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Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013, 12z onwards

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Here's a new one to discuss all that lovely potential!!!

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Anyone else thinking the front is moving in fairly quickly? Its starting to develop intensity nicely now.

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Anyone else thinking the front is moving in fairly quickly?

I thought the same thing,....some talk on here of it stalling though

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Anyone else thinking the front is moving in fairly quickly?

Not that I know anything about weather but I would say it would slow down as it came up against the colder air , but thats only a guess :)

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Not that I know anything about weather but I would say it would slow down as it came up against the colder air , but thats only a guess smile.png

Yes it will slow down quite a bit soon and the wind will then strengthen across all areas, temperatures will remain quite high until just before the front hits so dont worry if your still 3c at midnight even, its expected.

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This front thats come in, isnt the main event that doesnt come until tonight

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It does seem to be moving slightly faster than I would have thought. I would have had it's current position at around 22:00. I'm pretty sure it's going to slow down and stall tomorrow morning though.

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Must be serious Powys CC have cancelled all school transport to our lads school (llanfyllin) tomorrow - therefore the school has decided to close ...... my lads are gutted!!biggrin.png

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Yes it will slow down quite a bit soon and the wind will then strengthen across all areas, temperatures will remain quite high until just before the front hits so dont worry if your still 3c at midnight even, its expected.

It's also quite possible that it will start off as rain or sleet in the more borderline areas, but as the colder air is dragged in and precipitation intensity increases then evaporative cooling will take effect and turn any rain and sleet to wet snow ........... unless you're in a poorer location such as a west facing coast.

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This front thats come in, isnt the main event that doesnt come until tonight

The rain currently on the radar to our south west is the main event however it will slow quite considerably as it approaches the welsh coast.

It does seem to be moving slightly faster than I would have thought. I would have had it's current position at around 22:00. I'm pretty sure it's going to slow down and stall tomorrow morning though.

Looking at NAE, it is in really in the same position currently as modelled, the model then shows it slow considerably.

It's also quite possible that it will start off as rain or sleet in the more borderline areas, but as the colder air is dragged in and precipitation intensity increases then evaporative cooling will take effect and turn any rain and sleet to wet snow ........... unless you're in a poorer location such as a west facing coast.

Yes this must be noted aswell, if your area starts off as rain, this is also not too much of a problem and the cold air will gradually undercut the precip so later on, (people in western areas) dont worry if its rain or sleet to begin with.

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Light snow in Mold here, NE Wales, 120m asl. Is there any chance of streamers setting up in Irish Sea before the main front arrives or is the wind already from the SE?

Oh - and why does the met office show the amber warning as red at the moment or has this already been discussed - only just got in?

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I posted this in the other thread also, thanks :)A question if I may: There is so much hype surrounding this, red warnings and talk of cut off villages. Yet, the snow forecast is but half of that which fell in Dec 2010, when I hardly heard a peep?

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Strengthening, gusty SE wind here now. I'm up to 6c! Certainly doesn't feel it!

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I posted this in the other thread also, thanks smile.pngA question if I may: There is so much hype surrounding this, red warnings and talk of cut off villages. Yet, the snow forecast is but half of that which fell in Dec 2010, when I hardly heard a peep?

I think the winds this time make a big difference. 50mph gusts in places will create extensive drifting with big drifts likely, some roads may be hedge to hedge. So it may not be as deep as some places in 2010 regarding snow depth itself, but with snow drifts, the snow will seem a lot deeper and will be more disruptive

Strengthening, gusty SE wind here now. I'm up to 6c! Certainly doesn't feel it!

really? 3.8c here with wind picking up, really is a big difference between south and further north of Pembs regarding temps at times.

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Issued at: 1230 on Thu 17 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0300 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2100 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

A band of snow, heavy in places, will spread northeastwards across Wales and the southwestern half of England, during Friday morning, lasting through the afternoon and evening across much of Wales, the Midlands, southern and parts of southeast England. Winds will strengthen, leading to drifting of lying snow.

Many parts of the Red Warning area are likely to have 20-30 cm of snow with strong southeasterly winds causing blizzards, severe drifting of lying snow and thus severe disruption. The public should avoid all non-essential journeys.

Elsewhere, accumulations of more than 5-10 cm of snow will occur quite widely, with 15 cm in some western parts of the Amber area, falling within 3-6 hours. The public should be prepared for disruption, including altering travel plans.

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I posted this in the other thread also, thanks smile.pngA question if I may: There is so much hype surrounding this, red warnings and talk of cut off villages. Yet, the snow forecast is but half of that which fell in Dec 2010, when I hardly heard a peep?

Maybe stronger winds this time round will lead to more drifting and, I maybe wrong about this, but I seem to remember several smaller falls of snow rather than a particularly massive fall in one go. Also, apart from the final front (similar set up to this?) that eventually led to the breakdown of the cold spell, much of the previous snow events were streamers and therefore not entirely countrywide?

I remember driving through the hills above Brynammen after one of those streamers and there was well over a foot of level snow that day.

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I posted this in the other thread also, thanks smile.pngA question if I may: There is so much hype surrounding this, red warnings and talk of cut off villages. Yet, the snow forecast is but half of that which fell in Dec 2010, when I hardly heard a peep?

Situation similar to 19 78 front approached from the s west stalled and a wave formed plus brisk wins leading to drifting snow must be the same fax as now Daniel fax36s.gif?16-0

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2.6c here in Pontyates. Bitterly cold in the wind.

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really? 3.8c here with wind picking up, really is a big difference between south and further north of Pembs regarding temps at times.

Milford 7c at 4.00pm, according to XC Weather! But, as you say, temps should start dropping off as the front approaches... hopefully!

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Milford 7c at 4.00pm, according to XC Weather! But, as you say, temps should start dropping off as the front approaches... hopefully!

A slight temperature rise is to be expected as the front approaches - it's an occluded front and originally had some mild air in it which wil be mixed out as it sucks in the colder continental air. However, just ahead of it there will be a slight and temporary rise in temps. For example, this morning my thermometer showed a temp of 2.6, that dropped to 2.0 early afternoon and is now back up to 2.6

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3.8 deg here ,cant wait for the maint event , this could be a one 20 year event for some places in Wales , and potentially more on Monday

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Looks like the front before midnight seems to be ahead of schedule looks like it will reach south Wales before midnight.

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