South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 17th Januray 2013, 12z Onwards

[gottolovethisweather]

CHECK THIS OUT.

http://www.netweathe...chaelfish;sess=

Edited January 17, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[SMU]

_{The updated 12z NMM at T20}

_{http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmm-1-20-0.png?17-18}

_{http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm/nmm-1-26-0.png?17-12 06z T26}

_{has the PPN more widespread for the south at 9am tomorrow- A good update if you live in the south-}

_S

[chris55]

What one?

The one over the UK isnt..

The one out to the west I *think* is...? Yet its moving in a bit too fast if you ask me.. So not sure... ?>?>?>?

Yes the one to the west is the main front.

Also for those surprised at the dusting for some, the NAE has been showing this for a while,

Although the BBC forecast didn't pick it up, maybe they were modified and expected it to fizzle a bit more.

Main frnt get going towards Midnight,

Edited January 17, 2013 by chris55

[liam300]

Sorry guys nobody answered my question earlier

Why is rain predicted tomorrow eveningstraight after the snow?

[farmer2555]

Currently raining in Yeovil :-(

[divadee]

Patience Grasshopper

[Kiwi]

Yes - similar here in Alton. Beginning to give a dusting. The area of snow on radar has grown appreciably in last hour or two

Where has this come from.....? Temp here now 0.0c

Yes similar here temp 0c dewpoint -1.1c. Steady v light snow falling and has been for the last hour.

A dusting on all surfaces now. A nice surprise!

[Andy Pepler]

John Kettley is a weatherman

a weatherman

a weatherman

John Kettley is a weatherman

and so is Michael Fish

CHECK THIS OUT.

http://www.netweathe...chaelfish;sess=

[Mark Neal.]

Snow turning a little bit heavier now, prob 3/10 on my snow-ometer scale (made up!) It is settling though on tops of cars, pavements and on a frosty layer of grass.

[Blizzardof82]

I don't think he done the lunchtime forecast either? Not sure if he normally does, maybe a day off, not sure really.

Started work at 2pm and I imagine he will be up all night according to BBCRB he has booked himself hotel tonight, I have to say we are very lucky in this region to have such a dedicated forecaster.

[EGHH]

What one?

The one over the UK isnt..

The one out to the west I *think* is...? Yet its moving in a bit too fast if you ask me.. So not sure... ?>?>?>?

Here you go. Today's precipitation is just the upper front (the top section of the front has sheared and moved ahead of the lower down bit for want of a better definition)

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

What one?

The one over the UK isnt..

The one out to the west I *think* is...? Yet its moving in a bit too fast if you ask me.. So not sure... ?>?>?>?

Got to be honest the snow is quite heavy with big flakes, completely white, this was not expected

[divadee]

Temp 4.9c dp 0c and wind S

I am going to get no sleep tonight!

[chris55]

GEM siding with GFS on Mondays Low, great for us lot!!!!!

[dec10snow]

CHECK THIS OUT.

http://www.netweathe...chaelfish;sess=

I'm still not liking this! Too much rain after the snow!

[Dean E]

Sorry guys nobody answered my question earlier

Why is rain predicted tomorrow eveningstraight after the snow?

Good question and as I'm just up the road, I'll try and give you an answer!

With every snow event, the Met Office always put as down with Sleet or rain after the event. The reason why is because there model or human input counters in the Wind off of the Channel, bringing temperatures up a notch and changing the lighter PPN over to rain or sleet.

I have no answer as to why they have done this, this time around. Uppers are Good, dew points (predicted anyway) are perfect and the winds will in fact be swinging around the the ESE/E with colder uppers aloft. With the snow cover surface temps should be way below freezing.

Hope this helps!

SM

[khodds]

Phew! Thanks everyone re. The current rain. Just got home, temp 3.3c and DP 0c.

I'm not going to be able to sleep tonight!

[124alex]

Phew! Thanks everyone re. The current rain. Just got home, temp 3.3c and DP 0c.

I'm not going to be able to sleep tonight!

still raining?

[dec10snow]

Good question and as I'm just up the road, I'll try and give you an answer!

With every snow event, the Met Office always put as down with Sleet or rain after the event. The reason why is because there model or human input counters in the Wind off of the Channel, bringing temperatures up a notch and changing the lighter PPN over to rain or sleet.

I have no answer as to why they have done this, this time around. Uppers are Good, dew points (predicted anyway) are perfect and the winds will in fact be swinging around the the ESE/E with colder uppers aloft. With the snow cover surface temps should be way below freezing.

Hope this helps!

SM

Thank you! Very helpful for me aswell, as I'm here worrying myself about the rain after the event... So you think it won't rain after? Thanks for your input snow mania

[Jamie R]

If I can get there I will in the deep snow all day tomorrow it seems, probably wont be allowed on either the Middle or the Military road to get there though, even if its only 2 inches deep they will be closed I bet.

Haha that would be a classic case! I think the island has a good solid chance of something reasonable (away from the south and east coast).

I have plans to go up Chillerton down if things 'work out'.

The main issue will be quite warm ground temperatures in many locations on the island.

I made this crude map for a friend of mine. The small clustering of heavier snow marks where the downs are.

[cerneman]

Phew! Thanks everyone re. The current rain. Just got home, temp 3.3c and DP 0c.

I'm not going to be able to sleep tonight!

Sounds like be pyjama party on here tonight

[chris55]

Got to be honest the snow is quite heavy with big flakes, completely white, this was not expected

This is the perfect example of why the radar and the window is best the over the next 24 hours, we have had snowflakes in the wind for most of the day,. but nothing on the ground, whereas SSIB in Northleach (20 miles away) has seen settling snow.

Snow can be so localised, just as rain can, but nobody ever notices localised rain lol.

Edited January 17, 2013 by chris55

[nick sussex]

I've just done a quick paint job here:

The area to look for is northern and ne France, bear in mind when you look at the fax chart although it might look like a more s/se flow because you have high pressure to the ne with low pressure out west then the actual surface flow should pull round more to the east or ese.

Heres the link for that, the key is the dew point.

http://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/point-de-rosee.php

The actual flow at the moment has moved towards the s/sw and thats why you're seeing that temporary elevation in temps and dew points.

[jonlu69]

anyone else having problems with the v6 radar, got placemats all over the shop !!

[BristolBlizzard]

CHECK THIS OUT.

http://www.netweathe...chaelfish;sess=

I really hope many of us are on the right side of marginal, because this could produce insane amounts

It's looking like the NE of this region is going to get pasted