Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 20/01/13 ----->

[TheWeatherGirl]

still got 4 inches of virgin snow in places! Most of its gone a bit mushy now though ...

[J10]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

"@jgyap57: Hell of a complex occlusion incoming - may even come down to "nowcasting" Oh, unquestionably so, given convective components...

Thius is much trickier to forecast compared to last Friday, was a basic front pushing from South West

This is a very small developing low pressure system, compare the forecast position of the low at 06 Tuesday from the last 4 NAE runs.

http://expert-images...012206_2112.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2106.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2100.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2018.gif

If a severe weather warning was issued on 12Hz run, and the 06Hz run came to fruition, then the snowfall may be completely in the wrong place. Very difficult forecast tonight.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Jackone

[idi_oh_boy]

I see I've upset some of the more uppity members. Seriously, I don't mean to cause problems but some of the stuff you lot post is ludicrous and makes me cringe. If I, by calling you out on it, cause offence then so be it.

Welsh1d10t or whatever your name is - post counts mean nothing save that people may be spending too much indoors. Just because I only have 10 or so, doesn't mean my opinion is invalid.

The majority of you on here are pretty sound but the little boys and their fantasy ruin it. Yet, I'll be called the troll when in actual fact it's the reverse.

Now, go running to the mods or whatever it is you do.

[impster]

Machynlleth, mid Wales.

Almost a complete thaw, some light rain, temps about 5-6C during the day.

Fell to 3C, then we've had about an hour or so of steady snow between 1830-1930. left us half an inch or so of the white stuff, and has stuck on the tarmac. Temps now 2C.

Seems to have stopped now, but very overcast, and guess the possibility of more to come.

Seems that Llanidloes, Newtown way is getting the brunt of today's flurries in the Mid Wales region.

Edited January 21, 2013 by impster

[jenko]

Been like that here all day - oh well at least it wont be as painful when it turns milder, whenever that is!

still got loads here in penallta cwm calon

[Gavla]

I think your the only one living in a fantasy and u dont even make sense your going to be called a troll with posts like that, post your views but critising others is not on and people are entitled to them. I for one know of the more experienced posters on here and try to understand what they say and learn and they seem to have more posts than you.

p.s: if you dont like it here and we make you cringe dont even bother posting simple as that.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Jackone

[Wales123098]

Excuse me? Uppity? Who the hell do you think you are. The actual fact is that you we're wrong last Friday completely wrong. Little boys? I'm a bright student studying Business & Economics at Uni! Weather is 1 of my many interests and I come on here to talk about it and the possibilities and yeah we get a bit excited, sorry about that. We don't get snow too often in Wales so when it is forecasted even if it's a small possibility we will talk about it. Why are you even on here? Just to cause problems no doubt. Your comments are frankly insulting and abusive to many of us on here. Yes I hope someone does go to the moderators and takes you off here, before you came along this was the friendliest forum on netweather.

It's not like we're making stuff up, the NAE and other weather models suggest snow so we are talking about it! What is your problem mate.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Jackone

[virtualsphere]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

"@jgyap57: Hell of a complex occlusion incoming - may even come down to "nowcasting" Oh, unquestionably so, given convective components...

Thius is much trickier to forecast compared to last Friday, was a basic front pushing from South West

This is a very small developing low pressure system, compare the forecast position of the low at 06 Tuesday from the last 4 NAE runs.

http://expert-images...012206_2112.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2106.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2100.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2018.gif

If a severe weather warning was issued on 12Hz run, and the 06Hz run came to fruition, then the snowfall may be completely in the wrong place. Very difficult forecast tonight.

Good post Jackone. The rain / snowfall NAE charts clearly show the differences that a shift in the position of the low can have on precipitation, and if it has changed that much between the 06Z and 12Z runs then there may well still be further shifts before the actual event.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/21/basis06/ukuk/prty/13012212_2106.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/21/basis12/ukuk/prty/13012212_2112.gif

[matty lfc]

Just come back from walking the dog and it's positively mild compared to last few nights.Been a steady thaw all day and it's quite foggy up here now which is never a good sign for snow.Last Friday's snow event just felt completely different to this.

Ive been wrong before but I'd be amazed if we get a lot of snow overnight unless there's a big drop in temps.

Hopefully I'm wrong again.

[Pembroke Dangler]

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

"@jgyap57: Hell of a complex occlusion incoming - may even come down to "nowcasting" Oh, unquestionably so, given convective components...

Thius is much trickier to forecast compared to last Friday, was a basic front pushing from South West

This is a very small developing low pressure system, compare the forecast position of the low at 06 Tuesday from the last 4 NAE runs.

http://expert-images...012206_2112.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2106.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2100.gif

http://expert-images...012206_2018.gif

If a severe weather warning was issued on 12Hz run, and the 06Hz run came to fruition, then the snowfall may be completely in the wrong place. Very difficult forecast tonight.

I'm thinking if there is a small trough developing in the Bristol Channel and we are to the north or north east of this development the winds would be fed in from the east or north east feeding in cold due points from the midlands!

Now if this happens the warmer moist air in the Bristol Channel could cause more convection and so more (heavier) precipitation and this could lead to a fair old dumping anywhere in the South Wales area!

Will be keeping a keen eye on the next nae 18z should be very interesting I think.

[CRACKPOT]

Guys - bring this back into the real world here. We have a possibility of another snow event and looking into differing factors is what this forum, and this friendly Wales regional thread is all about.

You can have someone put on block - do not rise to what sometimes is the intention of some posts (or what appears to be) - we do not want this thread locked because of bickering. Show a bit more maturity or restraint.

I digress but snowing here in Bargoed and hoping for a nice snow event tomorrow particularly as I have booked a day off.

Weather is fun - especially the differing opinions - weather will do what it wants - nature guys.

Let's get back to discussions and leave the bickering to one side.

JK

[blackrose73]

Just had a snow shower here, fresh covering on cars. Fingers crossed for overnight tonight.

[Wales123098]

Guys - bring this back into the real world here. We have a possibility of another snow event and looking into differing factors is what this forum, and this friendly Wales regional thread is all about.

You can have someone put on block - do not rise to what sometimes is the intention of some posts (or what appears to be) - we do not want this thread locked because of bickering. Show a bit more maturity or restraint.

I digress but snowing here in Bargoed and hoping for a nice snow event tomorrow particularly as I have booked a day off.

Weather is fun - especially the differing opinions - weather will do what it wants - nature guys.

Let's get back to discussions and leave the bickering to one side.

JK

Completely agree

[virtualsphere]

.

Good post Jackone. The rain / snowfall NAE charts clearly show the differences that a shift in the position of the low can have on precipitation, and if it has changed that much between the 06Z and 12Z runs then there may well still be further shifts before the actual event.

http://expert-images...012212_2106.gif

http://expert-images...012212_2112.gif

...and I've just looked at the NMM and there are big differences here too between 06Z and 12Z. So not just "will it rain or snow?" but more "will it do anything at my location ... and if so, what?"

Possibly those in SE Wales most likely to see some snow given both runs of both models show precipitation in that area, although still time for it to change. Interestingly, both NAE and NMM are going for snow rather than rain away from the coast.

[freeze for all]

Just took the dog for a walk and it feels much colder than earlier and the wind has now swung around to easterly so hopefully will bring temps down enough for snow! If we get the ppn

[Gavla]

i completely agree too just wanted to make a point the mods can deal with the rest, back to the weather is the system showing on rain today to our sw the system that is meant to be bringing us the chance of snow, seems complicated just watching it last few frames to be onest if it is the actual system.

[virtualsphere]

is the system showing on rain today to our sw the system that is meant to be bringing us the chance of snow, seems complicated just watching it last few frames to be onest if it is the actual system.

Yes, the arc of rain currently over the tip of Cornwall is forecast to spread northwards and develop over Wales as the night and early morning goes on. For the current time (21:00) NAE 12Z has the precipitation accumulation in possibly a slightly more accurate location comparing to the radar than the 06Z with the precip showing closer to the coasts of the SW UK and Ireland, although the differences are slight.

[welshwizard]

i completely agree too just wanted to make a point the mods can deal with the rest, back to the weather is the system showing on rain today to our sw the system that is meant to be bringing us the chance of snow, seems complicated just watching it last few frames to be onest if it is the actual system.

im with you on that as well,it seems small are of precip and I am also not sure if that is the system that is going to give either snow/rain to some. I find it fascinating to watch how these systems seem to be going one way then pull apart and go in different directions etc. I don't have anything other than car for temps so what temps are you guys getting right now around Wales?

[impster]

MACHYNLLETH, 1.8C (slowly dropping)

Edited January 21, 2013 by impster

[bradymk]

0.6c here, clear skies for the first night in a while.

[Panayiotis]

I'm thinking if there is a small trough developing in the Bristol Channel and we are to the north or north east of this development the winds would be fed in from the east or north east feeding in cold due points from the midlands!

Now if this happens the warmer moist air in the Bristol Channel could cause more convection and so more (heavier) precipitation and this could lead to a fair old dumping anywhere in the South Wales area!

Will be keeping a keen eye on the next nae 18z should be very interesting I think.

Great post, along with yourself I will also keep an eye on this, as it screams potential!

[Cymro]

Back home on the beacons and there has been a rapid thaw here since I arrived home at 4pm, can still here sounds of dripping but at a much lesser rate than earlier, temperature is dropping now and the wind is blowing from an easterly/south easterly direction as it currently stands, explains the temperature drop, would love a fresh top up with the moment, we need it.

[Panayiotis]

Latest Metoffice radar shows precipitation staying clear away from SE Wales and its going to W.Wales however looking how it has performed in the last couple of days, it has been quite poor and changes every hour to something different!

It does show something for Wednesday night but not buying into anything just yet!

http://www.metoffice...-4.00&lat=52.77

Edited January 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Stevetynant]

0.4c here in penpedairheol, temperature dropping quit quickly actually

[Gavla]

i am at my mothers in neath at the moment and my dad old thermometer is showing around 0.5c dont know how accurate that is mind lol, fascinating watching the system on radar with much anticipation, heres hoping at least someone gets some snow , i dont know how to access nae or ppn charts when is it due or due at all to hit land? debating whether to stay up again