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Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

Every weather site I go to has snow for us in the afternoon tomorrow.

yeah we have to get showers blown in from the north sea on an south easterly or easterly wind and should continue through saturday

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Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith

Heehee .. don't be daft Russell... living here for 22 years makes you as Scottish in any meaningful sense as anyone on this forum, whether born here or not.

But you must miss the Morris Dancing though laugh.png

My first post on here for some time. it looks like we might get another bite of the cherry Sun/Mon and even beyond that the Meto 6-15 days might provide further opps. I have to admit to being English but i have lived here for 22 years, so I hope you dont mind me posting, cheers.

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Posted
  • Location: Leith
  • Weather Preferences: Anything outwith the mean.
  • Location: Leith

Don't sweat it, the eventual reality is always 10,20,30,40 miles out rolleyes.gif

It could be worse than that or it could be better than that in almost any location on that map.

You have to laugh, A good 80-85% of the UK covered in snow on this chart, and then there's the central belt....

13011906_1706.gif

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl

Just outside at the cattle again and we have a strong to gale force southerly wind with severe windchill at 1c. No sign of a warming descending wind off the Cairngorms today. Just need a bit of snowfall and we would have ourselves a good old fashioned blizzard!! Some calves stuck their heads through a gate into the wind and promptly withdrew them again really funny.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

see the micheal fish forecast on here is that just taken off the GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

What are the chances of seeing a few centimeters of snow in Glasgow? I've had a look and the 6Z run and it seems to have pushed the main snow risk south of Glasgow for the moment, if anyone with more experience than me could answer that it'd be appreciated.

it does look from the runs and from the bbc weather forecasts that the snow will not reach as far north as the central belt but there is snow showers to come in from the east coast over the next few days but dont know if the wind is strong enough or in the right direction to push those showers through towards glasgow u will just need to keep an eye on things over the next few days to see how it all plays out

EDIT: most models apart from the GFS look good for possible snow events through next week so if u dont see any snow in the next few days your chances of getting some may go up as the week progresses

Edited by Buriedundersnow
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Actually quite relieved that we aren't getting a pasting, as I was looking forward to my first dive of the year tomorrow evening. At least (I think, though not at all knowledgeable!) this downgrade reduces the risk of the Atlantic coming back, and keeps us colder, dryer and less windy than it was in December, which all in all makes for a slightly easier life! TOORP? Ha!

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Posted
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level
  • Location: Maddiston , Falkirk, Scotland 390ft above sea level

Rain band just in Ireland now. It is gathering pace!

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Posted
  • Location: Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Blizzards, Storms, Sun, Lightening
  • Location: Renfrewshire

Guys I wouldn't worry at all. This is very much a nowcasting situation. The models cannot possibly accurately forecast where snow will fall. I'm sure this will twist and turn a helluva lot more in the next 12-24 hours.

On another note, Sean Batty sent me a rather downhearted tweet on Twitter. I'm trying to reassure him lol https://twitter.com/Craig_Bush_1

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

we may not get the snow front move in over us but i think the east coast and inland towards central areas will see some snow from these showers over the weekend just depends on direction of wind and how strong that wind is to who will get showers but showers can still easily put 6" or more on the ground depending on how frequent and heavy they are and into next week its looking like more snow can move in will just have to wait and see to what extent it pushes in and if it will get further than this coming front but even if it doesnt we will always have snow risk from shower activity

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeen
  • Location: Aberdeen

first showers rolling in off the sea here. Showers are sleet and ice - a keen SSE wind and Temp 2C/-2C so cold enough for snow I would say, maybe!

I am right down by harbor and only shaded spots have snow left. It has melted today down here. Suspect back in west end of city it will be snowier but a slow gentle thaw been on cards today. Not sure if this is a milder blip today before colder tomorrow, but forecast seem to suggest temp is going to stay same say and night for next 4 days.

Hopefully everywhere see's some nice snow if that is what you are after...

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Posted
  • Location: Moffat - D&G
  • Location: Moffat - D&G

Could you explain why the front being 15 miles further west is good for the east? Thanks.

It is the HP over Scandi which is holding the Atlantic back at the moment and stops the eastward progress of tomorrow's front. I think that consequently, gradients will end up tighter so that the SE'ly wind is colder and stronger with the cold pool nearer, the further west that HP ends up as it retrogresses towards its destination somewhere between Iceland and Norway over the weekend. So the the further west it all is, the more convective activity might end up being pulled off the North Sea. Quite useless for Moffat by the way. :)

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Posted
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl

Heehee .. don't be daft Russell... living here for 22 years makes you as Scottish in any meaningful sense as anyone on this forum, whether born here or not.

But you must miss the Morris Dancing though laugh.png

Not really but not to keen on the ceilida either... unless its snowing of course (sorry about the spelling) took me 10 years to pronounce Milngavie right! cheers. Fingers crossed for something over the next few days. Remember some of those "southerners" maybe seeing the snow turn to rain and mush early next week

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl

Remember some of those "southerners" maybe seeing the snow turn to rain and mush early next week

And there's the key point for me. As disapponting as some of the forecasts are at the minute the last thing I would ever want is a bucketload of snow turning to rain followed by the dreaded 'drip, drip' before lunchtime!

Meanwhile slight upgrade for the start of next week in the latest Met text forecast for Lothian and Borders - "Strong easterly winds on Monday with sleet and snow showers becoming more frequent".

Edited by 101_North
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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level

A lovely chilly, clear blue sky afternoon in Skye! I'll just wait and see what happens over the next few days, I've nae toys left tae chuck!

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

I'm not sure what's driving the 'blue' over Fife by 12pm on Saturday, temperatures are a bit high but every other metric screams snow so probably something along the lines of soft hail I'd imagine would be likely:

13011912_1712.gif

If we can get a decent base tomorrow evening mind you the temperatures are likely to be that degree or two lower which would almost guarantee snowfall through Saturday and Sunday.

Uppers look good, trending great:

13011912_1712.gif

Lower uppers look fantastic:

13011912_1712.gif

The airmass is very strongly continental so dewpoints are incredibly low:

13011912_1712.gif

Snow.

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

LS do u think that the front moving into the south west and wales has been forecast correctly as it doesnt look like very much on the radar

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Posted
  • Location: Troon, South Ayrshire
  • Location: Troon, South Ayrshire

ukprec.png

Is it me or is the band (accordinging to raintoday) further East at this time. It shows the rain into S.Ireland whereas the models show it still in the atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

LS do u think that the front moving into the south west and wales has been forecast correctly as it doesnt look like very much on the radar

Looks ok to me, maybe slightly further northeast than expected but basically the same, remember the front will intensify as it actually hits the colder air over us.

Also, all may not be lost for the west:

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo.png

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