Far North of England Regional Discussion - Cold and Snow 17/01/13 ->

[NickR]

It looks to me like they're missing us! All going to the N of the region, above T and W!

[Hagler]

Both the national and regional forecasts seemed to be somewhat of a downgrade.

[NickR]

Dewpoints for Monday still look way too high to me. And they coincide with the heaviest ppn.. that would be a kick in the unmentionables.

[tynevalleysnow]

The met office forecast for my postcode is more of an upgrade for today and tomorrow I'd say with heavy snow from 1800 today till tomorrow 1200 and then light snow.

[Isolated Frost]

Some scattered heavy snow showers today on the SE breeze.

Tomorrow, much heavier ones and more organised with the breeze turning E/NE.

Sunday looks less active, but still some showers, and a band moves in from the S, that could clip us and give us a few cms.

[NickR]

Some scattered heavy snow showers today on the SE breeze.

Tomorrow, much heavier ones and more organised with the breeze turning E/NE.

Sunday looks less active, but still some showers, and a band moves in from the S, that could clip us and give us a few cms.

And Monday, when the heaviest ppn could hit? Looking poor I think still.

[Isolated Frost]

I'm going to enjoy the next few days before thinking about what comes afterwards.

Sleet on the coast, snow inland my prediction for Monday and Tuesday. Heavy at times.

[NickR]

I'm going to enjoy the next few days before thinking about what comes afterwards.

Sleet on the coast, snow inland my prediction for Monday and Tuesday. Heavy at times.

Cheers!

But you also think today-Sunday is less stellar than it looked yesterday?

[Isolated Frost]

Cheers!

But you also think today-Sunday is less stellar than it looked yesterday?

Convection-wise, definitely (though the morning could have quite a bit in it with a E/NE'ly)

Snow-wise, not exactly. HD-ECM has tracked that band off the coast of SE England that is forecast to move northwards, expect East Anglia and the South East to see 2-5cm, up to 10cm locally, and for N Yorkshire, NE England, Lincolnshire and SE Scotland to clip some of it and get between 1-5cm.

[Alex95]

The winds will be veering more E'ly as the day progresses, so its certainly too early to call a non event. The radar looks interesting for Berwick now, so hopefully a bit more of that will come onshore later.

This is the equivalent of a NNW'ly where we want the winds to veer N'ly, except this time it's SSE'ly to SE'ly.

Edited January 18, 2013 by Alza

[jennyifer]

I really don't think here in northeast we are going to get much snow at all.looking at a few forecast.s this morning it seems we might get a few showers.nothing much hope i am wrong though.

[NickR]

Convection-wise, definitely (though the morning could have quite a bit in it with a E/NE'ly)

Snow-wise, not exactly. HD-ECM has tracked that band off the coast of SE England that is forecast to move northwards, expect East Anglia and the South East to see 2-5cm, up to 10cm locally, and for N Yorkshire, NE England, Lincolnshire and SE Scotland to clip some of it and get between 1-5cm.

GFS 00z still look great for convection to my eyes right till the end of Sunday virtually. Am I missing something? :-S

[Snowstorm1]

No snow overnight here

[NL]

Only a few light showers were forecast last night , the forecast has always had the NE snow this afternoon and overnight..!!!

Yes the snow potential over the weekend has been slightly downgraded but can easily be upgraded again, thats the nature of predicting snowfall..

Edited January 18, 2013 by NL

[P-M]

Come on here this morning.... Jesus some people get a grip and chill! Radar and now cast there's still loads of potential....we live in the UK not Siberia - some people need to remember that!

[Alex95]

Come on here this morning.... Jesus some people get a grip and chill! Radar and now cast there's still loads of potential....we live in the UK not Siberia - some people need to remember that!

I haven't actually seen this downgrade! To me it looks as good as it ever did, apart from Monday looking even more rainy on the GFS at least, haven't looked at the others.

Edited January 18, 2013 by Alza

[Hagler]

Come on here this morning.... Jesus some people get a grip and chill! Radar and now cast there's still loads of potential....we live in the UK not Siberia - some people need to remember that!

I'm not sure what the problem is? In what respect do people need to chill?

[NickR]

Re Monday - here's a conversation I had on TWO:

A: Very complex fax charts moday.

B: Looks like snow pushing North to me probably heaviest in the East.

http://www.wetterzen...ics/brack2a.gif

ME: I don't like the dewpoints though. GFS has them above 0°C for those areas:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs878.gif

ANy thoughts? Would they be forced down in heavy ppn? Does the UKMO look better for the DPs?

C:

http://meteocentre.c...VV_072_0850.gif

Marginal for the far South perhaps but snow for most I would think.

Edited January 18, 2013 by NickR

[Penrith Snow]

Both the national and regional forecasts seemed to be somewhat of a downgrade.

Yes, shower activity predicted to be less this morning particulary west of the Pennines.

Oh well I could always cut the grass Andy

[Isolated Frost]

I'm going for intermittent snow shrs, esp for Northumberland today- plenty moving into the populated parts this afternoon and evening. Localised accumulations of 2 to 5cm are likely.

Tomorrow sees a more easterly direction, with heavy snow shrs across most of the region, especially eastern counties and high ground in Northumberland.

Sunday looks snowy in the early hours, before fading out- though it turns snowy from the S due to an organised band in the evening, affecting the east coast most.

Monday and Tuesday look very heavy and strong precip wise, should be very marginal, but with low surface temps and evaporative cooling, sleet and snow likely.

[P-M]

I'm not sure what the problem is? In what respect do people need to chill?

Not gonna write a huge message explaining myself - read the previous posts calling downgrade and moaning on and then actually look at what is being reflected.... There isn't a problem by the way never said there was but people are just never happy with what they have are they? We have some potential left but because its not showing 29ft snow drifts and severe blizzard conditions its all down beat and negative and before you come back with anything please read the last couple of pages....anyone would think that we are going to be in mild sw'lys by Monday!

[NickR]

Not gonna write a huge message explaining myself - read the previous posts calling downgrade and moaning on and then actually look at what is being reflected.... There isn't a problem by the way never said there was but people are just never happy with what they have are they? We have some potential left but because its not showing 29ft snow drifts and severe blizzard conditions its all down beat and negative and before you come back with anything please read the last couple of pages....anyone would think that we are going to be in mild sw'lys by Monday!

I disagree. How downbeat you are depends on expectations - it's not some absolute measurement; it's relative to what you were expecting. Moreover, it's fairly clear - I would have thought - that seeing a huge swathe of the country getting blizzard conditions and the inches piling up is obviously going to heighten a sense of frustration when what we might have had has been downgraded. Basic human psychology really.

[Alex95]

Can someone please tell me what the downgrade is, compared to what was shown yesterday?

[P-M]

I disagree. How downbeat you are depends on expectations - it's not some absolute measurement; it's relative to what you were expecting. Moreover, it's fairly clear - I would have thought - that seeing a huge swathe of the country getting blizzard conditions and the inches piling up is obviously going to heighten a sense of frustration when what we might have had has been downgraded. Basic human psychology really.

Grrr nick man.... Can you ever just come on here and be up-beat?? Yes I know it's disappointing don't get me wrong but seriously we are still in with a shout with something man. Ok so parts of the country have blizzards...we have a shot at heavy convective snow showers... Also to note that we can't get every bit of snow all of the time. Spare a thought for the people in the SW who are struggling to get a covering? I get what you're saying but some reality checks need to also play a part...as stated this is the UK not Siberia or Moscow......expect a let down and you won't feel like you do.

Edited January 18, 2013 by Wishful-Thinking

[NL]

The only slight downgrade Ive seen is on the BBC graphics on the TV this mornin', the modelling still shows the same as it has always shown snowfall all over the NE.