London & South East Regional Discussion 22nd January 2013 22:00hrs>

[Sno' problem]

Yeah I thought that band from Eastbourne to Dieppe would intensify and move up into west Surrey, Berkshire, Hampshire, Banstead area giving 9 hrs of heavy snow whereas infact it has barely moved

It has just been feeding the ppn into Sussex all evening, just slowing now due to the low moving West (oddly)

[Jason M]

Mod thread someone mentions possible snowstorm for the se?

Can't see anything like happening, but you never know :-)

Yep, me as it happens.

A period of snow is shown for the weekend but it would turn back to rain after a few hours. There has been a slight trend however for the trough to dig further south on the last couple of runs. If this trend is repeated in the morning we could be looking at a significant snow event in the SE. It's not there yet before anyone gets excited, but with the models its important to look at the trends from run to run rather than just the one chart. This additional resistance from the block is sneaking up on us quietly.

As an example of how a poor looking chart can deliver big time if someone can find it its worth posting up the chart from last feb which at face value looked rubbish.

Jason

[chmape]

Temp 0.1

Dewpoint -2.4

here it's:

temp: 2.7

dew: 0.9

[Reefseeker]

Just watching BBC News, the Mendips look amazing!

I hail from the Mendips; looks like my parents are getting a pasting. The big snow events of the late 70s/early 80s were amazing when I was growing up there - huge snowdrifts against the hedgerows. Ah, memories, I wonder if my son will take the same kind of memories from cold spells like this in Surbiton?!

[john pike]

144 from all the charts at present

ukmo

gfs 18z

ecm

safe to say more runs needed

[Sussex Jules]

here it's:

temp: 2.7

dew: 0.9

Amazing the difference over such a short distance

[Tom Quintavalle]

Nice one Tom, very impressed with your endeavour!

(Very surprised to have beaten you?? How did that happen?)

Not sure how that happened either, central London? Are you the manager of the restaurant on top of the Post Office tower?

Looked at your location, obviously played a weakened team and paid the price!

Cheers,

Tom

[steveinsussex]

Yep, me as it happens.

A period of snow is shown for the weekend but it would turn back to rain after a few hours. There has been a slight trend however for the trough to dig further south on the last couple of runs. If this trend is repeated in the morning we could be looking at a significant snow event in the SE. It's not there yet before anyone gets excited, but with the models its important to look at the trends from run to run rather than just the one chart. This additional resistance from the block is sneaking up on us quietly.

As an example of how a poor looking chart can deliver big time if someone can find it its worth posting up the chart from last feb which at face value looked rubbish.

Jason

All snow or snow to rain if trough does dig south??

[chmape]

Amazing the difference over such a short distance

i know it shows how snow cover and proximity to the sea can have a big difference on the temps!

[Sno' problem]

If only that Dieppe feeder was able to move to say Dunkirk or Ostend... would be great for the Thames

[leemondo]

Last one from me, still snowing here just pepped up a bit too

[Tom Quintavalle]

Yeah that's the area where I was basing my figures of earlier upon, it's not progressed at this stage how I anticipated

CWT2012,

See you've already posted a video of you and some mates in that heavy snow tonight, is that Hampstead Heath?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=8kx8wGRNZX4

All joking aside, you've taken a lot of stick tonight and taken it well

Cheers,

Tom

[Sno' problem]

Not sure how that happened either, central London? Are you the manager of the restaurant on top of the Post Office tower?

Looked at your location, obviously played a weakened team and paid the price!

Cheers,

Tom

Hahaha, yup, amazed that I even came close, let alone managing to beat you, there is still some lying snow here as well, which is mighty odd considering we usually lose it within hours of it stopping.

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Snow for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Hampshire, Kent, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham & Slough

Valid from: 0300 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Valid to: 1000 on Wed 23 Jan 2013

Outbreaks of sleet or snow will affect parts of southwest England and South Wales during Tuesday, extending to other parts of southern England and the south Midlands later. Where rain or sleet is currently falling, this is expected to turn increasingly to snow during this afternoon and evening, even at low levels. Some 2-5 cm of snow is expected quite widely and in places 10 cm or more, with the highest risk of 10 cm or more occurring on high ground within the amber warning area.

The public should be aware of possible disruption to transport.

This update expands the area to include more of southern England, southeast Wales and the SW Midlands.

Issued at: 2219 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=0A4FF48A-44C0-9196-06B0-5CF31101914B_7_SE&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=7&lon=-0.50&lat=51.35&fcTime=1358769660

[ChartViewer]

CWT2012,

See you've already posted a video of you and some mates in that heavy snow tonight, is that Hampstead Heath?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=8kx8wGRNZX4

All joking aside, you've taken a lot of stick tonight and taken it well

Cheers,

Tom

Got to agree with that Tom...well done CWT2012....Good banter and enjoy the forum.

[Southender]

Lets hope the pub run is on to something. Very interesting developments shown. And mild may not be as nailed on as first thought...

[manutdmatt1986]

Yep, me as it happens.

A period of snow is shown for the weekend but it would turn back to rain after a few hours. There has been a slight trend however for the trough to dig further south on the last couple of runs. If this trend is repeated in the morning we could be looking at a significant snow event in the SE. It's not there yet before anyone gets excited, but with the models its important to look at the trends from run to run rather than just the one chart. This additional resistance from the block is sneaking up on us quietly.

As an example of how a poor looking chart can deliver big time if someone can find it its worth posting up the chart from last feb which at face value looked rubbish.

Jason

Wouldn't bet against it. The models, in particular the GFS, tend to overdo Atlantic incursions and are often too progressive with any breakdown of blocking and cold conditions. Wouldn't surprise me if we did see a decent spell of snow though I do think the Atlantic will push through and bring milder conditions, at least for a while. My main concern for the chances of a breakdown being snowy is that the uppers won't be particularly cold, only around -4 to -6 I think.

[tomavenell]

Still snowing lightly, 6 cm added tonight which was a nice surprise.

I am quite surprised at the lack of notice from BBC, met office for my region. It was quite obvious from about 10am that this was going to give quite a dumping during rush hour

[Heretic]

Very disappointing tonight. Looks like a lot of areas are getting hammered, but we got absolutely nothing!

And don't know what the hell is going on with the radar. It showed intense ppn over me numerous times but nothing of the sort was actually falling...

[Sno' problem]

Yellow Warning of Snow for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Hampshire, Kent, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham & Slough

Valid from: 0300 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Valid to: 1000 on Wed 23 Jan 2013

Outbreaks of sleet or snow will affect parts of southwest England and South Wales during Tuesday, extending to other parts of southern England and the south Midlands later. Where rain or sleet is currently falling, this is expected to turn increasingly to snow during this afternoon and evening, even at low levels. Some 2-5 cm of snow is expected quite widely and in places 10 cm or more, with the highest risk of 10 cm or more occurring on high ground within the amber warning area.

The public should be aware of possible disruption to transport.

This update expands the area to include more of southern England, southeast Wales and the SW Midlands.

Issued at: 2219 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358769660

Too little too late? Or is there something that I am missing?

Or is the Dieppe Flow going to provide something unexpected?

Edited January 22, 2013 by Sno' problem

[Great Plum]

Yellow Warning of Snow for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Hampshire, Kent, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham & Slough

Valid from: 0300 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Valid to: 1000 on Wed 23 Jan 2013

Outbreaks of sleet or snow will affect parts of southwest England and South Wales during Tuesday, extending to other parts of southern England and the south Midlands later. Where rain or sleet is currently falling, this is expected to turn increasingly to snow during this afternoon and evening, even at low levels. Some 2-5 cm of snow is expected quite widely and in places 10 cm or more, with the highest risk of 10 cm or more occurring on high ground within the amber warning area.

The public should be aware of possible disruption to transport.

This update expands the area to include more of southern England, southeast Wales and the SW Midlands.

Issued at: 2219 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=0A4FF48A-44C0-9196-06B0-5CF31101914B_7_SE&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=7&lon=-0.50&lat=51.35&fcTime=1358769660

Hang on, I thought the Met Office shut at 5... Have the cleaners updated the warning? They will be in such trouble in the morning!

[therecoil]

Still snowing heavy , can't quite believe it has been snowing for nearly 3 hours !!!! Again , is this really England?

[2810lollypop]

Still snowing heavily here in hastings but still not settling ? can i ask ,has anyone been affected by the gas that come over from france today ? I have but im unsure if its that or a gas leak in my house .Ive been waiting for an engineer since 8am & my house is freezing ! brrrr ,im sure its warmer outside ! sorry to be a bit off topic

[Jason M]

All snow or snow to rain if trough does dig south??

Ah, that's the million dollar question. Either really.

As it stands I wouldn't be at all surprised if we sneak an all snow event with a bit of drizzle and a thaw to finish.

It wouldn't take much more though for the font to stall out across the east of the region much like last feb. don't get your hopes up too much as the morning runs may just remove the chance completely though.

Jason

[Tom Jarvis]

Yellow Warning of Snow for London & South East England :

Bracknell Forest, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Hampshire, Kent, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham & Slough

Valid from: 0300 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Valid to: 1000 on Wed 23 Jan 2013

Outbreaks of sleet or snow will affect parts of southwest England and South Wales during Tuesday, extending to other parts of southern England and the south Midlands later. Where rain or sleet is currently falling, this is expected to turn increasingly to snow during this afternoon and evening, even at low levels. Some 2-5 cm of snow is expected quite widely and in places 10 cm or more, with the highest risk of 10 cm or more occurring on high ground within the amber warning area.

The public should be aware of possible disruption to transport.

This update expands the area to include more of southern England, southeast Wales and the SW Midlands.

Issued at: 2219 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

http://www.metoffice...Time=1358769660

lol it looks like it was issued late lol

my mum has just got home and reports that the chaos on the a27 was caused by a snowbomb where she drove a space of 100m and found the snow had gone from 1cm to 5 inches in that ditance!!!!!!!!!!!