wales Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

[J10]

The ECM ensembles have things a bit further west than the control run for Sunday, so still some uncertainty about this, last time we were in the firing line, will we be lucky a 2nd time around, nothing wrong with being a little greedy when it comes to snow,

Hopefully this one will trend in our favour.

As for tomorrow, NAE 12Hz wasn't that positive for most, will the 18Hz be better.

Edited February 6, 2013 by Jackone

[Bobby]

Like the weather warnings http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html looks like an old wizard to me lol

The new link for the weather warnings here, that page doesn't seem to work anymore: http://www.metoffice...eather/warnings

NMM showing snow here tomorrow.

But I think more likely a higher ground event, the tops of the hills and mountains I'd wager for settling snow, not confident of seeing anything settling here but you never know. Pen y Fan and Corn Du in the Beacons have a slight looking white covering on them today from yesterday's precip, can see them from my house (well not now it's dark lol).

NAE looking more rainy tomorrow

Edited February 6, 2013 by Bobby

[Bobby]

.

Edited February 6, 2013 by Bobby

[TonyH]

The Pembrokeshire Dangler duly appeared for much of today, probably mostly hail rather than snow though:

Edited February 6, 2013 by TonyH

[J10]

The ECM ensembles have things a bit further west than the control run for Sunday, so still some uncertainty about this, last time we were in the firing line, will we be lucky a 2nd time around, nothing wrong with being a little greedy when it comes to snow,

Hopefully this one will trend in our favour.

As for tomorrow, NAE 12Hz wasn't that positive for most, will the 18Hz be better.

Not really, the dewpoints are generally too high, for much in the way of snow according to NAE, although Eastern areas the best of any chance.

As Bobby said, NMM 12Hz was a bit more positive, so interesting to see what 18Hz shows.

Edited February 6, 2013 by Jackone

[TonyH]

The Dangler as seen from Carmarthen this morning:

[benb]

The Pembrokeshire Dangler duly appeared for much of today, probably mostly hail rather than snow though:

Wintry mix of rain, sleet, snow and hail in Pembroke this morning.

Partial slushy covering of hail for about 2mins!

To my eye GFS has been pretty consistent in turning the rain quite quickly to snow on Sunday afternoon/evening across large parts of Wales, as the cold air is dragged in from the east as the circulation closes and the break away low clears away to the southeast.

What's the thoughts on the likelihood of this actually happening?

[Panayiotis]

GFS 18z looking v.good for snow these are the precipitation charts and they show rain to snow event (similar to what happened in January) but be cautious dont take these as gospel, as it changes every run but gives a rough idea at where snow may fall. I really do think that this could be as good as last January's snowfall event, time will tell however..

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....8/96/ukprec.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....8/99/ukprec.png

Notice how the heavy band of rain from central Wales moves SW.

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../102/ukprec.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../105/ukprec.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....ctypeuktopo.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../108/ukprec.png

It seems by this run that the pivoting point is around Birmingham, im expecting them to get a lot, and I mean a lot snow, before moving SW, with the moderate/heavy stuff passing over Wales.

Edited February 6, 2013 by Panayiotis

[J10]

Latest FAX Chart T+96 for Sunday,

Reminds me of the event in January, however on that occasion the front was further west, and really could do with a bit of a westward correction.

Latest FAX Chart T+120 for Monday,

Edited February 6, 2013 by Jackone

[TonyH]

Excerpt from the weather guide blog published on Sunday re tomorrow (out of date but of interest as the slight snow risk was apparent even then):

Lighter winds for Thursday, sunny intervals and wintry showers in places, with again snow for high ground. Maxima 3 to 5c. However, disturbances or troughs could be tracking south in a slack, cold northerly flow to bring wintry showers or possibly a longer spell of sleet or snow in places later on Thursday, so something to look out for surprise snowfall-wise?

From http://forum.netweat...-midlands-only/

Edited February 6, 2013 by TonyH

[welshwizard]

Hardly nasty, just giving my opinion on the comment as it's only early February and there's many weeks to play for yet in regards to snow opportunities. Just saying that posting a comment saying that winter is over with no evidence isn't helpful to any newbies reading our forum, if there were charts to write off the next month or so then i'd like to see them.

Foggybrynna did only say what he thought and as for evidence why would anyone need to give evidence to say what they think may happen? also as for charts they change like the wind and cannot rely on them for next week let alone next month etc so I think this is just how the person feels. and I thought this Welsh thread was just to chat not about charts etc. I have seen many posts on here in the past that people have posted and most of them don't have any proof to them as reguards to charts models etc. im not having a go at you Jay just think that if he had said I think its going to snow quite a bit over the next 4 weeks most would be happy but when someone says the opposite people don't like it. anyway lets be nice and when is the next snow ha ha

[Bobby]

Latest FAX Chart T+96 for Sunday,

Reminds me of the event in January, however on that occasion the front was further west, and really could do with a bit of a westward correction.

150-200 miles further West or so would be nice, possible. GFS shows a second slider snow event at around day 7

Edited February 6, 2013 by Bobby

[keithlucky]

Just to add to the confusion of Sunday Monday snow event when everyone including the met are confused

[welshwizard]

Just to add to the confusion of Sunday Monday snow event when everyone including the met are confused

I thought they where Andys charts them ones ha ha, he be gutted you beat him to it lol

[Panayiotis]

Latest FAX Chart T+96 for Sunday,

Reminds me of the event in January, however on that occasion the front was further west, and really could do with a bit of a westward correction.

Latest FAX Chart T+120 for Monday,

It seems the pivoting point is aroun Hereford on the 96hrs fax chart I do hope it move 30-40miles west then it wil be right over me!

[Marcus_surfer]

Interesting times ahead. The last event it was 6C an hour before the main event happened, so anything can happen. Sunday/Mondays event probably wont deliver here, but still, the potential is there. Lets just see what good old mother nature throws at us !

[Penfoel]

The Pembrokeshire Dangler duly appeared for much of today, probably mostly hail rather than snow though:

Yes lots of hail storms and then bright sunshine! At least I have learned what a 'Dangler' looks like, thanks TonyH .

[keithlucky]

It seems the pivoting point is aroun Hereford on the 96hrs fax chart I do hope it move 30-40miles west then it wil be right over me!

Yes quite a bit of interest concerning the rain to snow event Sunday Monday colder air get pulled in on the northern edge of heavy precipitation turning rain /sleet back to snow ,as the LP moves across Wales could give a good covering over Wales Monday as the front stalls across Wales. Met latest Cold. Saturday mainly cloudy with a little light rain and hill snow. More persistent rain and hill snow by Sunday, with snow possible to lower levels later and during Monday. Edited February 7, 2013 by keithlucky

[welshwizard]

Morning all I been reading on our welsh thread, and some say possibly snow for Wales but been on model thread and they all seem to be saying the snow will be from milands east. so whats the story on that? are we going to get rain to snow? or rain or SNOW LOL. just looked at temps on sunday and Monday and the temps look quite high for us, but it is still 4 to 5 days away so anything could happen.

[mikeocarroll]

Morning all I been reading on our welsh thread, and some say possibly snow for Wales but been on model thread and they all seem to be saying the snow will be from milands east. so whats the story on that? are we going to get rain to snow? or rain or SNOW LOL. just looked at temps on sunday and Monday and the temps look quite high for us, but it is still 4 to 5 days away so anything could happen.

The story IMO is too far out to tell. The form horse would be a rain to snow event, with as usual in these setups high ground in east Wales favoured and Pembrokeshire less favoured. It looks more marginal than January's snow, but I'd say the range of possibilities at the moment ranges from lots of rain with some sleetiness to lots of snow for everybody. One thing that I can't see is it being dry.

[snefnug]

Big wet snow now falling, probably won't stick down in valley, but glad i am not out driving in it!

[A_T]

sleeting here after a frost

[Coast]

Here's a brand new thread for you guys: