Scotland Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013>

[lorenzo]

Okay - who done it???

Snow just aboot anywhere ! 'Mon the blobs!!

[Stormeh]

[russell k]

Not looking good for Edinburgh and central belt yet again, I don't understand how SW wind carry showers over land in Edinburgh yet SE winds don't and yet we are on the East coast???

My first post on here for some time. it looks like we might get another bite of the cherry Sun/Mon and even beyond that the Meto 6-15 days might provide further opps. I have to admit to being English but i have lived here for 22 years, so I hope you dont mind me posting, cheers.

[edo]

HOI KILTIES chill the fleck oot................... thought I had clicked on the mad hoose model thread there...

charts still good in long term and the NAE above from Lorenzo shows potential precipitation anywhere

chillax and start looking oot windaes tonight/tomorrow and step away from the keyboards

[Buriedundersnow]

oh well its not been looking good all morning from what we were expecting yesterday to what is said we are to get now but have to say one thing with the way in the last 24hrs the front has been held back west i woulnt be suprised if by tomorrow it doesnt even get in as far as they think it will and it only just fringes into the very southwest as the block seems to be winning the battle against the front big time plus unless the front is due to expand it doesnt look like giving much snow out of it as it is already showing on the radar pushing into the south west of ireland and it looks a very weak affair and as it pushes against the block surely it will just decay further so in the next 12hrs we might even see downgrades coming for the south west of england and for wales.

now on the longer outlook it could be a good thing the front not making it here as it will help with prolonging the cold and we will see snow just not this early which is a bit of a bummer but if it keeps us in the cold for longer we will surely have plenty more chances for snow in the near future so its not all doom and gloom.

[edo]

My first post on here for some time. it looks like we might get another bite of the cherry Sun/Mon and even beyond that the Meto 6-15 days might provide further opps. I have to admit to being English but i have lived here for 22 years, so I hope you dont mind me posting, cheers.

get OOT nooooooooooooooooo

welcome and great first post... people losing sight that long term sthings still looking good.... all we can look for is trends..... this period showing forecasting snow is nigh on impossible in the way we can other weather patterns. I told people yesterday morning snow would hit mainland UK and that was the only thing could be certain about wuith no idea of location but it only just makes it on some recent models..... as November13 and Lorenzo keep saying #nowcasting

[November13]

oh well its not been looking good all morning from what we were expecting yesterday to what is said we are to get now but have to say one thing with the way in the last 24hrs the front has been held back west i woulnt be suprised if by tomorrow it doesnt even get in as far as they think it will and it only just fringes into the very southwest as the block seems to be winning the battle against the front big time plus unless the front is due to expand it doesnt look like giving much snow out of it as it is already showing on the radar pushing into the south west of ireland and it looks a very weak affair and as it pushes against the block surely it will just decay further so in the next 12hrs we might even see downgrades coming for the south west of england and for wales.

now on the longer outlook it could be a good thing the front not making it here as it will help with prolonging the cold and we will see snow just not this early which is a bit of a bummer but if it keeps us in the cold for longer we will surely have plenty more chances for snow in the near future so its not all doom and gloom.

Correct. If by this time tomorrow there is no snow then toys well an truly oot ra windae. However for the next 24 Hours patience,rinfall radar and lampost required. Forget the models for a day!

oh well its not been looking good all morning from what we were expecting yesterday to what is said we are to get now but have to say one thing with the way in the last 24hrs the front has been held back west i woulnt be suprised if by tomorrow it doesnt even get in as far as they think it will and it only just fringes into the very southwest as the block seems to be winning the battle against the front big time plus unless the front is due to expand it doesnt look like giving much snow out of it as it is already showing on the radar pushing into the south west of ireland and it looks a very weak affair and as it pushes against the block surely it will just decay further so in the next 12hrs we might even see downgrades coming for the south west of england and for wales.

now on the longer outlook it could be a good thing the front not making it here as it will help with prolonging the cold and we will see snow just not this early which is a bit of a bummer but if it keeps us in the cold for longer we will surely have plenty more chances for snow in the near future so its not all doom and gloom.

Yes it does seem to be stalling over Ireland and then disintegrating. However the real McCoy is behind this so it will be interesting to see if it speeds up!

[edo]

As LS keeps saying crucial where flow is and of course the uppers but at midnight saturday night this is not shabby and its GFS

[Buriedundersnow]

Correct. If by this time tomorrow there is no snow then toys well an truly oot ra windae. However for the next 24 Hours patience,rinfall radar and lampost required. Forget the models for a day!

Yes it does seem to be stalling over Ireland and then disintegrating. However the real McCoy is behind this so it will be interesting to see if it speeds up!

would be good if we could get an unexpected movement and pull that convection in off the north sea there seems alot of showers hanging about off the coast

[daboss]

What a let down for Glasgow. .

[101_North]

Am I correct (propably not) in thinking that the winds will swing more easterly through Saturday? Would give Edinburgh a bit more of a shout then - maybe!

By the way - this model watching is painful

[Ruzzi]

For SE winds, the danger would be Edinburgh being in the 'snow shadow' of the Lammermuirs, with aw the snaw being dumped on fort SS.

However, if intense enough, could be carried all the way over.

Best direction for Embra would be E to ENE directly into the Forth Valley.

Agreed! Late november/early december 2010 we got 26" inches of level snow accumulated in our back garden over a 5 day period. The snow showers just fed in almost on a constant basis.

[Ruzzi]

You have to laugh, A good 80-85% of the UK covered in snow on this chart, and then there's the central belt....

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

but i have lived here for 22 years.

For surviving that long, you well deserve one of these:

Edited January 17, 2013 by scottish skier

[Buriedundersnow]

bbc scotland weather just said snow showers coming in from the east tomorrow and saturday and still some on sunday but not as heavy and fewer of them

[101_North]

You have to laugh, A good 80-85% of the UK covered in snow on this chart, and then there's the central belt....

I think we'll have to pay for Nov/Dec 2010 for a few years yet

[November13]

N Eire now on Amber..They are not that far from West Central Scotland...All to play for!

[Stormeh]

N Eire now on Amber..They are not that far from West Central Scotland...All to play for!

Yep all down to nowcasting, just keep an eye on the radar. Who knows it might just decide to make it over here

[cscrim]

Things have changed a fair bit in last 24 hours so plenty time for upgrades covering weekend.

[russell k]

For surviving that long, you well deserve one of these:

cheers SS, no escape now!

[russell k]

get OOT nooooooooooooooooo

welcome and great first post... people losing sight that long term sthings still looking good.... all we can look for is trends..... this period showing forecasting snow is nigh on impossible in the way we can other weather patterns. I told people yesterday morning snow would hit mainland UK and that was the only thing could be certain about wuith no idea of location but it only just makes it on some recent models..... as November13 and Lorenzo keep saying #nowcasting

thanks, skies clearing here, slight dusting on the campsies, we sometimes do quite well here on a easterly, clutching straws!!

[tiff]

I'm confused, do I go down to get the 4x4 in preperation for hauling hapless drives out of snowdrifts, or do I put my feet up and relax and take the chance of getting caught out in a breakdown van on summer tyres..?

[101_North]

I like the look of the MetCheck map above but it's MetCheck and most likely nonsense. They'd be pretty much the only site to have anything like a high risk for the Lothians.

....The latest BBC forecast is far from inspiring for here either. Not much in the way of showers tomorrow, some on Saturday but dying out later.

[BurntFishTrousers]

_{Well, what have we here? Same as last week. Over-excitement turns to TOORPing simply because too many charts showing snow potential never materialised.}

[Snowlover2]

Every weather site I go to has snow for us in the afternoon tomorrow.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Snowlover2