South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 21/01/13 6z Onwards

[gottolovethisweather]

Further to my last post, there isn't much on the radars right now so I guess the MetO were referring to the stuff in the English Channel which the French appear to have knicked. Nevertheless, this goes to show the difficulties of attempting snowfall predictions.

I remain confident that something may well pop up again during the next few days at short-term notice.

Now where was I? Ah yes.....................................................

[offerman]

Just seen your location, You may get more than us here in somerset today, further south and east today has higher chance, so maybe 1-2 cm for you there.

[Mark Neal.]

Snowing lightly here :-)

[Jeckers]

Just a dusting overnight near Truro but several cm on the way to work, all the way from Penryn and on the Lizard peninsula.

[AWD]

From Ian;

W COUNTRY Tues has potential to bring 5-10cm over uncertain area *broadly* encompassing E Devon; Som; N Dorset; Bristol/B&NES; Glos; W Wilts

W COUNTRY Still uncertainty re potential snow threat Tuesday. Some AM falls likely for some, but later PM/eve could prove more significant..

W COUNTRY CONT'D At this juncture & given varied forecast model outcomes, we cater for 30% chance of over 10cm in those areas. Updates later

Edited January 21, 2013 by AWD

[chris55]

Tuesdays potential snow is a difficult one, some in our region look at risk of something significant, but where???? A copmlex stalling/pivoting front coming up against some cold air. Likely to have a mild sector wrapped within.

So we have many uncertainties,

Exact track

How far east it makes it into the region

Where the snow line is

And where the milder sectors are

All in all a complex forecast.

Ian has just tweeted this,

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Still uncertainty re potential snow threat Tuesday. Some AM falls likely for some, but later PM/eve could prove more significant..

That says to me the "pivot" will be important as the cold potentially wraps back around the feature as it pivots.

To be honest we have had loads of snow here, but you still can't help wanting more, especially when the potential is there for something significant. Frustrating stuff,lol.

Edited January 21, 2013 by chris55

[Wilxy]

Just a dusting overnight near Truro but several cm on the way to work, all the way from Penryn and on the Lizard peninsula.

Glad you got some of the white stuff now send it to twister girl, then we can end this on a high

[snowmadchrisuk]

6z GFS also keeps it South coast only ... We need a Northwards correction from the GFS and UKMO this afternoon , or it could be a damp squid for most ..........

[chris55]

From Ian

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY CONT'D At this juncture & given varied forecast model outcomes, we cater for 30% chance of over 10cm in those areas. Updates later

[theprophecyman]

6z GFS also keeps it South coast only ... We need a Northwards correction from the GFS and UKMO this afternoon , or it could be a damp squid for most ..........

Agree looking at 6z GFS charts, but reading the tweets from Ian F (posted earlier) there does seem to be "potential"??

Guessing METO (Ian F) has access to other data that shows the low pushing further northwards??

Edited January 21, 2013 by theprophecyman

[AWD]

Take the raw 06z output with caution as it has been heavily modified for the TV forecasts.

[Mark Neal.]

From Ian;

W COUNTRY Tues has potential to bring 5-10cm over uncertain area *broadly* encompassing E Devon; Som; N Dorset; Bristol/B&NES; Glos; W Wilts

W COUNTRY Still uncertainty re potential snow threat Tuesday. Some AM falls likely for some, but later PM/eve could prove more significant..

W COUNTRY CONT'D At this juncture & given varied forecast model outcomes, we cater for 30% chance of over 10cm in those areas. Updates later

I'm guessing Oxfordshire would be just a bit to far east for this potential, who knows, yesterday evening NAE had it stalling over us..

[Nights King]

One day away and we have no clue as to roughly who will see or not see this snow, so frustrating.

May have to just wait for the 12z and hope it firms up on a good fall for as many of us as possible.

[AWD]

One day away and we have no clue as to roughly who will see or not see this snow, so frustrating.

May have to just wait for the 12z and hope it firms up on a good fall for as many of us as possible.

And If it doesn't, we nowcast! :p

[chris55]

Agree looking at 6z GFS charts, but reading the tweets from Ian F (posted earlier) there does seem to be "potential"??

Guessing METO (Ian F) has access to other data that shows the low pushing further northwards??

I get the feeling this feature is for the high res models only. UKV NAE etc. Perhaps the UKMO/GFS lower res means they are not picking up the risk.

Anyone know if we can get access to the UKV model?

Edited January 21, 2013 by chris55

[Beast of Plympton]

Further to my last post, there isn't much on the radars right now so I guess the MetO were referring to the stuff in the English Channel which the French appear to have knicked. Nevertheless, this goes to show the difficulties of attempting snowfall predictions.

I remain confident that something may well pop up again during the next few days at short-term notice.

Now where was I? Ah yes.....................................................

Happy birthday sir!!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Agree looking at 6z GFS charts, but reading the tweets from Ian F (posted earlier) there does seem to be "potential"??

Guessing METO (Ian F) has access to other data that shows the low pushing further northwards??

Of course there's potential , Just worrying the GFS and the UKMO had the 10cm + showing for last few days and now the day before there starting to drop it .... Slightly more marginal though will mean more moisture , so hopefully we will have more precipitation to play with .. Either way it will be down to radar watching ... Also wouldn't rule out Bristol channel showers today ,the air looks very unstable ....

[TwisterGirl81]

Tuesdays potential snow is a difficult one, some in our region look at risk of something significant, but where???? A copmlex stalling/pivoting front coming up against some cold air. Likely to have a mild sector wrapped within.

So we have many uncertainties,

Exact track

How far east it makes it into the region

Where the snow line is

And where the milder sectors are

All in all a complex forecast.

Ian has just tweeted this,

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Still uncertainty re potential snow threat Tuesday. Some AM falls likely for some, but later PM/eve could prove more significant..

That says to me the "pivot" will be important as the cold potentially wraps back around the feature as it pivots.

To be honest we have had loads of snow here, but you still can't help wanting more, especially when the potential is there for something significant. Frustrating stuff,lol.

I get you but we've had nothing here apart from sleet and the same goes for Cornwall, our time hopefully will come on Tuesday/Wednesday.

[Coast]

Owww. looking a little more interesting now on Wednesday morning:

But only for a short while:

[cerneman]

Further to my last post, there isn't much on the radars right now so I guess the MetO were referring to the stuff in the English Channel which the French appear to have knicked. Nevertheless, this goes to show the difficulties of attempting snowfall predictions.

I remain confident that something may well pop up again during the next few days at short-term notice.

Now where was I? Ah yes.....................................................

Happy Birthday,,,,,,,,,,,,,Mid life Crisis Beckons,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Have nice day

[SLEETY]

latest high res NAE computer model has increased the snow risk for southern coastal counties this morning

The high res WRF-NMM model 00 run was looking similar too!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Where's Tuesday's event coming from, is it up from France or does it simply develop overhead?

Any ideas folks.

Edited January 21, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Wilxy]

Further to my last post, there isn't much on the radars right now so I guess the MetO were referring to the stuff in the English Channel which the French appear to have knicked. Nevertheless, this goes to show the difficulties of attempting snowfall predictions.

I remain confident that something may well pop up again during the next few days at short-term notice.

Now where was I? Ah yes.....................................................

Happy birthday have a great day

[A.J]

hmm...well I'm ging to sit on the fence and wait I think....I 've had doubts & then hopes about any snowfall for tomorrow for the past 24 hours, as GFS & NMM (hi-res) haven't really wanted to know, yet NAE and info from our own Ian F say otherwise.....I'm just surprised the model outputs are showing such different outcomes at T24-36.....In fact for tuesday from an IMBY perspective the 06z GFS looks worse....mind you it is the 06z run!.....guess it just goes to show how complex and much uncertainty there is at the moment

Happy Birthday Tony, you're catching me up!

[gottolovethisweather]

Happy Birthday,,,,,,,,,,,,,Mid life Crisis Beckons,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Have nice day

I'm already there.

Edited January 21, 2013 by gottolovethisweather