South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[Dave Kightley]

2-5cm is a joke considering its a classic battleground set but still goes wrong. Front moves to far east and the ppn to North -unluck

[harta]

MO say snow in my town for 18 hours yet all we will get is 2cm!!!!!! Every single forecast is BS, nothing ever stacks up.

[fergieweather]

no one can predict how much were gonna see it! its impossiable somerset northwards will do well i feel

We employ combination of UKMO-GM, NAE, UK4 & UKV to assess snow amount likelihoods, alongside MOGREPS & EC ENS snow prob charts to cross-reference areal probability. I've never seen GFS cited in any such analyses on regional/sub-regional snow amounts. I've never heard anything positive in views re it's snow prog algorithm, but in any event, the topographic simulation & emulation of orographic enhancement etc from UK4 & UKV is vastly superior anyway.

[Snow shut work]

Twot are you on about harta!!!

Edited January 17, 2013 by Snow shut work

[harta]

Can I ask how much experience you both have at forecasting/model watching please?

I count myself as a rank amateur even though I have been following all of this weather forecasting shenanigans for a couple of years, yet I am certainly not seeing what you 2 are seeing. Quite the opposite.

What are you seeing? A computers best guess.

[Duane S.]

MO say snow in my town for 18 hours yet all we will get is 2cm!!!!!! Every single forecast is BS, nothing ever stacks up.

You still here? Nothing I've read from you makes any sense. Just unfounded moans and groans about a backtrack that has neither happened yet nor been forecast to.

[harta]

You still here? Nothing I've read from you makes any sense. Just unfounded moans and groans about a backtrack that has neither happened yet nor been forecast to.

What are you reading?

[dancing daisy]

What are you seeing? A computers best guess.

Expert analysis, computer models showing run after run of snow, experienced meteorologists opinions and the very clever people on NW who rarely (if ever) let me down with their excellent knowledge.

That's all!

[Beast of Plympton]

MO say snow in my town for 18 hours yet all we will get is 2cm!!!!!! Every single forecast is BS, nothing ever stacks up.

Here is my personal opinion on the situation, and please correct me if i'm wrong. But from what I can tell this is such a rare situation that the models and forecasters are having a hard time forecasting it. However, they have to forecast some weather in fear of being accused of not informing the public of upcoming events.

I think in reality the forecasters have in the back of their mind that this could go anywhere and what is forecast is "best guess"

This is not an IMBY post, I love the snow but im self employed. If we get some then great, if we don't I can go to work. It could completely miss devon, cornwall, somerset, avon and dorset. It equally could stall over lands end and give them the biggest snow fall in history.

I know this is a largely a model discussion thread but so many shifts eastwards and westwards, can anyone really say what will come of this?

Anyway, please don't shoot me, just my thoughts.

[noggin]

Any mods around to sort these two out?

[kaz]

looks like north devon will just get good old rain. exmoor looks like it might get a dusting, but apart from some icy roads during the night it looks like rain all the way. fed up with rain. But it sure will be interesting to watch the radar go from blue to pink.

kaz

[Erbyskerby]

Pink blob near Princetown on the radar - you seeing anything interesting Beasty?

[SupaSnowy]

Not sure what he is up to, trying to wind people up I guess.

Still look really good for the SW, I guess this time tomorrow we will know even more and it will be on its way. Looks like finally we might get something else well in Fareham.

[rowieboyz]

Pink blob near Princetown on the radar - you seeing anything interesting Beasty?

Nothing here yet mate

Jase

[TimMB]

harta,

If you take prediction/educated guessing/modesty/forecasting models all into account you will never get a accurate outlook. It is the mere fact you have access to so much data, data that your average person does not have access to, that creates such uncertainty. In my opinion you should take in all that you see make your own educated decisions or rely on what the Met/BBC forecast.

Otherwise you'll drive yourself crazy.

[Frosty_wsm]

Any mods around to sort these two out?

Or you can sort it out yourself, it's called the ignore button that's what I've done where those two are concerned, that way peace and harmony is restored to this thread.

[Beast of Plympton]

Pink blob near Princetown on the radar - you seeing anything interesting Beasty?

I did see that Erbyskerby!! But I am taking it with a pinch of salt and taking a nowcasting attitude!! Its beginning to get emotional!!

[Duane S.]

Here is my personal opinion on the situation, and please correct me if i'm wrong. But from what I can tell this is such a rare situation that the models and forecasters are having a hard time forecasting it. However, they have to forecast some weather in fear of being accused of not informing the public of upcoming events.

I think in reality the forecasters have in the back of their mind that this could go anywhere and what is forecast is "best guess"

This is not an IMBY post, I love the snow but im self employed. If we get some then great, if we don't I can go to work. It could completely miss devon, cornwall, somerset, avon and dorset. It equally could stall over lands end and give them the biggest snow fall in history.

I know this is a largely a model discussion thread but so many shifts eastwards and westwards, can anyone really say what will come of this?

Anyway, please don't shoot me, just my thoughts.

Good post. To have an active front passing W-E and turning readily to snow is very rare indeed. This is classic slider territory, the sorts of charts that normally appear in the FI area of the model output but here we have them on our doorstep.

Like i said earlier, there will be winners and losers, there HAS to be but I still haven't wavered from my thoughts that there will be plenty more gas in the tank from this cold and snowy spell yet

[Erbyskerby]

Hi Rowie - didn't realise you were up there too! Shame - but I reckon with your elevation you'll get something soon.

[Beast of Plympton]

Nothing here yet mate

Jase

Can you not see the pink blob mate?

[harta]

Expert analysis, computer models showing run after run of snow, experienced meteorologists opinions and the very clever people on NW who rarely (if ever) let me down with their excellent knowledge.

That's all!

The 80 year old that feeds the birds every day and takes note of their actions will be as informed if not better than the current computer. People seem to forget that once upon a time there was no computer, no meteorologists, no access to this type of info full stop yet today everybody get's so wrapped up in what is at best one man's guess.

[dancing daisy]

Any mods around to sort these two out?

Ah let the trolls play, they are keeping me entertained whilst I am poorly sick. I have even rung in sick for tomorrow which is totally unheard of, I must be the only person in the world who gets insomnia through taking night nurse.

This had better be gone before snowmageddon or I won't be able to go out to play.

Edit> I may be unfair calling them trolls, after all we are all entitled to our own opinions, each to their own etc. Although probably best not to make uneducated comments on a message board full of (wannabe and proper grown up) meteorologists.

Edited January 17, 2013 by dancing daisy

[Erbyskerby]

I did see that Erbyskerby!! But I am taking it with a pinch of salt and taking a nowcasting attitude!! Its beginning to get emotional!!

Aye, what will be will be - good luck anyways!

[chris55]

The 80 year old that feeds the birds every day and takes note of their actions will be as informed if not better than the current computer. People seem to forget that once upon a time there was no computer, no meteorologists, no access to this type of info full stop yet today everybody get's so wrapped up in what is at best one man's guess.

Go and speak to the old man then, and stop cluttering the thread.

[rowieboyz]

Can you not see the pink blob mate?

Not looked to be fair, just popping me head out the window now and again...........much more reliable, can have all the modern tech in the world but nothing beats a lamppost! Lol