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BBC / Met Office minimum temp forecasts

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Has everyone else noticed that the BBC weather forecasts by the Met Office do not show minimum air temperatures anymore?

They will only show minimums in towns or cities and therefore showing temperature minimums way too high!

Example; the southeast nightime minimums were forecast at -4C widely. However the minimums were -8C and even below.

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I've also noticed that they tend to forecast temperatures too high, especially minima. They also can be guilty of forecasting too low in places that are typically colder.

For example, Last night they showed lows of about -4C in east Anglia when you had widespread temperatures well below that, yet they showed lows of I think -9C for SW Scotland when in fact it was much milder than that there.

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60-90% of Britain's population - depending on how you define urban - live in cities or larger towns so the urban air temperatures are more relevant. In all fairness, they do often mention to shave a few degrees off out in the countryside.

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It seems a strange way to go about it though, surely the definition of a 'minimum' is the lowest temperature - not the lowest where most people live.

The temperatures they place on the map aren't directly linked to a specific town or city.

It was hilarious yesterday with them warning about icy patches and frost soon returning when it was already about -10 here.

They used to do something similar in Romania where even if it was -20 the forecast mostly said it was sunny and 13 degrees.

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It seems a strange way to go about it though, surely the definition of a 'minimum' is the lowest temperature - not the lowest where most people live.

The temperatures they place on the map aren't directly linked to a specific town or city.

It was hilarious yesterday with them warning about icy patches and frost soon returning when it was already about -10 here.

They used to do something similar in Romania where even if it was -20 the forecast mostly said it was sunny and 13 degrees.

Yes, but most people aren't purists like weather enthusiasts on forums might be, and they'd want to know what the minimum temperature in their local area, which is very often a large town or city. Furthermore, the BBC often mention at the start of the forecast when a very low temperature of <-15c has been recorded, even if it is in a valley in the Grampians. I think they cater quite well.

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Posted · Hidden by Ed Stone, January 18, 2013 - Same shit, different day!
Hidden by Ed Stone, January 18, 2013 - Same shit, different day!

I think its deliberate warming bias again.

We are all well aware of the Urban Heat Island Effect. However, if they only show maximas which are correct in hot weather to take into account inner cities but disregard the much colder minimums in the winter on their charts it is clear that people get a message that its actually warmer than reality.

This could also account for why the Met Office was so slow to acknowledge that there hasnt been warming for years.

Lets not forget though that both the BBC and the Met Office are funded by the government through our taxes. Government policy is to sell Global Warming to all of us, they teach it as a fact to all children in schools and the policy is to sell us new climate taxes.

Thats why I personally think that we are being drip fed warming and warmer by any method. I was agasp over the past few days that the BBC Met Office forecast was only showing minimums of between -1C and -4C throughout the whole of England. They had the clear data from around the country with widespread lows of -8C to -12C but they didnt want to show it on the charts.

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Not everybody is well aware of the UHI effect. All those on forums are surely interested and much of the public may be, but my no means the majority. Even if we all were, the rural temperatures are irrelevant to many people.

You also should acknowledge that daytime temperatures tend not to have quite so much a difference between urban and rural locations, so the maxima forecast are more likely to apply to both rural and urban locations. You're not looking at this from the point of view of someone who isn't particularly interested in weather an would prefer to simply know what the conditions are like in their back garden.

Government policy is to relay the overwhelming scientific consensus that the earth is warming and that it is caused by humans. That is why it is taught as fact to children at schools: its causes and its existence have a scientific consensus (its future and its effects are not).

pie-chart-climate.png.492x0_q85_crop-smart.jpg

Unless scientists are willing to sacrifice their integrity and be 'in on it' too?

However, this is all irrelevant. It's not about global climate, it's about local climate in mostly urbanised Britain. They have chosen to include temperatures that are warmer than they would be if large settlements weren't presents because the majority of people live in said large settlements. No-one is using minimum temperatures in their local area projected on their TV channel to measure the extent of warming across the globe and you'd be a fool to do this, or to use them to suspect a governmental bias on something rather different.

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Posted · Hidden by Ed Stone, January 18, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by Ed Stone, January 18, 2013 - No reason given

It is a 'warmist' agenda, I have no doubt about that

BFTP

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Telling people the minium temperature they are likely to experience rather than the possible extreme minimum they could experience if they happen to visit a remote weather station in a frost hollow, is clearly a warmist agenda . Henceforth, the BBC should be giving us the temps for Altnaharra, Braemar and Shap and ignore places like London and Birmingham which everyone knows do not experience proper, representative temperatures :D

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Posted · Hidden by Ed Stone, January 18, 2013 - Not Climate Thread...
Hidden by Ed Stone, January 18, 2013 - Not Climate Thread...

Not everybody is well aware of the UHI effect. All those on forums are surely interested and much of the public may be, but my no means the majority. Even if we all were, the rural temperatures are irrelevant to many people.

You also should acknowledge that daytime temperatures tend not to have quite so much a difference between urban and rural locations, so the maxima forecast are more likely to apply to both rural and urban locations. You're not looking at this from the point of view of someone who isn't particularly interested in weather an would prefer to simply know what the conditions are like in their back garden.

Government policy is to relay the overwhelming scientific consensus that the earth is warming and that it is caused by humans. That is why it is taught as fact to children at schools: its causes and its existence have a scientific consensus (its future and its effects are not).

pie-chart-climate.png.492x0_q85_crop-smart.jpg

Unless scientists are willing to sacrifice their integrity and be 'in on it' too?

However, this is all irrelevant. It's not about global climate, it's about local climate in mostly urbanised Britain. They have chosen to include temperatures that are warmer than they would be if large settlements weren't presents because the majority of people live in said large settlements. No-one is using minimum temperatures in their local area projected on their TV channel to measure the extent of warming across the globe and you'd be a fool to do this, or to use them to suspect a governmental bias on something rather different.

There will clearly be a mismatch between urban temperatures and the real official max and min temperatures. The policy change to only showing urban is misleading to everyone. It mislead me this week (and I am a seasoned forecaster) into thinking that it just was not that cold because mins were only forecast at -1C to -4C by the Met Office on National TV. I was putting it down in the back of my mind to cloud cover. But it wasnt the case. The information was wrong.

Its far more correct to have continued with the actual minimum temperatures and mentioned that it will be warmer in large towns and cities.

I am suspicious that this is the reason for the official temperature statistics showing a warming signal...most particularly when the warming signal is mainly due to increased minimas. Maybe the adjustment for the UHI signal is incorrect, in particular with regard to your very pertinent point that the UHI effect is most pronounced at night.

Anyway, we digress......

I personally would prefer the real data and the established forecasting methods used for hundreds of years. There was never an anouncement for this change.

Further, I believe its dangerous because if the temps in the Cities and towns are well above freezing at +5C for instance then it could lead to more accidents on the roads due to widespread ground temperatures of subzero everywhere else on a clear night during the winter months. This new policy change for whatever reason wont help the cause of reducing road accidents thats for sure.

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Posted · Hidden by Ed Stone, January 18, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by Ed Stone, January 18, 2013 - No reason given

Telling people the minium temperature they are likely to experience rather than the possible extreme minimum they could experience if they happen to visit a remote weather station in a frost hollow, is clearly a warmist agenda . Henceforth, the BBC should be giving us the temps for Altnaharra, Braemar and Shap and ignore places like London and Birmingham which everyone knows do not experience proper, representative temperatures biggrin.png

I know you are making your point by having fun Andy, but showing a -2C minima for East Anglia on the BBC weather charts at a time when the real lows were -12C in the same location (infact not even above -5C in some parts all day) is absolutely wrong IMO.

Essex and Suffolk are right here in the southeast and millions of people live in urban areas here ....Even though you are making fun, mentioning bleak places seven hundred miles away where nobody lives simply muddies the water.

The minimas this week on national tv were so wrong it was an absolute joke.

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BBC is usually always over estimating temps for Newport.

M.O also forecasting lows of -1 tonight but we have a lot of snow so I thought it'd be more like -5 or below.. wacko.png

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As far as I have noticed the opposite seems to be happening as far as Watford is concerned, the temperatures rarely get down to the forecast level, in fact it is showing -0.1C at the moment of writing - we must be on our own little heat island anybody fancy coming over for a barbie over the weekend biggrin.png

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