Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013, 12z onwards

[Sionzzz]

I dont believe it, snow has disappeared totally on the met office forecast for here now, just says overcast. I really hope they have that wrong, only we could be under an amber warning and have no snow at all. Somebody has reactivated the snow shield

It's been happening all day, upgrading, downgrading, I feel like I'm on a roller coster ride, quite confident we'll see something though.

[bradymk]

Front starting to develop nicely now to our SW and is starting to slow down, will expand much more before landfall. A point will hit where Temp and DP plummet, until then, its positively balmy out tonight, 4c for many.

[CRACKPOT]

the front doesn't look that impressive - is there real confidence behind the amounts in the warnings?

JK

[bradymk]

the front doesn't look that impressive - is there real confidence behind the amounts in the warnings?

JK

every atlantic front is like this when its that far away from landfall, keep watching and watch it expand hugely around 11pm or so.

[Ginkrots]

I hear that precip showing on the radar isn't even the front. This is a quote from south west england thread..

Of interest...

The main band isnt on the radar yet (as expected, circled as '1'), however, the 'small' occluded front that prceeds this (2) is actually really heavy and potentially more potent that forecast...

[Sionzzz]

Any one have any thoughts on north Wales? Are we likely to see a good amount of snow?

[Elnonio]

I love the way we all believe the models out in FI but once its on the doorstep with a red warning over some and an amber over most, we all start doubting that it's even going to snow - nowt funny as folk!!

[Jase]

Is this a good sign, it's 2c outside and I'm only 2 miles inland from the coast!! Has been 3c for most of the day here

[J10]

I love the way we all believe the models out in FI but once its on the doorstep with a red warning over some and an amber over most, we all start doubting that it's even going to snow - nowt funny as folk!!

Considering the potential of this, nervousness is completely understandable.

[Telegram 4 Mongo]

Small area of precip making landfall in west Pembs ahead of the first band ... Any reports on this ?

Swansea at 4 pm lower ground was 4-3 , higher ground 3-2 degrees dropped to 2 but has risen a few degrees since then .

Any more and the barby will be considered !

The above temps are from my vehicle stat so will have a high tolerance band , but a good guide .

Hope the colder air clashes quickly or it's rain to start .

[Buzz]

A number of people are currently looking at the radar and thinking that the precipitation showing up at the tip of Cornwall is the main front with all the snow - it isn't. The main front isn't yet showing on the radar, although you can see it coming into the southwest of Ireland if you look at the Satellite imagery. For example:

http://www.sat24.com/de/eu

Remember that the warm and cold fronts are occluding, basically that means that the cold front is catching up with the warm front. More details here:

http://en.wikipedia..../Occluded_front

Step through the fax charts for midday today until midday Friday and you can see what is forecast to happen:

http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/,.gif,bracknell+00,bracknell+24,bracknell+36,bracknell+48,bracknell+60,bracknell+72,bracknell+84,bracknell+96,bracknell+108,bracknell+120,bracknell+132

Edited January 17, 2013 by Buzz

[J10]

every atlantic front is like this when its that far away from landfall, keep watching and watch it expand hugely around 11pm or so.

How many times do you see front advance from SW and think there doesn't appear to much there, only for it for it seemingly never end.

hopefully the same applies with snow potential as well as rain.

[Jackfrost]

Considering the amount of attention being given to this event, and the warnings of valley towns being cut off etc, I can't help but wonder if the estimated snow amounts are a little conservative, particularly over the areas forecast to be worst hit. Thoughts? Or is it the drifting that's the main issue here? We'll have to wait and see by the end of tomorrow to know for certain of course.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Jackfrost

[CardiffStorm]

Any one have any thoughts on north Wales? Are we likely to see a good amount of snow?

North Wales will be getting some snow, not as much as South Wales so perhaps 5-10cm. Depends exactly where in North Wales. Where you are in Llanrwst will most definitely be getting decent snow.

[David 'Minty' Hill]

Hey Jack what you rekon for those of us outside swansea and around the bay I am not far from you buddy and car showed 6oC on the porthcawl straight at 4:30 if it does snow for us here I would imagine it be really heavy for us as we are first to get it. Have seen some awsome storms brew up out of knowere in the bristol channel.

[CardiffStorm]

Considering the amount of attention being given to this event, and the warnings of towns in the Valleys being cut off etc, I can't help wondering if the estimated snow amounts are a little conservative. Thoughts? Or is it the drifting that is the main issue here?

I'd say it's the drifting that will cause major problems. Met Office have been stressing the wind all day.

[benb]

Not sure, but I think the blue is the precipitation-

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/ir2-l.jpg

If so, looks pretty hefty to me...

[bradymk]

How many times do you see front advance from SW and think there doesn't appear to much there, only for it for it seemingly never end.

hopefully the same applies with snow potential as well as rain.

haha yes everything always seems different for snow events. NAE and NMM both show the precip intensifying and expanding at around 11pm to midnight, we shall see.

[David 'Minty' Hill]

I'd say it's the drifting that will cause major problems. Met Office have been stressing the wind all day.

Strange thing is its dead silent outside wind wise, do you think the sudden wind gush will be a rapid event.

[bradymk]

Strange thing is its dead silent outside wind wise, do you think the sudden wind gush will be a rapid event.

expect the wind to increase over the next few hours, windier on coasts and higher ground, winds wont really get going until midnight although its pretty windy here in Pembs right now!

[Telegram 4 Mongo]

Late ish night last night , and have cancelled work tomorrow so can work from home instead , but how can we be expected to go to sleep with this mega event starting to unfold later this evening ?

I suspect where I am in Swansea and west of here it will start as rain and we will initially be frustrated , retire to bed slightly irked , but awake in the middle of the night and find there is no sound of rain pattering the glazing .... This will then lead to a Thomson gazelle like leap out of bed to a blizzard fest outside !

[Ginkrots]

Strange thing is its dead silent outside wind wise, do you think the sudden wind gush will be a rapid event.

It's been windy in Newport for 1 or 2 hours now, just been out and it's quite gusty!

Edited January 17, 2013 by ginkrots

[benb]

Rain here- gusty SSE wind and 5.3c...

[David 'Minty' Hill]

Looks like things are hotting up in the bristol channel with showers popping up suddenly thats a very good sign I dont have rain snow radar tho does anyone else

[Angleseylad]

Evening....Temp 4.3C here