London & South East Regional Discussion - 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

[polarlow2]

I'm with Paul S. and some of the guys on this one, I think any settling snow only likely north of London and probably only .temporary.

South of the M4 corridor perhaps a short period of wet snow, then v.much rain I'm afraid.

The only caveat being what Steve M.allured to, if that SW struggles to move east, then perhaps a longer period of snow for all but with the Atlantic, pushing through eventually.

Just a quick point on the Feb.2009 Th/Str. (Would highly recommend Paul. S's analysis, top read), how anybody could suggest that was a period of mod. snow, is beyond me!

Snowfall distribution was v.unusual and out of character with normal Thames streamer events. Just from IMBY perspective, you would normally expect Bromley to have the greater depth than Croydon, it was the reverse on this occassion.

Croydon town centre around 8" ( Not Yamkins, my assessment!), Bromley 6/7".

My experience locally is that snowfall normally becomes lighter Bromley westwards.

Finally, just a clip of that event in all its glory. Remember being up and posting with the likes of Steve M. and Paul S., etc.

It definitely was heavy snow at tmes, with some intense cells over our area. At Lee S.E.12 4 cracks of thunder during the early hours!

Regards,

Tom

Just to add to that, where I lived at the time in north-west London received 15cms from that event; never quite worked out how we got so much when the streamer mainly affected south London. Most snow I've ever seen.

[Reefseeker]

And also for members in here hoping for a Streamer event I urge you to have a read of this little post I put together on the 2009 event, it is a really in depth look at how that event unfolded and you will see we are a million miles away from anything like this ad we were in this current cold spell.

http://forum.netweat...-12nd-feb-2009/

I remember that post so well; I was still reasonably new to NW, and was gobsmacked to have access to such a wealth of dedicted knowledge as you showed in that post. We got a great snow event out of it here in Surbiton, but I know to have reasonable expectations of it ever happening again.

[Dexter29]

I'm with Paul S. and some of the guys on this one, I think any settling snow only likely north of London and probably only .temporary.

South of the M4 corridor perhaps a short period of wet snow, then v.much rain I'm afraid.

The only caveat being what Steve M.allured to, if that SW struggles to move east, then perhaps a longer period of snow for all but with the Atlantic, pushing through eventually.

Just a quick point on the Feb.2009 Th/Str. (Would highly recommend Paul. S's analysis, top read), how anybody could suggest that was a period of mod. snow, is beyond me!

Snowfall distribution was v.unusual and out of character with normal Thames streamer events. Just from IMBY perspective, you would normally expect Bromley to have the greater depth than Croydon, it was the reverse on this occassion.

Croydon town centre around 8" ( Not Yamkins, my assessment!), Bromley 6/7".

My experience locally is that snowfall normally becomes lighter Bromley westwards.

Finally, just a clip of that event in all its glory. Remember being up and posting with the likes of Steve M. and Paul S., etc.

It definitely was heavy snow at tmes, with some intense cells over our area. At Lee S.E.12 4 cracks of thunder during the early hours!

Regards,

Tom

Well it's you and Paul against the BBC then. Although Meto do favour South London Northward!

Lunchtime forecast still shows heavy snow across most of region tomorrow!

I really hope the Beeb are correct and most in this region get to enjoy a couple hours snowfall at least before the mild dross!

[Coast]

Very light snow grains failing in Benny Hill at lunchtime. Mind you I had to hold my phone screen out horizontal to see them land - not going to pile up and stop me getting home!!!

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Snow for London & South East England :

Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Milton Keynes, Greater London, Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham, Kent, Medway, Surrey, Bracknell Forest, West Berkshire & Reading

valid from 0900 Fri 25 Jan to 0300 Sat 26 Jan

Further snowfall is likely to spread from the west, as another weather front moves across the UK from the Atlantic. Snow will reach parts of Scotland during Friday morning, and eastern parts of England during the late evening, likely to clear these eastern areas by the early hours of Saturday. 2-5 cm is likely in the south of the yellow warning area, with 5 cm or more further north. Strong winds will also lead to drifting, particularly over higher level roads in the north.

Issued at: 1156 on Thu 24 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=86BA37BC-57A1-A28C-04E5-62747856465E_7_SE&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1358942460

[london-snow]

BBC still showing heavy snowfall for our region.

In all fairness the bbc & meto have done very well over the past few weeks so who are we to disagree.

Let's hope their bang on the money this time.

[Coast]

Yellow Warning of Snow for London & South East England :

Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Milton Keynes, Greater London, Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham, Kent, Medway, Surrey, Bracknell Forest, West Berkshire & Reading

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358942460

North of the M4/M3 then really?

[polarlow2]

BBC still showing heavy snowfall for our region.

In all fairness the bbc & meto have done very well over the past few weeks so who are we to disagree.

Let's hope their bang on the money this time.

Absolutely, they have been top notch. They don't get enough credit for that, people are far too quick to slate them for the slightest inaccuracy. Fair play to them if they are right on this too; they (arguably) know a little more about the weather than me. Maybe.

[Dexter29]

Absolutely, they have been top notch. They don't get enough credit for that, people are far too quick to slate them for the slightest inaccuracy. Fair play to them if they are right on this too; they (arguably) know a little more about the weather than me. Maybe.

That's what I was saying earlier, the Beeb usually do really well in these set ups!

But with members on here saying the complete opposite to what the BBC TV forecasters tells, it can become very confusing!

[tomavenell]

North of the M4/M3 then really?

Kent, surrey, medway??

[jimbo36]

Absolutely, they have been top notch. They don't get enough credit for that, people are far too quick to slate them for the slightest inaccuracy. Fair play to them if they are right on this too; they (arguably) know a little more about the weather than me. Maybe.

Not saying complete opposite, just saying its marginal and more likely to be sleet/rain at the mo. Only takes a 1C difference if temps between rain and snow and heights ASL will also make a difference.

BBC covering their backsides and i don't blame them, then they can upgrade or downgrade as they see fit tomorrow morning.

Sometimes FI can be as little as T6, so lets be patient or move north

[Mac_SE]

The Met Office do get a bit of a bad press - esp. in the Model thread, but invariably seem to come out right, annoying as that can be.

[TheGate]

I am pleased that there is a Yellow Warning of Snow rather than a Warning of Yellow Snow

[alexaris1985]

The funniest thing is to see the warning and at the same time the hourly forecast for London shows rain for 09:00pm and sleet for late with temperatures at 3 degrees. I still think it is a nowcast event..

[Paul Sherman]

Must admit and we all know the Meto have information to hand that none of us would ever see, so they must be seeing something which goes against all the Model Data Sets we have at our disposal, so maybe looking good then, have not once dissed the BBC Or Meto during this cold spell, snow events are some of the hardest to forecast in the world especially when you are an island surrounded by a warm ocean current.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[WillinGlossop]

I am pleased that there is a Yellow Warning of Snow rather than a Warning of Yellow Snow

If the yellow warning for snow comes to fruition you should then also be warned of inevitable yellow snow

[Coast]

Kent, surrey, medway??

North Kent, North Surrey and over the other side of the Medway maybe, but I think that would be the extreme Southern extent of anything and I'm going with an hour or so of snow, quickly turning to sleet then cold rain. Most of this is also overnight into Saturday and maybe gone by the morning - so you may never even see it all wrapped up in your beddy-byes!!! :lol:

[stainesbloke]

Hopefully will just rain here, snow to rain events are yucky and a waste of good snow

[Shunter]

Light radar activivty increasing in Thames Estuary. We had a short burst of "pellets" here 10 minutes ago. Temp 1.5c DP -1c

Looks like intermittent radar failure is hiding what appears to a line of Snow showers heading down the Eastern Coastline directly to about Cliff then out West to around Dartford. Light snow now falling and temps lowered to 1.3C

Edited January 24, 2013 by Shunter

[Southender]

Light radar activivty increasing in Thames Estuary. We had a short burst of "pellets" here 10 minutes ago. Temp 1.5c DP -1c

Yes we have had a few pellets and small flakes falling here in Southend for a while now.

Temp 1.7c

Dew -4.2c

Wind NE @4mph

[nick sussex]

The chopping and changing continues with the NAE.

Better news if you're in the se especially areas to the ne of London as theres a chance of a shallow feature developing, this could delay the less cold air for a few hours and develop some heavier precip.

I doubt we've seen the last of the changes but there could be some interesting developments if this feature develops earlier a little further west.

[Snowangel-MK]

Snowy weather followed by heavy rain is expected across the UK in the next few days, with the risk of flooding. John Hammond explains....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21183498

[Kentspur]

Light radar activivty increasing in Thames Estuary. We had a short burst of "pellets" here 10 minutes ago. Temp 1.5c DP -1c

Looks like intermittent radar failure is hiding what appears to a line of Snow showers heading down the Eastern Coastline directly to about Cliff then out West to around Dartford. Light snow now falling and temps lowered to 1.3C

Me like;-) leaving Dartford for gravesend now and spent some younger years in Cliffe at me mum. I noticed its a lot darker this last half hour and both places I'm in today are within that zone can it pep up a bit please

[Coast]

I can't help thinking if this turns out to be the transitory, snow-to-rain-in-an-hour, North of our region, middle of the night affair it has the possibility to be, there will be a lot of disappointed bunnies in here on Saturday morning. I'm not being downbeat or despondent, so please keep ramping away - just don't indulge in a whole load of moping and moaning on Saturday if you wake up to find it's raining again and the snow has all gone please

For the record, I always want everyone to get covered in the white stuff, but I'm not sure currently tomorrow brings that to our region for long enough or widely enough.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Coast

[nick sussex]

The GFS 12hrs shows a UK wide downgrade for the snow, so at this point best just look out of the window and see whats falling!

You'd expect a mesoscale model like the NAE and especially the 4km UKMO to do better at this range than a global one but the GFS 12hrs isn't buying some big snow event.

A bit of a headache for the UKMO because they've bigged up this possible snow especially for areas further north so we'll just have to see tomorrow what transpires.

Edited January 24, 2013 by nick sussex