Spring Weather Chat

[Guest pjl20101]

I think your post Crewe cold is very pessimistic and disagree with it. Have looked at the 700 milibar chart myself and it indicates a by and large fine march and April. May however is looking more unsettled. For Summer it did not give a trough, but it did give above average heights towards Greenland in July. I would say so far Summer Blizzard is spot on so far and weather online have got it right too. Be interesting to hear the interpretation from Gavin P as he seems to give an honest account of what is going on as well.

[Guest pjl20101]

Here is the latest set up from the CFS: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

Not too bad really.

[Weather-history]

I think we're statistically overdue a wintry March.....can't remember the last one. I suspect by March 1st a lotof people will be sick of the sight of snow, however I don't really think March will provide a respite this year. Decidely cold I reckon

March 2006, and the latter stages of March 2008, remember that Easter?

[Harve]

I can think of more notable, recent snow events in April than I can in March...

[Milhouse]

I believe the first half of March 2005 had a fair bit of wintriness did it not. But it turned much milder from mid month with 20c recorded. It ended up above average by quite a bit.

Edited January 27, 2013 by Milhouse

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, the second half of March 2005 was one of the warmest on record (it may have been the warmest, I can't remember for certain). A tropical maritime SW'ly brought warm grey drizzly weather around midmonth but then the Euro high pushed northwards and gave many of us a spell of warm sunshine with temperatures widely in the high teens and nudging the low 20s in some places. The last week was very grey near the east coast though with an emphasis on high night-time minima due to winds off the North Sea.

March 2006 had potential to be the coldest March for many years, as the CET stood at just above the 3C mark for the 1st-23rd (compared with 4.5C for March 1996) but a warm and wet last week wiped out a large chunk of the negative temperature anomaly.

I remember Easter 2008 quite well- a weekend characterised mostly by sunshine and snow showers and some quite impressive shafts from Cb cells, with a frontal system on one of the nights which brought rain in the west and snow in the east (due to a pool of warmer air that the GFS picked up on and UKMO/ECMWF did not, resulting in BBC forecasts for snow even in the west). I recall that north-east Scotland and Norfolk saw the majority of any sustained snow cover, while elsewhere accumulations during showers and thawing in subsequent sunshine was the norm.

I have fond memories of the period 6th-15th April 2008 in Norwich. There was falling sleet/snow on three days, thunder on three days, and hail on four, and one day in particular had a pretty substantial thunderstorm for the time of year with pea-sized hail and about an inch of hail cover, while most days also had a fair amount of sun in between the showers.

Edited January 27, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Barry12]

Weather online March forecast

*March*

The first month of spring begins with high pressure looking likely to be in control and a fine and dry, mild start, a southerly drift covering much of the UK. This scenario is expected to continue although temperatures falling back with overnight frost with some rain affecting western Britain as low pressure approaches from the west.

The Atlantic will be attempting to push into western Britain, with its associated rain, buts this eastward progress may be erratic and undetermined as high pressure to the east may remain as a block?

A southerly flow may be strengthening as this battle takes place, although by mid-March the Atlantic will have taken control, rain pushing through on a westerly with strong winds and rather unsettled conditions for all areas.

The latter stages of March sees, higher pressure to the east or southeast over the near Continent, low pressure mainly affecting the northwest of the UK, where it'll be unsettled, southern and eastern Britain drier at times with any rain patchy and weak, mainly mild everywhere.

As the month draws to a close, high pressure takes control, conditions settle and spring may have arrived with temperatures lifting across the UK.

[summer blizzard]

I'd note that stratospheric temperatures at 10hpa are already plunging so the prospect of a warmer than average March in my opinion is high.

[Summer Sun]

Well we really need a drier than average spring now its desperately needed after all the rain last year, the signs are good for high pressure to build as we enter spring

[Barry12]

If we can't have a cold March, then a sunny mild March is fine

[Summer Sun]

Just had a look at the CFS 9 monthly chart and Easter Sunday looks colder than Christmas day!

[Guest pjl20101]

I would put minimum trust in that chart Gavin as charts like that you should take with a pinch of salt.

[Aaron]

Just had a look at the CFS 9 monthly chart and Easter Sunday looks colder than Christmas day!

There was a day in June colder than Christmas 2011.

[Summer Sun]

I would put minimum trust in that chart Gavin as charts like that you should take with a pinch of salt.

Don't worry I'm not taking it seriously it was just a bit of fun lol

[Barry12]

I would put minimum trust in that chart Gavin as charts like that you should take with a pinch of salt.

More like a bucket

[Bumpkin]

Warm and dry please followed by a warm dry Summer

[Summer Sun]

This is from Decembers update I know but it covers February to April and it shows temperatures above normal

And Rain is shown to be well below normal

The UK is in the top right if your new to these charts struggle to find it

Edited January 29, 2013 by Gavin.

[Weather-history]

A spring for my liking

Brisk wintry showers in March as with 1995

Sunny April

Some May warmth

[Barry12]

May is warmer than June, July and August these days

[Milhouse]

Nothing beats a warm spell in late April/early May just as the trees are bursting into leaf, the hedgerows are blossoming and everything is lush and vibrant. Not long to go now.

[Interitus]

The largest diurnal range I can find during March 2012, from limited research, is 23.1 degrees at Altnaharra.

23.2° at Tain Range on 27/03

[Bottesford]

If we could just get all the wet & dull weather out the way now till late March then it turn generally warm, dry & most of all sunny from April - September I'd be a very happy man!

[Eugene]

I'm hoping for a cold March and April dominated by drying dry arctic northerly/northwesterly winds followed by a HP dominated May but not too warm for walking in the countryside, cold weather doesn't feel that cold with sunshine by April anyway, polar maritime WNW'lys can feel very pleasant indeed like today with lots of nice sunshine.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The spring Bank Holiday weekends of Easter and May Day can throw up all sorts of weather.

One quirk with the "switch-arounds" from summery to wintry weather in April/May 1995 and May 1997 is that the transitional period coincided exactly with Bank Holiday weekends and a mix of sun and wintry showers followed shortly afterwards. Easter Monday 1995 and May Day 1997 coincided with the generally dull wet day in the transition, while May Day 1995 saw northerlies plunge south. Note, though, that all three holiday weekends started off with at least one warm dry sunny day for most of the country.

On a similar note, Spring 1982 was generally dry, sunny and warm but there were two northerly outbreaks which coincided exactly with the Easter and May Day weekends, which brought scattered wintry showers and night frosts- I can imagine that frustrating a fair number of people!

Edited January 31, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[summer blizzard]

Geronimo.........

Warmer than average March? Odds may be increasing!