Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.

[Shunter]

Teleconnections continue to improve from day 10...both AO & NAO starting to trend more negative

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[Glacier Point]

GFS has moved towards the ECM solution today, placing vortex energy mostly in the Canadian sector at day 10.

ECM ensemble for today still has a lot of energy in the canadian sector, persistent heights to our SW and gentle but persistent troughing to our north:

So no change yet. Atlantic dominated, mild at times in the south and occasional NW incursions bring chances of snow to high ground in the north. Bog standard winter - nothing remarkable.

This is the pure model interpretation of course. Teleconnections suggesting otherwise, but we are yet to see anything like an MJO 7 or 8 pattern emerging in the output, and with spiking AM the models are not yet really picking up a very big increase in wave amplitude if it is coming.

GEFS day 10:

... very amplified and phase 7/8 and liable to deliver T850 anomalies of around 3-4C below normal.

The real insight here is this. Longer range modelling failed to pick this amplification. There is more to come as angular momentum is sky high at the moment and we're likely to see the GWO flick through phases 5-6-7-8 and back again. That builds further amplification into the system, so temperatures 3-4C below normal as a starting point.

[phil nw.]

Time for a new thread methinks peeps.

I`l give it a few minutes for anyone finishing off then maybe hold off for the new one.

[phil nw.]

OK folks locking this one now-new thread over here-

http://forum.netweat...n-12z-28012013/

Edited January 28, 2013 by phil nw.