says above speak for themselves, with 25-30mph storm motions as well off the dryline a stunning chase, my chase bubble would be from Lawton to Altus to Chickasha to Hobart.

 

Am fully expecting Nick to bag his first Tornado today, and it could be a strong one as well if the undercutting cold front gets delayed.

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Given the SPC update and RAP I might be sitting in Lawton myself with half an eye on the I44 towards Wichita Falls.

SPS now seem pretty confident that the CF surge will hold until overnight hours so less chance of an updraft undercut scenario.

High chance of two or three monster mesos wandering NNE across the Red River into far SW OK I would think and anyone either out there or virtually chasing would do well to be fed and watered for an early start with initiation likley around 20Z onwards (9pm BST here).

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RAP update: decent looking surface cyclone developing by 21Z on NM/TX border west of AMA. This could well be decisive in fine-tuning position and I might think about shuffling along to Synder depending on the CU field development. Of note: deep SRH (0-3km) now approaching +1000 in far W main body of OK at 00Z. Wow.

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You can tell I'm really busy at work LOL.

It looks like it's adjusting a bit further west and south again. Impressive surface heat in SE OK, Red River area even by 23Z (80s). The inhibition drops out with an early initiation likely Seymour to Vernon, TX. These cells then traverse the rich warm sector heading NE at about 30kn and in theory engage the increasing LLJ as they are inside OK proper. I still like Snyder, OK but only to intercept what will proably already be a mature cell.

To latch onto the latest initiation early on I might relocate to Vernon, TX after another coffee.

Mid-level cloud sheet is decaying SW to NE according to vis sat now and all inhibition should be dissolved by 19/20Z.

Potential big event about to occur so good luck to all in the field and keep at least one full eye on the roads because the chaser convergence could be significant.

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Currently headed to Altus, along with the OU/NWS radar trucks. Haven't felt air this humid since I went to Florida.

 

And I sure hope so, Paul!

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well the only chasers who arent out today are the ones without vehicles!! Its like piccadilly circus!!

Impressive footage from Kake Bryce.

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