South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 22z ----->

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

what I'm seeing Shaun is that after the initial snows Friday am, snowfall will transfer northwards along the frontal boundary, then friday pm looks like a frontal wave will transfer energy southeastwards (as the LP centre tracks SE wards) and along the english channel, pepping up ppn along southern counties (as far north as say Wilts) ....by 12z Saturday, the LP centre is located in the English Channel with occluded frontal system straddling WNW -ESE across southern most counties

So the stuff to the north of us fri morn will move back over us fri pm? At the same time intensifying to the south?

[Gibby]

Just listened to the live forecast from the folks at Exeter talking to Trevor Fry on BBC Radio Bristol/Somerset. They indicated the whole listening area affected by snow of between 5-10cm and locally up to 15cm while Bristol and Gloucestershire could see 15-20cm. Over Gloucestershire as Ian mentioned earlier it was said that it could snow for 24 hours. He concluded by saying that after a little more snow early Saturday the weekend would be quieter but they were watching developments for further trouble for later Sunday/Monday.

I listen to this broadcast quite frequently as the forecaster does not suffer time restraints being the time of night it is and there is often some interaction between the forecaster and Trevor Fry. It can be heard on BBC SW Regional Radio on week nights just after the 11pm news.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Gibby

[A.J]

So the stuff to the north of us fri morn will move back over us fri pm? At the same time intensifying to the south?

I've just edited my post mate, the first occlusion on the FAX charts over central england/midlands is an old decaying feature wihich is currently giving the light ppn over the irish sea/west wales and into somerset tonight

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I've just edited my post mate, the first occlusion on the FAX charts over central england/midlands is an old decaying feature wihich is currently giving the light ppn over the irish sea/west wales and into somerset tonight

p

In right so that would explain why the weather has patchy snow over England tomorrow ,

But I think I understand the pivot idea now , someone in the main thread said the stuff north of us will head west and south but the stuff further south would extend north eastwards, hence the pivot,

I'm right in saying that exactly the same occurred dec 18th 2010 , remember the pivot then that kept the snow over the mids all day??

[Iggy912]

The Day After Tomorrow...?!!

Rather chilly -5oC here tonight! Time to dream of what's in store for The Chilterns on Friday.

Night all.

[AWD]

Just listened to the live forecast from the folks at Exeter talking to Trevor Fry on BBC Radio Bristol/Somerset. They indicated the whole listening area affected by snow of between 5-10cm and locally up to 15cm while Bristol and Gloucestershire could see 15-20cm. Over Gloucestershire as Ian mentioned earlier it was said that it could snow for 24 hours. He concluded by saying that after a little more snow early Saturday the weekend would be quieter but they were watching developments for further trouble for later Sunday/Monday.

I listen to this broadcast quite frequently as the forecaster does not suffer time restraints being the time of night it is and there is often some interaction between the forecaster and Trevor Fry. It can be heard on BBC SW Regional Radio on week nights just after the 11pm news.

15cm - 20cm for Bristol and Gloucs.

Wow!

That's quite a bit more bullish than Ian's recent figures, especially for Bristol. In inclined to go with Ian for now though.

Going to be an interesting day for sure.

Edited January 16, 2013 by AWD

[PompeyFC]

what I'm seeing Shaun is that after the initial snows Friday am, snowfall will transfer northwards along the frontal boundary, then friday pm looks like a frontal wave will transfer energy southeastwards (as the LP centre tracks SE wards) and along the english channel, pepping up ppn along southern counties (as far north as say Wilts) ....by 12z Saturday, the LP centre is located in the English Channel with occluded frontal system straddling WNW -ESE across southern most counties

to save any confusion, the initial occl front shown on the FAX charts over central/eastern england is a decaying feature that is currently giving very light ppn over the Irish sea/west wales into parts of somerset

assume friday avo into friday evening that gives snow in south hampshire down to the coast ?

[Stoxs]

Well

what can i say!

Never been this close to a potential event to cover such a great area, no point at all in trying to give accumilation totals as local geagraphics will enhance PPN .

Anywhere away from cornwall will see snow right accross our reigon to around east hampshire how much ? who knows.

Best bit about this event is it should be cold enough for proper snow not the slushy muck we often see, very little thaw , ground nice and cold now.

Some will be dissapointed, some will be snowed in, we will know for sure this time in 2 days!!!

good luck

no wheres my snow shovel!!!

[Dave Kightley]

2cm for lowland Somerset. i hope not!

[Dave Kightley]

gfs has loads for us.Such a confusing event

[Beast of Plympton]

Yet again, very conflicting views for parts of devon from Netweather, BBC and Met Office. I am just leaving it until the day now and hope for snow. If it doesn't come then i'm sure our neck of the woods will have other chances.

[Dave Kightley]

15cm - 20cm for Bristol and Gloucs.

Wow!

That's quite a bit more bullish than Ian's recent figures, especially for Bristol. In inclined to go with Ian for now though.

Going to be an interesting day for sure.

Ian gave total different firgures on twitter?

[AWD]

Ian gave total different firgures on twitter?

Yup, as my post suggested.

[Wilxy]

2-5cm for are area seems most likely as it stands, have to wait and see what next run shows could be some exciting stuff on the way this weekend and beyond with signs of more undercutting lows.

[Argyle1980]

There could still be somthing happening in Cornwall ;-) people up east ramping up all there snow they are getting before it has even fallen..... I hope the whole country turns white with a good share of the spoils .... Happy snow days people and stay safe :-)

[Dave Kightley]

Yup, as my post suggested.

These snow totalsare confusing a proberly will if it keeps moving west

[harta]

2cm for lowland Somerset. i hope not!

like i said earlier, way over ramped, slight dusting for somerset, dorset, east devon and nil for cornwall. MO over egg's the pudding due to it's leaning to elf and safety, they give out orange warning's these day's for a frost just in case they get sued. expect downgrade by lunch time thursday.

[moled]

Certainly the far SW could be the place looking at the the latest NMM (Similar to NAE short term) 2M temp and wind video model dragging up low DP from cold continent:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/videos_wrfnmm.php

Gradual improvement in the slider low track on most models this evening but one thing Dartmoor does well is cold rain so not totally convinced, but interesting none the less.

[Beast of Plympton]

Certainly the far SW could be the place looking at the the latest NMM (Similar to NAE short term) 2M temp and wind video model dragging up low DP from cold continent:

http://www.meteociel...deos_wrfnmm.php

Gradual improvement in the slider low track on most models this evening but one thing Dartmoor does well is cold rain so not totally convinced, but interesting none the less.

Looks good on the animation. Dartmoor may come up with a few suprises for us yet mate.

[Dave Kightley]

like i said earlier, way over ramped, slight dusting for somerset, dorset, east devon and nil for cornwall. MO over egg's the pudding due to it's leaning to elf and safety, they give out orange warning's these day's for a frost just in case they get sued. expect downgrade by lunch time thursday.

I agree.Unluck for one and the over poor event for mostafter hype about it. GFs has more then 2 CM.Nae has more then 2CM. Everything just happening aroundSomerset.

[chris55]

Trying to guess exactly where the heaviest ppn will fall is futile to be honest, we now know there is an active front pushing into some very cold air and it will likely be snow for many. Northern areas of the region look set for the largest accumulations because they will be under the ppn for longest as the front stalls and pivots back.

The best bet is to watch the radar, if there's some tasty yellow/red blobs over your house then you could well get a little more that suggested, if they skirt round may be a little less, snowfall amounts always seem to be very localised so a now-cast for snow depths is definitely best.

[124alex]

I agree.Unluck for one and the over poor event for mostafter hype about it. GFs has more then 2 CM.Nae has more then 2CM. Everything just happening aroundSomerset.

no one can predict how much were gonna see it! its impossiable somerset northwards will do well i feel

[Dave Kightley]

This event should be 20cm widely. Simple as that with the synpotics.not happy

[Blizzardof82]

This event should be 20cm widely. Simple as that with the synpotics.not happy

How can you be unhappy with amounts when nothing has fallen yet?

[dancing daisy]

like i said earlier, way over ramped, slight dusting for somerset, dorset, east devon and nil for cornwall. MO over egg's the pudding due to it's leaning to elf and safety, they give out orange warning's these day's for a frost just in case they get sued. expect downgrade by lunch time thursday.

I agree.Unluck for one and the over poor event for mostafter hype about it. GFs has more then 2 CM.Nae has more then 2CM. Everything just happening aroundSomerset.

Can I ask how much experience you both have at forecasting/model watching please?

I count myself as a rank amateur even though I have been following all of this weather forecasting shenanigans for a couple of years, yet I am certainly not seeing what you 2 are seeing. Quite the opposite.