North West England Regional Discussion 18/01/13 12z---->

[HotCuppa]

Good. I'll take a side of blizzard with that.

How long do you think the heavier stuff will keep receiving the energy to keep its intensity?

id say quite a few more hours really, friend said we should expect at least until 5pm, then easy to light / moderate until at least midnight, same airport friend...he was not wrong with this or mostly all other forecasts..what we do not want to see obviously is fragmentation on the back end of this front, otherwise light and patchy snow showers...still, not really that concerned right at this moment, as said the front has stalled and is pivoting its not moving any further nE. If it stops forward momentum for a while, like last night, expect intensification on the western side, our side..we have done really well out of this so far, and continuing to benefit from the mersey.

[itsnowjoke]

Its moving closer to us, I think we may still be ok

i dont think so

[mufc]

Hows monday looking anyway

[HotCuppa]

Move north and east and pivot!!!!!!!!!!!

the cold block won't let which is good for us

[Martin M]

Just been out for a walk. Around 5cm in the more sheltered spots. The icy snow remaining from Monday on pavements has led to it being very slippery in places with the new snow on top...

[I Cumbria Marra I]

game over for Cumbria, still yet to see a dusting this winter.

[The Northern Ramper]

The snizzle is pepping up, i might be able to call it light snow soon.

[Snow free zone]

problem is we really need a powerhouse easterly with really cold uppers though and that does'nt look on the menu, really worried by the GFS, be interesting to see the 30 dayer update today, lets hope the milder spell is a blip else i will start to fear the worst.

Been trying to translate some of the model runs. GFS has defaulted to mild for a few runs now, it normally does that but can you ignore it ? ECM looks cold and snowy for the East, METO seems to be a mix of the 2 with potentially another low undercutting sun/mon.

Looks like the meto were correct with precipitation forecasts for today after all, which makes me think the GFS forecast of the snow for sunday getting over to the west rather hopeful IMO.

Never though i'd see people in the East complaining of no snow now you know what it feels like at least you have some on the ground.

[Backtrack]

id say quite a few more hours really, friend said we should expect at least until 5pm, then easy to light / moderate until at least midnight, same airport friend...he was not wrong with this or mostly all other forecasts..what we do not want to see obviously is fragmentation on the back end of this front, otherwise light and patchy snow showers...still, not really that concerned right at this moment, as said the front has stalled and is pivoting its not moving any further nE. If it stops forward momentum for a while, like last night, expect intensification on the western side, our side..we have done really well out of this so far, and continuing to benefit from the mersey.

I do admire your airport friend, he got it right where as the Met Office called it wrong, do the TAFs agree with him?

Front is really fragmenting according to the radar, but I've noticed no let up of the heavy snow currently falling, other than a slight decrease in the size of the flakes. Personally I'd say another hour at best, but another 5 would be nice!

[HotCuppa]

im on the keep the front moving side of the fence! u have lying snow now let us have some haha!

that wont happen because you are on the wrong side of the cold block

Edited January 18, 2013 by HotCuppa

[feb1991blizzard]

Been trying to translate some of the model runs. GFS has defaulted to mild for a few runs now, it normally does that but can you ignore it ? ECM looks cold and snowy for the East, METO seems to be a mix of the 2 with potentially another low undercutting sun/mon.

Looks like the meto were correct with precipitation forecasts for today after all, which makes me think the GFS forecast of the snow for sunday getting over to the west rather hopeful IMO.

Never though i'd see people in the East complaining of no snow now you know what it feels like at least you have some on the ground.

yes, that snow wont get far west on sunday, i just hope we get another shot in feb!

[bridgechad]

that wont happen because you are on the wrong side of the cold block

aye the chance has gone. time to fill my day with something else now

[HotCuppa]

I do admire your airport friend, he got it right where as the Met Office called it wrong, do the TAFs agree with him?

Front is really fragmenting according to the radar, but I've noticed no let up of the heavy snow currently falling, other than a slight decrease in the size of the flakes. Personally I'd say another hour at best, but another 5 would be nice!

yes, going with same forecast, heavy snow until around 5, then easing becoming moderate to light this evening, end of snow is looking like around 12/3am

[NW_Blackburn]

Its moving closer to us, I think we may still be ok

Think it will be mainly very light stuff though which won't accumalate to much if anything!! Hope I'm wrong

[The Northern Ramper]

Thats the worst cam shot snow wise I could find on the traffic cams between Manchester and stoke. Doesn't look too bad as of yet.

http://www.keepmovin...aspx#mapSection (all images lest than 10 mins old)

Check all the NW cams too. It's now where near as bad as the reports are making out lol. I have a covering better that most of those cams!

It's because these people in the South West of our region aren't used to snow, they get a couple hours of snowfall and they want a red alert from the Met Office and the army putting on standby.

[HotCuppa]

I do admire your airport friend, he got it right where as the Met Office called it wrong, do the TAFs agree with him?

Front is really fragmenting according to the radar, but I've noticed no let up of the heavy snow currently falling, other than a slight decrease in the size of the flakes. Personally I'd say another hour at best, but another 5 would be nice!

it is already intensifying as you write..look at the injection from the river to the south

It's because these people in the South West of our region aren't used to snow, they get a couple hours of snowfall and they want a red alert from the Met Office and the army putting on standby.

in the mean time keep crying for snow haha

[Mancunian]

Heres a picture of the M6 motorway

[HotCuppa]

temp now down to -1.9C windchill -17C and both falling away. Heavy snow in strong wind.

[Backtrack]

it is already intensifying as you write..look at the injection from the river to the south

in the mean time keep crying for snow haha

Nah deffo fragmenting, can't see it picking back up again now!

[benricky]

Looks like it's dying out here. Is that it for s. Manc then?

[MrSunshine]

id say quite a few more hours really, friend said we should expect at least until 5pm, then easy to light / moderate until at least midnight, same airport friend...he was not wrong with this or mostly all other forecasts..what we do not want to see obviously is fragmentation on the back end of this front, otherwise light and patchy snow showers...still, not really that concerned right at this moment, as said the front has stalled and is pivoting its not moving any further nE. If it stops forward momentum for a while, like last night, expect intensification on the western side, our side..we have done really well out of this so far, and continuing to benefit from the mersey.

What can I expect for the rest of the afternoon in Billinge mate 4 miles north east of St Helens. Thanks.

[Snow free zone]

Heres a picture of the M6 motorway

Bilmey ..... a whiteout

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh I don't know,on my road you can't tell where the pavement ends and the road begins. Cars skidding about all over the show.

[The snowman]

I am going to be SERIOUSLY, SERIOUSLY micturated OFF if i miss out again!.

[Troubleatmill]

Screw that. Stall & pivot!

No screw that, dont be selfish move north lol