South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th January 2013, 06z Onwards

[AWD]

The GFS shows the most likely solution IMO regarding Sunday/Monday. The low out of France night deliver something small for Hampshire, but I can't see it going further W/NW than that. This is the NAE at 48 hours;

And the GFS for 48 hours;

Both show PPN coming NW out of France and NE from the SW. The front to the SW continues to push NE, altering the path of the low out of France to a more northerly track into Lincolnshire and Humberside.

This is shown here;

But that doesn't mean no snow. The front from the SW continues to push NE and as it hits the cold air over the West Country, it turns to snow;

Won't look into more detail than that currently, but some mainly light snowfall from the SW looks possible on Monday.

[DanDorsetUK]

Eastern areas may get the edge on synday http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[Sainsbo]

So sorry to hear about your loss MR. I hope you feel better soon.

The weather station in my town doesn't seem to be able to detect how much precip has dallen when It's in the form of snow. 5 inches of snow, and only reading 0.6mm If that's the case, I can't wait for the 5mm of snow predicted here Monday.

Love looking at the pictures from eveyrone. It seems most people got some snow atleast

[MR EXTREMES]

still snowing here just flurrys now impressive stuff.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well, Model discussion thread is a bit dead - was wondering what to expect next!

Try these.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75626-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-18th-january-2013-06z-onwards/page__st__680#entry2531094

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75626-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-18th-january-2013-06z-onwards/page__st__680#entry2531228

[Iceberg]

Quick round up of the 12z from me of the general themes for the next 72 hrs or so.

Generally keeping light snow for the sw in various places, well spread though for the next 24 hrs.

Saturday night looks a cold one to me, unless some cloud comes over early from french low -5 to -10's maybe under snow fields.

Sunday evening sees the french low move hampshire east wilts, east glos, however this is a signficant shift in the models from earlier, with a bigger system etc i wouldnt be surprised to see i dorset and parts of east somerset included in that for sunday night.

Monday sees the french low pull away northwards, but at the same time a band of precip come into cornwall and devon (could be a mixture of rain/sleet and snow).

Tuesday sees another band possible edge further east across the SW, if it gets to move northwards enough.

Beyond that is nomans land.

[lfcdude]

Eastern areas may get the edge on synday http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Sydney awwww

[AWD]

UKMO also similiar to the GFS. At 48 hours you have PPN coming out of France into SE England;

Like I said, could affect Hampshire and east Wiltshire. At 60 hours this continues north up the east coast, with a front pushing NE from the SW;

The front from the SW then makes inroads into the West Country and falls as snow as it hits the cold air;

Again, not expecting anything too significant like today at this stage, but as we've seen this week, upgrades happen, so stay tuned folks.

[coldfingers]

4:00pm here in Bognor, just getting darker and it has snowed since 7:30am. Heavy at times and we have had 5 inches of snow in my garden and out on the fields. The last half hour the sky turned black and I thought that would mean rain. Instead we got ice pellets and the temp is currently 1.1C

I have never known it snow non-stop for so long before and I have lived here in Bognor since 1965.

[jessandjon]

UKMO also similiar to the GFS. At 48 hours you have PPN coming out of France into SE England;

Like I said, could affect Hampshire and east Wiltshire. At 60 hours this continues north up the east coast, with a front pushing NE from the SW;

The front from the SW then makes inroads into the West Country and falls as snow as it hits the cold air;

Again, not expecting anything too significant like today at this stage, but as we've seen this week, upgrades happen, so stay tuned folks.

Not going to expect anything then I may get a surprise :-)

[stevofunnelcl]

Gloucester

stopped now, what a beaut day !!

apart from the big lorry that launched a wad of thick brown slush over me when it went past

[coram]

5.25" (13cm) here. Exactly half as much as we got three years ago. I don't think it could have worked out any better for me from this type of event. Still snowing 10 hours after it started, although it is very light now. Might even get another cm or so over the coming hours.

[A.J]

good post there AWD..

righty o.....new thread time....link coming shortly, so finish off any posts you might be making, and I'll repost AWD's post in the new thread....

[Wilxy]

Say hello to Rolf

Great day, and still snowing now but very fine flakes.

[Sainsbo]

So, it looks at this stage that the low from France may not be too bothersome. But what about the low out to the SW on Monday. Could that pose a threat of further snow?

[Erbyskerby]

Thanks for the updates all - I know most of you are too busy playing to look at the models! Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts, much appreciated.

[gottolovethisweather]

So sorry to hear about your loss MR. I hope you feel better soon.

The weather station in my town doesn't seem to be able to detect how much precip has dallen when It's in the form of snow. 5 inches of snow, and only reading 0.6mm If that's the case, I can't wait for the 5mm of snow predicted here Monday.

Love looking at the pictures from eveyrone. It seems most people got some snow atleast

Better than mine though, my precipitation reading is 0mm, but that could be something to do with it being an ICE day during daylight hours. Maximum low was -1.5c and that was at 10:15 and that is where the Temp stands right now.

Last measurement I did was several hours ago and it was 80mm then, most probably 130-150mm as of now.

[A.J]

new thread here ---------->

closing this one shortly....

[AWD]

So, it looks at this stage that the low from France may not be too bothersome. But what about the low out to the SW on Monday. Could that pose a threat of further snow?

That's the one I think we should look at next, yes. See how it evolves in the next 48 hours.

[SNOWYLAD]

Well today was fun while it lasted, now left with a horrible slushy, sludgy mess that is just waiting to freeze overnight. The problem here in South Somerset was that the temperatures were never particularly cold in the days before and a good dose of rain before the snow meant it was never going to stay and temperature have hit nearly 3 degrees here this afternoon with that familiar drip, drip, drip sound.

Sunday's snow looks too far East to affect anybody west of Hampshire and with temperatures slightly rising on Monday this has not been a great snow event, 2009 & 2010 were far better.

[A.J]

ok, couple of posts transferred over from this thread and .......there you have it, thread is closed