Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 20/01/13 ----->

[Scarlet_Snow]

If we do get some snow tonight/tomorrow I hope it's not as marginal as last time for us in Llanelli...4 hours of rain beforehand ruined the snow accumulation depths here

[dbaloo]

No sign of snow tomorrow AM or PM in the BBC/M.O forecasts for me, yet TV forecasts and models are showing prolonged heavy snow!

I was just about to post the same thing.very strange indeed

[Marcus_surfer]

Temp up to 1c here now, have not been able to get a severe frost due to cloud cover which is disappointing , got to -2c last night but temp up and down due to cloud cover. A thaw should set in properly today.

[Scarlet_Snow]

Anything falling from the sky in west wales?

Yes, it has just started snowing here! Light though

[mikeocarroll]

I was just about to post the same thing.very strange indeed

Auto-generated website "forecasts" should be ignored. The TV forecasts are compiled by metereologists and are far more reliable (though not of course infallible).

[Marcus_surfer]

Yes, it has just started snowing here! Light though

Good to hear

[willitbsunny]

Thawing quickly here now

[Scarlet_Snow]

Good to hear

There are some surprisingly big flakes mixed in every now and then! Is that band on the radar to our NW moving SE'ly?

[Ginkrots]

-1 here, some thaw around houses and on pavements but snow still remains 2-3 inches deep on non man-made surfaces.

[Marcus_surfer]

There are some surprisingly big flakes mixed in every now and then! Is that band on the radar to our NW moving SE'ly?

Looks like its losing intensity as its hitting land

[soupsurfer7]

BBC National forecast has snow over Cardiff for most of the day tomorrow, but at the same time stressing 'it may not be exactly where it's shown here'. So still lots of uncertainty just a day before.

[TonyH]

Just to say the standard and content of the Wales thread has been excellent this Winter, most informative, objective and knowledgeable contributors! Marvellous

[TonyH]

A slight NW drift around the low over the north Midlands may help further snow flurries move into west and SW Wales this afternoon. This system has though introduced less cold air as Mike observes, 1.7c dp 0c here currently. As ohters have said the lack of cold nights is speeding up the thaw with the ground not properly frozen.

Edited January 21, 2013 by TonyH

[valley blue_501]

what's expert opinion on this board for the snow in s.e.Wales tomorrow??? anyone willing to stick their neck out?.....im guessing its either nothing or will be worse than fridays snow.

[joo]

Someone has just forwarded this email from someone who is a Met Office Advisor (civil contingencies)

Subject: TRIM: Weather Update

Morning All

Here’s the latest re the current cold spell and the snow situation

Today

The light snow falling across parts of North Wales will gradually move away to the north and die out over the next few hours. A few snow showers are possible in other areas, mainly western areas of Wales (the radar is showing some affecting parts of Pembrokeshire at present). Although these may become heavy at times and give a slight covering of snow in places, I’m not expecting these to cause any major issues.

Tonight

Now the more difficult aspect of the forecast.

There’s scope for further snow showers overnight, particularly in western areas of Wales, and these are likely to extend across southern parts of Wales later in the night. These showers are likely to give accumulations of 2 or 3cm in places later in the night and with some mix of rain/sleet in the showers in coastal areas there’s also likely to be some very icy surfaces too.

There’s also the possibility of a more persistent area of snow forming across southern areas of Wales tomorrow morning and persisting into the afternoon with the potential for more significant disruption. However, confidence regarding this aspect is very low. At present the intention is that a Yellow warning (low risk of medium impacts) will be placed on the Met Office website later this morning. This may be updated to AMBER this afternoon if the confidence increases. Hence, I’ll keep you informed through the day.

Apologies for the vagueness re tomorrow but please call if you wish to discuss.

Edited January 21, 2013 by joo

[Staffordshire]

Can see another big snowfall for you guys that got the red warning friday, enjoy

[gareth moo]

They will be waiting for Ensembles and 12z NAE to check that the 06z wasn't anomalous.

I can't see NAE changing significantly this afternoon but who knows? The pros don't seem to right now!

[snowy36]

Thanks Joo. perhaps they waiting too see what the 12z brings to see if it says the same as 0z+6z.

[Ginkrots]

Issued at: 1212 on Mon 21 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0300 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Outbreaks of sleet or snow may affect parts of southwest England and south Wales during Tuesday. The main risk appears to be in the western portion of the warning area but snow may extend east as far as Wiltshire and Hampshire late on Tuesday. Some 2-5 cm of snow is likely in places with a risk of as much as 5-10 cm, more particularly high ground.

The public should be aware of possible disruption to transport.

As this is very likely to be updated please monitor the website for possible updates.

[snowy36]

They will be waiting for Ensembles and 12z NAE to check that the 06z wasn't anomalous.

I can't see NAE changing significantly this afternoon but who knows? The pros don't seem to right now!

Gareth it can change bigtime, take last friday for instance when the oz thursday came out it was bringing about 20mm to our area then the 6z was suppose to bring 35mm to our area( that was red warning time) and then the later 12z brought it back to around 20mm and that was what we really had.

So i think the 12z will be very intresting because if it still says around 30mm then the game is on. I will be shocked if its that much going what ukmo oz was showing and the dog dinner Gfs 6z.

Edited January 21, 2013 by snowy36

[snowy36]

Issued at: 1212 on Mon 21 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0300 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2359 on Tue 22 Jan 2013

Outbreaks of sleet or snow may affect parts of southwest England and south Wales during Tuesday. The main risk appears to be in the western portion of the warning area but snow may extend east as far as Wiltshire and Hampshire late on Tuesday. Some 2-5 cm of snow is likely in places with a risk of as much as 5-10 cm, more particularly high ground.

The public should be aware of possible disruption to transport.

As this is very likely to be updated please monitor the website for possible updates.

Very intresting, i think if its bad on the 12z then i can see them upgrading to amber by 4ish

[Ginkrots]

I'm not convinced we'll get as much snow as Friday. It doesn't seem that intense of bbc forecasts but maybe they just haven't gone into much detail yet.

[mikeocarroll]

Temp is well above freezing here today, got up to 4.1c half an hour ago although has fallen back slightly since. A fairly significant thaw continuing.

[snowy36]

I'm not convinced we'll get as much snow as Friday. It doesn't seem that intense of bbc forecasts but maybe they just haven't gone into much detail yet.

I think this one a tough one because last friday's one was clear for a few days that it was going to snow but this one it's rather a sneaky one because it's only going to afect afew and its get the detail right. Going to be a intresting day for me as ive had afew days of and im in early tomm morning.

I say bring it on. U never know it could be the last we see of snow this winter.

[andymusic]

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales

Yellow Warning of Snow for Wales : Powys, Neath Port Talbot, Swansea, Bridgend, Rhonnda Cynon Taff, Vale of Glamorgan, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil, Blaenau Gwent, Monmouthshire, Newport & Torfaen valid from 0300 Tue 22 Jan to 2359 Tue 22 Jan