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Somerset Squall

Tropical Cyclone Oswald

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Tropical Cyclone Oswald has formed in the Gulf Of Carpentaria, Australia, this morning, 90 miles east-northeast of Mornington Island. Oswald has sustained winds of 35kts currently. The cyclone has a huge amount of convection associated with it, which is lashing the west coast of the Cape York Peninsula with very heavy rainfall. Sky News Weather referred to the low that is now Oswald in their world weather forecast yesterday as having the potential to dump a whopping 500mm of rain to this region of Australia in the coming week (that's 20 inches). The cyclone doesn't have long over water, but half the reason why the convection over Oswald is so deep is because the water in the Gulf Of Carpentaria (GOC) is about 31C, which is helped by the fact that there hasn't been a cyclone in the GOC since TC Paul in 2010. Along with the good upper level outflow and low shear, this should allow Oswald to strengthen over the next 12 hours before landfall.

What then happens to Oswald is unclear. The steering influence is pretty weak, and to complicate matters further, Oswald could briefly interact with a weaker low over the Coral Sea. Both JTWC and BOM are very uncertain in their forecasts, but are broadly agreeing on a southerly track after landfall, keeping Oswald over land and not bringing the cyclone out into the Coral Sea. JTWC expect Oswald to persist over land for the next 5 days as a 35kt+ cyclone for the next 5 days however, as it draws moisture from the Coral Sea and the GOC- which backs up the 500mm rainfall prediction by Sky News Weather.

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Biggest rainfall total from this system is 632mm in 48hrs at Tully, NE coastal Queensland. ( Period ending this morning, but still it rains .

January average is 532mm.

Biggest 24hr rainfall total on record at this town is 606mm in December 1927.

It is noted as being Australia's wettest town, in terms of annual average, and daily and monthly rainfall records in an Australian context.

They have even erected a big boot in town to celebrate their status.

250px-GGumboot.jpg

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Been there lived there worked there been in that boot and oh yes it's a wet wee place

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Been there lived there worked there been in that boot and oh yes it's a wet wee place

Bananas by any chance?

I'm glad I moved down from North Queensland when I did. The wet season was a long time coming this time round, but now it's really in full force.

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The remnant low of Oswald has been given a MEDIUM chance of becoming a TC again by JTWC. The remnant low is holding up well, inland over the Cape York Peninsula, and could come very close to the coast over the next day or so. BOM mention also the possibility of Ex-Oswald emerging into the Coral Sea. It'll be interesting to see if Ex-Oswald becomes a tropical cyclone again.

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Bananas by any chance?

I'm glad I moved down from North Queensland when I did. The wet season was a long time coming this time round, but now it's really in full force.

I was actually thinking you'd stay a bit, do a bit of cyclone chasing good.gif

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NASA sees massive rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Oswald

Tropical Storm Oswald's heavy rains have caused flooding in Queensland, Australia and NASA's TRMM satellite measured almost two feet of rain fell in certain areas.

Tropical cyclone Oswald's sustained winds have never been greater than 35 knots (~40.2 mph) but the storm's extreme rainfall has resulted in widespread flooding in Australia over northern Queensland. Many roads have been reported flooded resulting in some communities being cut off.

NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is a satellite that can measure rainfall from space. TRMM-based satellite precipitation estimates are created at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. within about seven hours of observation time. Hal Pierce of NASA Goddard created a rainfall image from a Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA) for the period from January 15 to 22, 2013. The analysis showed that Oswald and its remnants had dropped over 600 mm (~23.6 inches) of rain in areas of the Cape York Peninsula near the Gulf of Carpentaria.

According to a report on news.com.au, travelers were requested to cancel plans to go to the Cape York Peninsula, Queensland. Many rivers have flooded and dirt roads are mired in mud over a distance of 560 kilometers (348 miles) that stretch from Laura to Bamaga. Rainfall totals over the Cape York Peninsula to Cardwell were as high as 200mm (7.8 inches) to 300 mm (11.8 inches), which fell south of the town of Innisfail.

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For Oswald's storm history, visit NASA's Hurricane page: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2013/h2013_Oswald.html

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-01/nsfc-nsm012313.php

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    • By Vorticity0123
      A new tropical low has developed in the Coral sea after a lull in overall activity for a week or so. The low is forecast to strengthen and move southeastward to impact Queensland in a few days. The Bureau of Meteorology only forecasts the system to become a category 1 tropical cyclone:
       

       
      While the GFS forecasts the system to become a sub-990 mb low at the time of landfall:
       

       
      The light blue colors on the forecast map indicate a pressure of around 990 hPa.
       
      The JTWC has issued a tropical cyclone formation alert for the time being.
       
      EDIT: The designation 0XU means that the tropical cyclone has not yet been given a number.
       
      Sources:
      http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
      http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/14012800/4.html
      http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
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