Virtual Chase thread - 2013

[Gorky]

Just got in and looking at the current mesoanalysis, it seems like things have trended more towards last nights NAM rather than the GFS. 26C at Altus, but only 8C up at Elk City! Hopefully it holds back and doesn't undercut the storms like last week.  

 

Edit: RAP isn't showing anything near as big a cold surge as last week, in fact keeping things pretty stationary albeit further south than forecast last night.. Could have a few rounds of storms traversing into Central OK from the SW into the early hours if that's the case

Edited April 17, 2013 by Gorky

[matty40s]

check out heart of america chasing up in Collins, very defined wall cloud and circulation

 

ben mcmillan right on it again

Edited April 17, 2013 by matty40s

[Muffelchen]

BMFCT near Frederick has a good stream tonight and the storm looks promising although nothing as yet. Lots of chaser convergence though.

[Muffelchen]

Looking real good now, rotation is increasing and it has 'the look' with a classic hook....

[Gorky]

Rapid rotation on JR Hehnly's cam. About to put down a tornado! or...... maybe not Sure I saw some wispy funnels in there

Edited April 17, 2013 by Gorky

[samadamsuk]

Hey all

 

Almost dropped a TN just then, got a feeling though that cell is getting undercut now - action may well shift to the SW on the next cell pretty soon I suspect

[samadamsuk]

Yep, Ben McMillan got swiped by RFD just then - still think this cells got limited time now though -

[bristolstormchaser]

It's really kicking off over there now, looks as if Oklahoma City and other areas of the State are in real trouble tonight. I'll have to check in the morning, can't stay up all night unfortunately.

[nsrobins]

SPC tornado reports - 0

 

Really quite amazing given the set-up. Plenty of decent looking cells with large radius rotation but for some reason nothing tightened up and even by 00Z it had started to line out a bit ahead of the front.

Will have to have a closer look at what and why as the set-up looked very decent for at least a handful of tornados.

[nsrobins]

Yep a handful of reports have filtered in now for Weds but not enough to avoid the event being considered a sound bust with most people.<br /><br />Now a wait until possibly late next week before moisture returns in adequate amounts for another possible set-up.<br /><br />Hope this isn't a portent of May and things look up for the tours preparing to travel.

[Paul Sherman]

Pretty much why most tours dont get involved with April chasing Neil, the gap between Set-Ups can be long sometimes, at least in May you can get some Upslope whilst awaiting the next system for example. These Cold Front passages need to do one soon though I agree, although GFS is trending to troughing right at the end in fantasy Island for the 6th May (But that to be taken with a pinch of salt)

 

Something has to give soon i would imagine, dont want a 1988 & 1989 Season as if you look back at the hostory books showed almost zero action across Tornado and indeed Dixie Alley.

 

Do have a feeling though that Dixie will be in play for some of May, good for Tornadoes, bad for views and photographers with mostly grungefests and a bane for structure bunnies!

[Dorsetbred]

So, the good ol' Almanac shows:

 

May 2013

1st-3rd. Pleasant, then unsettled; showers Southern Rockies.

4th-7th. Scattered thunderstorms Arkansas and Louisiana, followed by fair, cool weather. Dry, pleasant elsewhere.

8th-11th. Heavy thunderstorms New Mexico into Texas; rain Gulf Coast.

12th-15th. Sunny, then unsettled; showers over the Rockies.

16th-19th. Clearing; gusty winds New Mexico, Texas. Showers along Gulf Coast, then clearing.

20th-23rd. Gusty winds, showers sweep east across Southern Plains; stormy weather Texas, Oklahoma.

24th-27th. Sunshine.

28th-31st. Mainly cloudy Southern Rockies; some rain for Texas.

 

June 2013

1st-3rd. Fair and pleasant, then rain in Texas, Oklahoma.

4th-7th. Unsettled Rockies; squally over the Plains. Big thunderstorms for Gulf Coast. An early tropical storm is possible in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Believe it if you will

[Dorsetbred]

And for later the high plains suggest:

 

June 2013

1st-3rd. Fair, then turning unsettled over Colorado.

4th-7th. Dangerous thunderstorms for the Dakotas south to Kansas. Possible tornado weather in Kansas, Missouri and parts of Nebraska and Iowa.

8th-11th. Warm, then showers for Rockies through Nebraska, Dakotas.

12th-15th. Sunshine east into the Plains.

16th-19th. Fair, then big thunderstorms over the Rockies and the Plains States.

20th-23rd. Thunderstorms Missouri, followed by hot and dry conditions.

24th-27th. Fair, then light rain.

[nsrobins]

Agreed Paul but I hope the situation picks-up very soon.<br />The longwave pattern does indeed suggest increasing moisture return from Thurs/Fri this week so something other than a bit of structure may organise itself by then, and in the 'right' places (i.e on open plain and not too far East in the trees).

Edited April 22, 2013 by nsrobins

[nsrobins]

Modest conditional risk Friday but there's scant pickings on offer until early next week when a persistant W CONUS trough starts to advct better moisture into the mid-west and Plains.<br />Could be waiting until May 1st onwards for a decent chance, but we've seen this before and things can change.

[Arron]

GFS coming in to range now for the first tour Not seeing too much on the first day (9th) but on current modeling there will be a chase on Friday and Saturday probably somewhere along the Red River. All subject to change of course!

[nsrobins]

Another cold front due to scour through the Plains with a conditional D4 risk for Weds evening for far S OK and NC TX.
Worth a watch but on the performance so far this season may not produce too much.

[nsrobins]

Quite a decent looking cell developing now NE of Altus, OK - coincidentally in the original D4 zone but outside of the current slight risk area. No sign of rotation and not surprising given the weak and displaced shear but it's gone severe warned.

[matty40s]

awesome footage tonight of the underside of a dry storm (so far) from mrtwister zach roberts - if that doesn't spawn an almighty storm, nothing will

[nsrobins]

Quite a shimmy underway on the cell SE of Shreveport.