London & South East Regional Discussion - 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

[Coast]

The GFS 12hrs shows a UK wide downgrade for the snow, so at this point best just look out of the window and see whats falling!

You'd expect a mesoscale model like the NAE and especially the 4km UKMO to do better at this range than a global one but the GFS 12hrs isn't buying some big snow event,

GFS hasn't really gone with it for a while now. I'm still upbeat though as we have seen good snow this week and there are still opportunities ahead!

[Southender]

Yep as said the GFS not having any of it and limiting any snow to Suffolk Northwards. Even there it looks a bit of a "wintry mix" to be honest.

Its our old friend Mr. Warm Sector causing the problems.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Shrimper

[alexaris1985]

Latest from 12z GFS: Less cold at the 850 temps, but slightly colder temperature and more precipitation...I really do not have a clue about tomorrow..

[Essex Chelle]

Sorry but I want mild weather now two weeks of cold and no income coming in is more than enough for now remember the snow is fun but for some it affects home life too!

[nick sussex]

Yep as said the GFS not having any of it and limiting any snow to Suffolk Northwards. Even there it looks a bit of a "wintry mix" to be honest.

The differences are a damp squib on the GFS or around 10cms to the ne of London on the NAE, there could be even more than that given it develops that shallow feature.

[Paul Ashford]

Published on 24 Jan 2013

Parts of Britain will see further heavy snowfall on Friday before milder, wet and windy conditions bring a thaw. Deputy Chief Forecaster Anthony Astbury explains the change in the weather over the weekend.

Keep up to date with the latest weather forecast at www.metoffice.gov.uk

• 
  Category
  
  
  Science & Technology
  
• 
  Licence
  
  
  Standard YouTube Licence
  
  

Edited January 24, 2013 by Paul Ashford

[Southender]

12z NAE on the other hand goes for it. With the exception of coastal Sussex.

10cm possible almost anywhere. IF it is snow and accumulates.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Shrimper

[Paul Ashford]

2 things about the MetO video

1. I wish they would use a little WD40 on his chair.

2. Can he or his wife adjust his cuff's on his shirt

[snow raven]

I'm expecting nothing but rain tomorrow so I know I won't be disapointed

[nick sussex]

12z NAE on the other hand goes for it. With the exception of coastal Sussex.

Yes you can see that shallow low forming at the base of the shortwave, that could slow the front and intensify the precip. I think its just down to nowcasting seeing as theres so much uncertainty.

[Coast]

12z NAE on the other hand goes for it. With the exception of coastal Sussex.

Coastal Sussex is always the exception!!

Well we better hope the NAE are right then eh? Looks like you're still going to have to get up in the middle of the night to see it come then go....

[Southender]

Yes you can see that shallow low forming at the base of the shortwave, that could slow the front and intensify the precip. I think its just down to nowcasting seeing as theres so much uncertainty.

Yep. Think it will help to drag in some colder air from the near continent as well?

Either way, the further North and East you are the better I think.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Shrimper

[chmape]

for me if i see 1 min of heavy snow then turns to rain i would be happy, so any flake will be bonus

[Suburban Streamer]

The differences are a damp squib on the GFS or around 10cms to the ne of London on the NAE, there could be even more than that given it develops that shallow feature.

just to add something that might be useful to bear in mind - the gfs hd precip (0.2 deg) and nmm have been woefully poor during these recent snow events and the nae has without doubt stood out (particularly within t24 range). Also, out of all the precip charts that are publicly available, the only one the met office use is nae.

Not saying nae has nailed this but it certainly out performed the others in the past 10 days

Edited January 24, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[Coast]

Liam Dutton's blog yesterday:

After two weeks of freezing temperatures, heavy snow and ice, an end is finally in sight to the cold weather that has had a firm grip on the UK. From this weekend onwards, there is going to be a huge change in the weather pattern, with high pressure being eroded by vigorous areas of low pressure sweeping in off the Atlantic – bringing milder, wetter and windier weather for all.

The return to stormy weather is being fuelled by a powerful jet stream, racing across the Atlantic, high up in the atmosphere at more than 200mph. This train of relative warmth and moisture will push back the cold air to central and eastern parts of Europe, allowing temperature to rise across the UK, with a thaw setting in this weekend.

One last spell of significant snow

As often happens when a cold spell comes to an end, there will be one last spell of significant snow as the milder, moister air moves in from the west and collides with the cold air that has been with us for the past fortnight. This is expected to happen on Friday as strong winds and heavy rain move in from the west, readily giving a spell of heavy, wet snow – especially from the Midlands northwards.

At low levels, there could temporarily be another 2-10cm, with 15cm or more across the higher hills and mountains, drifting around given the strong wind. In southern and western areas, the snow is expected to quickly turn to rain as less cold air arrives, but some northern and eastern areas could have 6-9 hours of snow before this happens.

Then the thaw begins

Saturday will see a window of quieter weather with a temporary ridge of high pressure. Even though the weather computer models suggest that there could be some sunshine, I think they are being optimistic. With the ground still covered in ice and snow, warmer air moving over it will cool and condense, leading to low cloud, mist and some fog, with sunshine not guaranteed.

Saturday night will see another area of heavy rain and strong winds sweep in from the west, with each subsequent push of milder air increasing the rate at which lying snow thaws. In fact, by Tuesday, temperatures across a large swathe of the UK could reach 8-13C, thanks to a south westerly wind bringing air all the way from the Azores.

Localised flood risk

Another element to keep an eye through the weekend will be the risk of localised flooding. The ground is still relatively saturated following the heavy rain and flooding we had in December. During the next five days, not only will there be heavy rain falling, but also thawing snow. This will mean that two sources of water will be flowing into the rivers, potentially causing them to rise rapidly and give a flood risk. The Environment Agency is already warning of a low risk of flooding across south west England on Friday due to the reasons I’ve outlined above.

http://blogs.channel.../2898#more-2898

Edited January 24, 2013 by Coast

[damp patch]

Our snowman is looking rather miserable. The Doc came out and said he had a nasty cold that may well turn into a high temperature over the next couple of days. The prognosis is that he will start to deteriorate rapidly with bits falling off him, starting shortly with his lovely long orange nose ( sniff, sniff ) until he eventually becomes nothing more than a.............................

Damp Patch

Edited January 24, 2013 by damp patch

[tonbridgemole]

Pepping up in the north sea again

[Tilly]

we're down for heavy snow at 9pm tonight?!

I shall expect nothing then not be too disappointed when it doesnt happen. Would love a few more CM's though

[warrenb]

Well we are under -10 air at the moment so a little streamer could initiate.

[CWT2012]

Looks like the streamer the met office forecast for 4pm has arrived in the estuary, fair dues to them calling it spot on

Streamer later?

Spot on, just a bit late but the streamer has started

[Dexter29]

Peter Gibbs live forecast just now:

Still lots of snow forecast for this region tomorrow.

"One last chance to build a snowman" peters words, not mine!

[Gowon]

The GEM gives us an all snow event for Friday night into Saturday.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

[CWT2012]

Looks like the NW radar is down

At 16.40 looked like a band of heavy snow was entering the estuary, now all gone from the radar, clearly all that can't disappear in 10 mins

[Heretic]

Out with a bang? I hope so.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

Went from an almost snow-free lowland East London to South-East London for a funeral this afternoon. Amazed to see how much snow there still was south of the Dartford Crossing and even at Mr Stodge Senior's house in Orpington.

The aforementioned progenitor had measured his snowfall on Monday morning at five and a half inches but had retained far more then we had off a similar fall.

I suppose altitude plays a part as does the urban heat island but he also told me they had experienced very little wind while we had endured or enjoyed a stiff E'ly breeze on both Tuesday and yesterday which, I think, had caused much of the snow to disappear through evaporation.

I doubt any of it will survive the weekend either north or south of the river.