North West England Regional Discussion 23rd January 2013, 12z onwards

[Snow free zone]

Looking at tomorrow, I feel rain/sleet to lower levels in the West is to be expected.

Looking at Liams post above I have to agree with his comments. Another frost free morning today, and its cloudy again. This cold spell for this part of the NW has been almost a complete non event, very little in the way of frost, and your average Preston snowfall really - struggling to settle and a maximum of around 1-2cm.

For others this has been more notable, I'd include in that the areas to the West of here Southport and some areas of the Fylde coast, all have had more snowfall then here. I had expected areas further East and South to see the better of the spell, but to the West and immediate South .....

Atlantic returns from Sunday and I am sure the precipitation imbalance of the past few weeks will be corrected.

[karyo]

The huge difference between GFS and NAE continues in their 6z output. NAE continues to look promising for snow for the whole region but the GFS has rain with a bit of snow on the Pennines.

Even if the NAE gets it right, it is going to be a snow to rain event but obviously the best option out of the two and it will be nice to see heavy snow falling for a change.

Karyo

[Brass_Monkeys]

I wonder if the Met Office will update the current warnings for Friday's event later today. Last warning was issued at midday yesterday.

[chris78]

Looking at tomorrow, I feel rain/sleet to lower levels in the West is to be expected.

Looking at Liams post above I have to agree with his comments. Another frost free morning today, and its cloudy again. This cold spell for this part of the NW has been almost a complete non event, very little in the way of frost, and your average Preston snowfall really - struggling to settle and a maximum of around 1-2cm.

For others this has been more notable, I'd include in that the areas to the West of here Southport and some areas of the Fylde coast, all have had more snowfall then here. I had expected areas further East and South to see the better of the spell, but to the West and immediate South .....

Atlantic returns from Sunday and I am sure the precipitation imbalance of the past few weeks will be corrected.

totally agree.......doesnt it just highlight how exceptional 2010 was here.....we could well get repeats of 2010 this February, or next December or in 3 or 10 year time....but I genuinely wouldn't be surprised if I never see anything of likes again here in my lifetime.....

Edited January 24, 2013 by chris78

[trickydicky]

Looking at tomorrow, I feel rain/sleet to lower levels in the West is to be expected.

Looking at Liams post above I have to agree with his comments. Another frost free morning today, and its cloudy again. This cold spell for this part of the NW has been almost a complete non event, very little in the way of frost, and your average Preston snowfall really - struggling to settle and a maximum of around 1-2cm.

For others this has been more notable, I'd include in that the areas to the West of here Southport and some areas of the Fylde coast, all have had more snowfall then here. I had expected areas further East and South to see the better of the spell, but to the West and immediate South .....

Atlantic returns from Sunday and I am sure the precipitation imbalance of the past few weeks will be corrected.

It has been a bizzare 'cold' spell in some ways. As you say, it hasn't actually been that cold, if we had had a 'UK' high sat right over us with clear skies and wall to wall sunshine it would have been much colder, if less newsworthy. Also, snow distribution has been pretty unusual. I live in Longridge, and work in Blackpool, so my drive to work is a cross section of the middle of the county, apart from the hills to the east. Usually this involves snow lying in Longridge, gradually thinning towards Preston, becoming broken and patchy at Preston, turning to a dusting by Kirkham and greenery by the time you reach Blackpool. But this time there is full cover at Longridge, fading quite quickly to a partially melted dusting about halfway to the M6, almost nothing at Preston and towards Kirkham and then literally from the bridge at the Kirkham junction onwards a full cover again. It would have been interesting to have been stood on the bridge on Monday!

[karyo]

I wonder if the Met Office will update the current warnings for Friday's event later today. Last warning was issued at midday yesterday.

They will and if they go with the NAE there will be some amber warnings issued (possibly for areas such as the Pennines and Yorkshire). If they go with the GFS, they will reduce the areas under yellow warning.

[jam2010]

I refuse to get excited I remember a few maraginal events that was supposed to bring a lot of snow but never happened. Fingers crossed though

[simon29]

Can anyone on here give me a heads up for tomorrow night, im settin off to work 9ish working in burnley, is it likely to be snowing here.Thanks

[Snow free zone]

GFS 6z almost totally removed the snow risk for tomorrow for those to the West. Looks also to be a bit of a wind fest going into next week as well with noteable lp's on monday and tuesday. 1 run and all that.

@ Chris - 2009/10 & 2010/11 were memorable for me because of the length of time the snow stayed on the ground here. Usually we get snow and its gone in 48 hrs, but for 2 successive winters we had snow on the ground for over 10 consecutive days. You may be right we may never see that happening again.

[frosty ground]

GFS 6z almost totally removed the snow risk for tomorrow for those to the West. Looks also to be a bit of a wind fest going into next week as well with noteable lp's on monday and tuesday. 1 run and all that.

@ Chris - 2009/10 & 2010/11 were memorable for me because of the length of time the snow stayed on the ground here. Usually we get snow and its gone in 48 hrs, but for 2 successive winters we had snow on the ground for over 10 consecutive days. You may be right we may never see that happening again.

NAE show up to 20 CM for some areas in NW England thou (In 6 Hours)More so for eastern Areas!

[Snow free zone]

NAE show up to 20 CM for some areas in NW England thou (In 6 Hours)More so for eastern Areas!

Yes, its a strange one, even at such short range 24hrs that models again cannot come to some sort of agreement.

[Liam J]

6z NMM is also showing that rain will be falling from the sky for western parts of the region, not good! Anyway some significant wind events likely through next week, that'll suit me fine

Edited January 24, 2013 by Liam J

[cheshire cat]

Looking like a real dumping from about 6am Friday, as ever radar in the morning, but I guess if it is snowing when you wake up, it will keep snowing till around midnight before it turns to rain, locally snow to sleet to rain, timings down to air masses and elevation as always

Edited January 24, 2013 by cheshire cat

[karyo]

6z NMM is also showing that rain will be falling from the sky for western parts of the region, not good! Anyway some significant wind events likely through next week, that'll suit me fine

This doesn't look good apart from high ground!

Looking like a real dumping from about 6am Friday, as ever radar in the morning, but I guess if it is snowing when you wake up, it will keep snowing till around midnight before it turns to rain, locally snow to sleet to rain, timings down to air masses and elevation as always

What are you on about?

The band of precipitation is not likely to reach us before midday at the earliest and then who gets snow and who gets rain is up in the air.

[Liam J]

This doesn't look good apart from high ground!

Think I'll let go of any hopes I had for tomorrow, if it snows then bonus but if it doesn't then I haven't set myself up for yet another disappointment! lol

[Snow free zone]

I know the GFS overcooks lp systems, but thet low that develops in the Atlantic fri night/sat morning is just bonkers. My eyes aren't good enough to tell what the central pressure is on it ! Looks a bit OTT to me.

[kaluja]

I really hope it does snow (and stick) even for a little bit here tomorrow just because its my daughters birthday and she loves snow ... however i won't be holding my breath lol

[Liam J]

Met updated warnings - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

Still including all coastal areas within the warning area.

[snowdrifter]

Meto covering themselves I reckon. I genuinely hope that areas that have missed out get at least a few hours of mental snow before rain takes over. I've had a bit, more than I thought I would, pn Monday, so I hope SFZ and others get to experience a snowstorm.

[snowdrifter]

Met updated warnings - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

Still including all coastal areas within the warning area.

...but when you type in 'blackpool' it has light snow to rain. Inconsistent.

[Backtrack]

That 06Z NAE ties in almost EXACTLY with the Met Office warning. The NAE is the model to follow right now, I'd watch it closely. Another factor to monitor is how low the temperatures can sink tonight. The lower the better.

[SparkleS]

Whats he talking about on bbc news 24, mets now been updated to amber warnings, not on my pc they havent lol

[Liam J]

I guess it's a wait and see what falls from the sky event, whatever happens a rapid thaw will take place as the winds swing SW'ly and the uppers go into + values.

Amber warnings now issued for more eastern parts - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

Edited January 24, 2013 by Liam J

[frosty ground]

That 06Z NAE ties in almost EXACTLY with the Met Office warning. The NAE is the model to follow right now, I'd watch it closely. Another factor to monitor is how low the temperatures can sink tonight. The lower the better.

Last week NAE was garbage and now it's your fav!

[chris78]

I just cant get worked up for a snow event if its going to be followed by thaw....I have decided Im not a snow fan..im a lying snow fan......if its not going to stick...id prefer hail much more dramatic...(although not in summer it plays havoc with the veg garden)