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beerandkebab

Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 20/01/13 ----->

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that precip just coming into cornwall is looking like it is heavy stuff and it does look like it could hit some part of wales in a few hrs, im not sure if it will switch at last min but it does look very interesting. could produce some nice snow if it did be nice and come to us ha ha

Would of been awesome if it did actually make it to Wales, it not expected to tho sad.png

Any experts want to comment?

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been snowing nearly all day, another few cms throughout the day. Has turned heavier in the past few hours and is piling up nicely

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On the edge of the current 'reverse cheshire streamer!'rofl.gif (sadly)

Tegeingl / Fflint way seems to be getting hit by a fair bit or snow

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Would of been awesome if it did actually make it to Wales, it not expected to tho sad.png

Any experts want to comment?

I dont think it will reach us, and even if it does it will only be light stuff.

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Been snowing for quite a while here, 5cms in the last couple of hours.

Pete

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Ok - summary of where we are going to be going next - seems we will get one or two more snow type events till about friday this week - after that - it looks as if it's gonna get MILDER - so much so that rain and wind could well be the order of the day - so still stormy but only the highest peaks will keep it to snow! - This may well continue until towards mid - FEB - when according to the meto we are then gonna go back into the FREEZER with some more pretty severe snowy spells - and quite a few of them - probably through to early March!

There ya go - could well stick to the plan - or it could be a bit more complicated that that - but I'd say that looks about right to me!

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Nice for Carol morning TV to use the words Significant snowfall for South Wales tonight into tomorrow.

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just saw forecast and they showed snow coming in for wales over night but didn't look like it will cover all ov wales,looks like west will do ok from what I saw, and then they confirmed what Andy just said,mild and windy by weekend. never mind it was fun and it may come back? I heard a guy talking on radio a few days ago and he said it would get mild but only for about 5 days then cold again.

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just saw forecast and they showed snow coming in for wales over night but didn't look like it will cover all ov wales,looks like west will do ok from what I saw, and then they confirmed what Andy just said,mild and windy by weekend. never mind it was fun and it may come back? I heard a guy talking on radio a few days ago and he said it would get mild but only for about 5 days then cold again. I just saw bbc weather and that showed snow for east wales tommor but itv shwed a diff area over west for tommor, who is correct? ha ha

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Hmmm latest NMM doesn't bring anything other than a few light flurries to Wales over the next couple of days, the front tonight breaks up well out to sea and never makes landfall. Hard to predict.

Looking further ahead milder air looks to move in from Friday, pretty good cross-model agreement now on a return to milder conditions. The odd run recently has shown a slightly better angle leading to some breakdown snow, but most have the high pressure sinking and milder south-westerlies flooding in ahead of any precipitation. Might be a cold night or two first though.

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Latest NAE has South Wales buried tomorrow. 24 hours out only!

13012212_2106.gif

Edit: It also predicts an all day stall. Amazing output but no triangulation from other models really.

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Latest NAE has South Wales buried tomorrow. 24 hours out only!

13012212_2106.gif

That really is a huge divergence with the NMM, which shows this at the same time period.

post-13083-0-02507800-1358759978_thumb.j

Which will be right? One of them is going to go up in my estimation...

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That really is a huge divergence with the NMM, which shows this at the same time period.

post-13083-0-02507800-1358759978_thumb.j

Which will be right? One of them is going to go up in my estimation...

Yes absolutely. I just edited my post. No triangulation whatsoever from the other models!

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The NAE has performed extremely well recently, What matters now is what the Mogreps is showing.

I suspect if anything like the NAE we will see a second rare Red Warning for Wales for tomorrow.

Its worrying that NMM has nothing, but like i said NAE was pretty much on the mark over the last few days.

The NAE could easily give 25cm over the same areas that it had red warning for last week if it verified.

We will know what MOGREPS shows by mid day, as if its anything like NAE amber and red warnings will be issued.

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Still coming down here and heavily too. Building up nicely , up to 12cms deep.

Pete

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Massive divergence at such a short range. Going to be very difficult to make a call on it. METO probably need to air on the side of caution and issue a warning only for it to go belly up and look silly.

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Massive divergence at such a short range. Going to be very difficult to make a call on it. METO probably need to air on the side of caution and issue a warning only for it to go belly up and look silly.

They will wait for the latest model runs, in fairness they have been very accurate over the last few days, this all depends on the Mogreps if it shows same as NAE then warnings will be issued, it would hazzard a guess that something similar to NAE is being shown and its now about getting the exact location that it will stall. I suspect Yellow Warnings accross Most of Powys, Amber Bridgend to Monmouth and red around Brecon and heads of valleys if similar to NAE. We will know before 1pm

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Welsh and national weather forecasts both going for prolonged snowfall over south east & mid Wales. From 05:00 to 14:00 tomorrow.

Could be problematic again

post-11270-0-44132600-1358765137_thumb.j

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Meanwhile temp has reached 2.8c here already today, a steady thaw underway. Wasn't really expecting that from forecasts, see if it rises further or falls back.

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Any one seen the precipitation for tomm, its between 25 and 35 for us southerner's that's more than when they gave that red warning on friday. Wow if NAE is right then Choas tomm because it happens later than last friday and it would be choas on the road's.

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That image is pretty much exactly what the NAE shows for that time, with sleet on far south coastal areas then becoming snow during the morning. Will be interesting to see the Meto update between 11am and 12 today. This place will be mad again if it verifies

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They will wait for the latest model runs, in fairness they have been very accurate over the last few days, this all depends on the Mogreps if it shows same as NAE then warnings will be issued, it would hazzard a guess that something similar to NAE is being shown and its now about getting the exact location that it will stall. I suspect Yellow Warnings accross Most of Powys, Amber Bridgend to Monmouth and red around Brecon and heads of valleys if similar to NAE. We will know before 1pm

No criticism of them intended. They've been excellent. More a comment on sods law than anything. Their performance has been excellent but what are the odds on them being hauled over the coals based on a safely issued amber that never happens.

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No sign of snow tomorrow AM or PM in the BBC/M.O forecasts for me, yet TV forecasts and models are showing prolonged heavy snow! wacko.png

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