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Virtual Chase thread - 2013

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Major bust last night as the CF raced quickly SE and strangled the juice before anything had time to get going.

Pretty poor performance from the models IMO although SPC were quick to drop the risk once things started to develop.

A lot of chasers possibly out for the first run and dissapointed I would think - still, it happens LOL.

Edit: If you have access to Stormtrack have a look at Jeff Snyders post in the '4/9/13 NOW' thread. Fantastic explanation of the effects of the CF and the dreaded S shaped hodograph.

That was a great write up from Jeff and when he posted that last night I was in 100% agreement with him.

My record with ana frontal events over the 10 years I have been doing this is at a woefull 0 / 7 and the average time I have called a chase off is around 2-3pm on these events.

Best bet is to just go home kick a few walls and prepare for the next system rofl.gif

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That was a great write up from Jeff and when he posted that last night I was in 100% agreement with him.

My record with ana frontal events over the 10 years I have been doing this is at a woefull 0 / 7 and the average time I have called a chase off is around 2-3pm on these events.

Best bet is to just go home kick a few walls and prepare for the next system rofl.gif

Indeed Paul. And if not kicking walls then banging your head against them LOL>

It's interesting how even the Rapid Cycle model gets the timing of these cold front surges wrong more times than not and perhaps someone should be tweaking the maths to improve the situation.

I am looking forward to following the season this year - combination of better soil moisture and slighly raised Gulf ssts should make for some decent set-ups so long as the long-wave patterns behave.

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Richer moisture and a slower transfer of the CF (hence better width within the warm sector) pose a greater chance of discrete cells and attendant tor risk this evening IMO.

Max area for me would be to the NE of Little Rock, AR - fortunately the geography there opens out compared to the Wrong Turn country in the dense forests to the West. And of course south and southeast of Little Rock is not so good with that damn river in the way - is it Paul? spiteful.gif

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MD 427 out. Looking good for MS valley now this evening with a few strong tornadoes expected due to backing surface winds, lowering pressure and steep lapse rates in the warm sector..

Might be watching online this evening after all.......

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Looking online there looks like some steamy showers erupting already. HUGE temperature contrasts

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Nice looking storm, now severe warned near Ola in Arkansas. Has a classic flying eagle shape....

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Storm is now showing as having a TVS and is tornado warned.

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Looks like its turning to messy convection in the Conway area now: this was predicted as the cap broke. The storm has now lost its TVS and I fear that's it on this one.

Plenty more irons in the fire though....

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Cell south of Ola is getting the look now!

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And the one North of the Arkansas River now has a TVS on it. Brain Empfinger is also on this one.

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Yup.. really ramped up again now that it ate the cell it ran into :)

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Good way of putting it: it did kinda eat it blum.gif

Getting active over there now - I didn't expect this I must say having read the Convective Outook lunchtime. The complete opposite of yesterday.

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Looking pretty classic now.... Funnel reported on last warning update..

post-1731-0-31614900-1365628485_thumb.pn

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Yep couplet has tightened up in last 5mins - 113mph gate to gate.

5 miles SSW of Clinton.

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Getting 150kt g2g on the latest grlevel3 scan... Textbook... Tornado confirmed in Scotland (which was hit hard back in 2011 I think)

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Wow. Brian's stream is amazing right now..

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Really not convinced this met on the stream knows what he is talking about!

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Brian's stream is back up now and there is some damage at their location: there is a 'Semi' overturned off the highway as well as damaged trees and a portion of roof missing on a warehouse. Sobering....

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Brian is back. On State65 looking at damage now.

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Dominator 2 in position for to intercept the cell west of Mountain View

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Mountain View tornado should be on Dom 2 but looks rain-wrapped on the stream.

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Looks like its lined out for the evening. A quick scoot around on the radar to see if there is anything promising and, if not, then bed.

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