London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards

[Brocken Spectre]

Think pretty much it's game over for any more snow in this area of Kent.

Granted some cold days to come +1s or +2s, some very cold nights, but I'd stick money on the West bringing mild at the weekend.

It's good whilst it's lasting.

So here's to February and lets hope for a reload

[therecoil]

Interesting development down here on the coast, we had a half hearted attempt at a thaw earlier, but the bits that were beginning to turn to slush have re frozen already, just been out for a walk with the dogs....it feels colder then it did between 12-2 pm.

bodes well for this incoming precipitation !

[fulham snow]

0.6C on Epsom Downs and dropping fast now the sun has gone down.

Could be a -7C tonight if it stays clear.

What a weekend here in Epsom build 10 snowmen,snow better on Saturday as went hard rather than powder stuff.

Any more snow tonight,me not think so butwe have been spoilt.

[snowblues]

Snow melt is holding back well here,paths still got a fresh look,until you go in to town and its slushfest.Must be a cm or 2 or grit,well ott.Lets hope the block to the east holds firm and the models start delaying the atlantic,as they did this morning not bya huge margin but little steps can make a big diffrence in 4 or 5 days.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013012112/gfs-2-36.png?12

a shift east on gfs...

S

[Kent Blizzard]

Nice try, but yes if you look at the pressure charts it gave a clue as to where it would go. Shame. Tomorrow? I'll have a look into it.

Indeed but many fell for it along with me including yourself earlier today, oh well we can't complain after yesterday lol maybe we was just hoping too much.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Kent Blizzard

[Sno' problem]

Latest GFS has some ppn making headway into Southern coastal region on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning:

Just need it to move further North in the next run!

Edited January 21, 2013 by Sno' problem

[therecoil]

Good to see the rain fizilling out to the west, the thaw while noticeable hasn't been dramatic and temperatures are dropping, so rain rain go away please! No thaw up Devils Dyke still lovely up there

[Snow Run]

Brief but lovely snow shower in Henfield, West Sussex

Looks like one of the bits thrown off by 'the blob' as it barrelled along the Channel - we've just has a light shower up in Turners Hill and it looks quite dark to the south of here.

[Coast]

a shift east on gfs...

Yep, 12z GFS wants to stick something to the far East of our region now - but there is still that development along the South coast that is rain up until a few miles inland:

Still confused TBH

Edited January 21, 2013 by Coast

[snowbob]

Latest GFS has some ppn making headway into Southern coastal region on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning:

that is what jp was forecasting last night

Good call if that verifies

[Sno' problem]

that is what jp was forecasting last night

Good call if that verifies

Yup!

[totalhysteria]

Very dark out to sea at the moment

(Brighton)

[Heretic]

Please please please please snow tomorrow night. I'm being greedy but I don't care.

I want more!

[Kent Blizzard]

The 2hr loop still looks like it wasnt to suck that blob towards Kent (East) ??

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/?type=radar-forecast

[london-snow]

Afternoon all hope you have had a nice day playing in the snow.

Cloudy to start the day but after lunch the cloud cleared and was left with bright sunshine. A slight thaw but nothing major as temps now will start to drop bigtime ice will become a problem for tomorrows rush hour.

Chance of a band of snow away from the coastal areas for most of the south east tomorrow although it looks like anywhere north of central london will struggle to receive anything but we will know by tomorrow.

[therecoil]

Very light snow in Brighton at the moment

[Marie]

Yes can confirm very light snow here

[Downpour]

Yep, 12z GFS wants to stick something to the far East of our region now - but there is still that development along the South coast that is rain up until a few miles inland:

Still confused TBH

What I have never grasped about the GFS ppn charts is why they always forecast rain on the boundary between ppn and dryness, even when the temps will not be marginal there. For example that map shows a narrow band of rain to the west of the Cairngorms. Highly unlikely.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Downpour

[Southender]

GFS going for a poss snowy breakdown Fri night.

[Alpine glow]

a 2 minute graupel shower in North Brighton. Tiny hard ice balls!

[Coast]

What I have never grasped about the GFS pin charts is why they always forecast rain on the boundary between ppn and dryness, even when the temps will not be marginal there. For example that map shows a narrow band of rain to the west of the Cairngorms. Highly unlikely.

They shouldn't be taken too literally as they are rough indicators only at best. But even as an indication, they are at odds with almost everything else out there - very little confidence in anything other than my own eyes to the skies at the moment!

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...W72-7.GIF?21-16

A slight upgrade in the short term UKMO -10's across us again-

S

Edited January 21, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Alpine glow]

And the graupel comes again!

And after reading some about it - I would hate to be in a graupel avalanche!

Edited January 21, 2013 by Alpine glow

[Sno' problem]

The radar echoes are looking to be building over Souther Coastal counties in our region, a band of light ppn heading NE/ENE in a line from just west of Worthing to Rochester at the moment...worth keeping an eye.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Sno' problem