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Roger J Smith

February 2013 CET (2012/13 Competition)

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CET averages and trivia -- for your interest

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Post a forecast any time before the start of February, or even 1st to 3rd with increasing penalty points. Your forecast should be the actual CET, not an anomaly, to one decimal place. This table will give you all the recent and not so recent averages and extremes to help you choose. When all the entries are in, I post a table like this with your entries added, and that will be over in the new scoring thread. Jackone is your contest organizer, scorer and host. I just like doing this part.

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

8.5 ... hi Craig

7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779

7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869

7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

4.8 ... mean for 2001-2012 (4.75, you might round that down)

4.4 ... mean 1981-2010

4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000

4.0 ... mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000 (2-dec both 4.05 could be rounded up but 3-dec not so)

3.9 ... mean for 1659-2012 (all 354 years)

3.8 ... mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800

2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700

-1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986

-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740

-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855

-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895

-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)

-2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1785)

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

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You can see the rest of the daily records and some daily means too, at the link below:

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8C

Going for a low one then.

Meant light-heartedly. biggrin.png

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What's the coldest February CET since 1986? 1991? 1996? 2010? They were all cold but nothing hugely noteworthy, it would be nice to get something <2c.

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What's the coldest February CET since 1986? 1991? 1996? 2010? They were all cold but nothing hugely noteworthy, it would be nice to get something <2c.

1991 came in at 1.5C, 1996 at 2.5C, and 2010 at 2.8C. These are the three coldest from 1986. I really hope we get a cold one. In my lifetime I have only experienced one significantly below average February, which was 2010. And back then I had no interest in the weather so I don't remember much of it. Last year was good for the first 12 days but then it went horribly mild afterwards and ruined the CET figure.

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A difficult one for me.

I think that the first half of February is likely to be as cold as the second half of January but that we will see a very dry and high pressure dominated pattern for the second half of the month (should still be cold at the surface).

Given that 20 days of cold in January will have delivered a CET over 2C below average despite a warm start i will at this stage go for 1.4C, 3C below the 1981-2010 average.

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i havent a clue what this feb has in stor for us. So as a guess im gona go for 3.1.

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Second week of February the coldest, generally below average. Atlantic going for it later on- milder interludes still prominent, but least likely in upcoming February-

let's have a pop for 2.8c

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Here's a graph of the February CET since 1659, with the 10 year running mean in red and linear trend in black.

post-6901-0-60688400-1358787466_thumb.jp

Thanks for posting this - certainly illustrates that we're overdue a cold one (sub 2C). Surprising period in the early 1700s which only just broke 2C a few times though.

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Thanks for posting this - certainly illustrates that we're overdue a cold one (sub 2C). Surprising period in the early 1700s which only just broke 2C a few times though.

but are we not overdue an above average month, after the run of belows since last august,

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Well this is an extremely hard call for me

Some on the forums are calling a cold spell in February but the met office in there text forecast are currently calling an average February out to the 22nd so who do you believe?

So based on this and how previous Februaries have turned out I am going to call

6.1c

First Half up to 14th

A milder than of late start to the month the first few days of the month is likely to be dominated by the Atlantic bringing wind and rain to all but with some brighter interludes mainly but not exclusively in the east.

During the first full week of February high pressure may move up from the south and bring us a quieter if not cloudy spell of weather.

Second Half 15th onwards

Further through the month temperatures will be around average for most but the south may see some warmer weather at times with temperatures in the high teens epically towards the end of the month.

During this time high pressure could start to edge up from Spain and France giving a quieter spell of weather for a time

Low pressure is mostly likely to affect those in the far north and west the most

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5c for me.

Generally a mild month but I reckon the CET will get dagged back towards 5 via a short cold snap (ie a toppler)

Winter ending overall as just above average.

Jason

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4C for me although I'd love to see a cold february I just can't see this happening.

An average month with a few short cold snaps.

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