Scotland Regional Discussion 21st January 2103, 12z onwards

[lorenzo]

GFS delivers another spectacular Atlantic Dartboard Low.. 917mb !!!!!!

Mind bending model output..

[cscrim]

needless to say the attempt to cover pavements failed and we are back to where we started. been a very frustrating day and not convinced its going to change.

[BleakMidwinter]

Er, remember that pulse of ppn that LS said was crossing East Lothian and would probably hit Embra in 15-20 minutes (posted at 15.30)?

I think it's maybe stopped off en route for some chips. It's very nearly stopped snowing here for the first time since 8am... eight hours of snowing, and um, er, well... ah well, such is life!

[November13]

What an odd day. Never seen anything like it. I have known snow to stick in May when it's 5 or 6c!

[LomondSnowstorm]

LZO / LSS: do you chaps have a view on surface temp, dew points, uppers for tonight? are we good for snow at nightfall???

Cheers, Pete

2m temperature profile certainly loooks better, which was the main issue today:

Uppers are a wee bit borderline but considering the main problem was the lack of lying rather than falling snow we could probably get away with it:

NMM will be better on exactl details of precipitation though.

Fast snow at the moment, fine flakes drifting around and adding a bit to the accumulations, maybe a cm or so now on some surfaces.

[BleakMidwinter]

We've just got Teflon Snaw, i seems...

[misha]

GFS delivers another spectacular Atlantic Dartboard Low.. 917mb !!!!!!

Mind bending model output..

Yep, 5 days away Lorenzo and 917mb? What! FI is ridiculous at the mo!! If the models can't decide who are we to decide lol!

[jon_d1983]

BFT i can synpathise, we've had nothing here in aberdeen all day, a bit of sleet for all of 2 mind and then zilch!!

[Guest]

Just had a wee 10 second power cut!

Not all fun and games here....

crazy up here. Just been to the gate, whiteout in each direction up the road. Can't get pics up from mobile. Honestly...a little bit nervous at all of this. In a good way but it is a lesson to be prepared.

[Buriedundersnow]

UKMO aint as bad only 935mb lol

[edo]

Sorry - can't get excited about this! Seen too many charts lately seemingly going to give a good dump and nothing happens. This just raises hopes for what amounts to wet snaw!

there speaks a broken Mondy I may join you if i get home and discover I have lost any accumulation and it has not actually been lying at any point

[LomondSnowstorm]

Er, remember that pulse of ppn that LS said was crossing East Lothian and would probably hit Embra in 15-20 minutes (posted at 15.30)?

I think it's maybe stopped off en route for some chips. It's very nearly stopped snowing here for the first time since 8am... eight hours of snowing, and um, er, well... ah well, such is life!

Yeah, sorry, I think it headed across to Fife, must've got confused about where I was

[Ravelin]

GFS delivers another spectacular Atlantic Dartboard Low.. 917mb !!!!!!

Mind bending model output..

That's just an attempt by the GFS to take what lying snow we have, scour it from the surface, and dump it all in the North Sea! It would give us a "memorable event" though.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Ravelin

[GrangemouthBairn]

Rain and sleet all day so far. Exactly what the met office symbols were so can't be too disappointed. Was still hoping for better though.

[tempestwatch]

Yeah, sorry, I think it headed across to Fife, must've got confused about where I was

I think it has, nearly whiteout here a few times in the last 20 mins, temp seems to have dropped a fair bit too

[BurntFishTrousers]

GFS delivers another spectacular Atlantic Dartboard Low.. 917mb !!!!!!

Mind bending model output..

What a beast and only 3mb higher than the record 914mb for a North Atlantic system. Note, only super-typhoons and major hurricanes go lower than this, so if it deepens further, we will be watching a world record unfolding in front of our eyes for a non-tropical low pressure gradient. Stuff the snaw, this is far more interesting

Edited January 21, 2013 by BurntFishTrousers

[edo]

UKMO aint as bad only 935mb lol

can it undercut lol

[ploughboy]

thanks LSS - so temp drop back to 0c may be good enough .. should make for an interesting evening

[Buriedundersnow]

can it undercut lol

dont know but looks like it would be heading right for us.

first snow that wont settle then a winter hurricane wonder what will be next.

[Zenarcher]

Western Isles snaw field gave way last night a light dusting of snow on the hills today happy with that.

[lorenzo]

LS or LORENZO what is the chances of us not seeing a brekdown of the cold as the 12z gfs seems to have taken a nice westward shift in the atlantic so far

if in terms of colder upper air you are looking at 850 temps then at 120 hrs the 0 degree line crosses the country bringing only 18 hrs of upper temps above 0, thereafter returning to negative values.

FI I think would be around the 96 hr mark, that monster low spawned on this run you would normally expect to see career Eastward, however it remains in situe doing a spot of mid-Atlantic fishing. At 102 hrs you have another shortwave wanting to complete the undercutting scenario again.

Beyond me to predict what energy that LP system will eject and where, could be a track towards Iceland, could be a negative shortwave heading into the continent. Case of watching each run just now.

Ian F tweeted UKMO not leaning on raw output but going with GM model, look forward to seeing what the ECM makes of it.

[BurntFishTrousers]

I make it 916mb

[Snowlover2]

Yeah, sorry, I think it headed across to Fife, must've got confused about where I was

I think it did. Brilliant winters evening. Thick snow,darkening sky's which are full,snow blowing and wind howling. Perfect.

[Landylou]

Hi folks, been lurking in the background for a few days watching all the snow chat unfold! Cant believe the lack of snow in some places! I live in Findo Gask, 10 miles outside Perth and we've had snow all day! Drifting has started and some of them are well over 6" with an average depth of around 4"........am I right in thinking the snow is on for the night?!

[Buriedundersnow]

if in terms of colder upper air you are looking at 850 temps then at 120 hrs the 0 degree line crosses the country bringing only 18 hrs of upper temps above 0, thereafter returning to negative values.

FI I think would be around the 96 hr mark, that monster low spawned on this run you would normally expect to see career Eastward, however it remains in situe doing a spot of mid-Atlantic fishing. At 102 hrs you have another shortwave wanting to complete the undercutting scenario again.

Beyond me to predict what energy that LP system will eject and where, could be a track towards Iceland, could be a negative shortwave heading into the continent. Case of watching each run just now.

Ian F tweeted UKMO not leaning on raw output but going with GM model, look forward to seeing what the ECM makes of it.

cheers lorenzo