Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

[ukpaul]

Has anybody got charts for snowfall accumulations for Friday through to Monday or where I could find such charts thank you

Up to the end of Monday -

[Backtrack]

Before Ian (Fergieweather) comes on, I've been lucky enough to receive a reply from him. He states the following:

no suggestion of any significant change. V good continuity in broad sense. Story consistent. GM & UK4 keep same sorts of totals.

Based on what he's saying, I think any westward correction vs the 12z is likely to be discarded by the Met Office, although not completely overlooked. This could also mean that Monday's event could be of some significance as hinted at by several models in the medium time-frame.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Backtrack

[BlueHedgehog074]

Man, it seems like the models have broke into an agrument with each other...

ECMWF: "Oiy GFS! What ya doing man trying to power the Atlantic back through yet again on your run for next Wednesday? Load of rubbish that."

GFS: "It's my evolution, and if I think the Atlantic will come bashing back through next week, I'll show it."

ECMWF: "Well it's a stupid evolution, and hardly non of your model friends are supporting your idea are they? You're being too progressive man with the way you're handling those Lows out in the Atlantic. Bet your jealous because of how me and the UKMO perfectly handle the undercutting of those Lows out West next week; unlike some stupid weather model who always over-deepens Lows, and who always over-powers the Atlantic"

GFS: "Oh, well I'm sorry if I can't produce dreamland over-hyped cold, snowy charts like what you show. I mean, who was the chart who showed that chilly Easterly in December which never came off? ...You did! And did it come off... no it didn't!!! Such a loser!"

ECMWF: "Yeah but..."

GFS: "Don't but me, I was right and you were wrong. And there's nothing you can do about it. End of story!"

UKMO: "GFS, just grow up will you. Okay, so the ECM made an error in the past. All of us models make mistakes from time to time - just think of all that tricky data we have to process. It is not easy. Did it not occur to you that what the ECMWF showed was pretty much in deep Fantasy Island anyway. It does get harder to formulate all the mathematical equations in our model brains the further into the future we predict. Now get a grip, or the ECM and I will no longer like you."

ECMWF: "Ha ha haa, nice one UKMO. You go man! At least some model understands. To be honest, I don't like that horrendous GFS model anyway. Always looking for an argument."

GFS: *GFS becomes all moody and says numerous foul things about the ECMWF behind its back*

ECMWF: "By the way Gee-Ef-Ess, if you truly think your unrealistic idea of eagerly powering up the Atlantic with them unappealing Westerly winds will materialise, then how come you have the Lows going underneath the block in far FI with cold returning, Huh?

GFS: "I have no choice... DO I? Can't win I tell you. I just can't!"

ECMWF: "What do ya mean? You ain't making sense man."

GFS: "You told me my idea of powering the Atlantic back in was... how shall I put it... "not to your liking". So in deep FI, I built heights back up North, (not that I wanted to), and had colder air spilling back down South and West."

ECMWF: "Lol, you're pathetic GFS. Absolutely pathetic. You go on how you believe your Atlantic evolution is better than my solution, to only go and produce that in FI just to impress me. That ain't what I call trying to be realistic... is it? Am sure Netweather members want realism - not inaccurate charts you show."

GFS: "Will you just get loooooooost!!! You bullied me into doing this, okay!"

ECMWF: "No you idiot, I think you should get looooooost actaully. I gave ya my honest opinion about ya output for next week. I didn't say you had to change it man!"

UKMO: "ECM has a point you know."

(GEM suddenly jumps to the scene)

GEM: "Come on guys just leave it!! I'm tryna get some sleep here. If I don't get any sleep before producing my morning 00Z run, it's going to look, quite frankly, terrible! All the shortwaves will be in the wrong place, Lows will be over-powered, highs not being as strong as they could be and so on and so forth. I'm sure the weather model experts like Steve Murrs and Chino won't be happy if they spot all the flaws contained within my run. It will be all your fault! Yes ECMWF, that means you, too."

ECMWF: "Alright, chill GEM. It ain't like ya to get worked up like this man.... sheesh! That was the GFS's job anyway."

GEM: "Wouldn't have to if you models would just.... stop.... fighting!! Yes, I know the way the GFS wants to try blast the cold away next week seems too sudden. And yes, not many of us support it, and let's face it, once cold sets over the UK, it is somehwat hard for it to get pushed away like that, so I can kinda see why you were being like that towards the GFS. But I do think some of you models are being a little dismissive about GFS's ideas. It may have spotted a new trend."

ECMWF: "A trend that will keep getting put back, and back, no doubt."

GEM: "Look, just leave it and let's just all get some nice sleep. We will hopefully know by tomorrow whether that bizarre GFS will stick to its progressive Atlantic idea or not. It's not like it always gets it wrong as events in the past will prove that occassionly... just occassionly, Atlantic Lows can crash through quickly.... just perhaps not as eager as the way GFS does it. And, who knows, I might just start picking out that trend myself....."

(It all goes quiet and finally, all the models catch some zzzzzzzzz's).

Edited January 17, 2013 by DiagonalRedLine

[SnowBallz]

Before Ian (Fergieweather) comes on, I've been lucky enough to receive a reply from him. He states the following:

no suggestion of any significant change. V good continuity in broad sense. Story consistent. GM & UK4 keep same sorts of totals.

Based on what he's saying, I think any westward correction vs the 12z is likely to be discarded by the Met Office, although not completely overlooked. This could also mean that Monday's event could be of some significance as hinted at by several models in the medium time-frame.

To be honest, I think once 'events' are within range of the super high-resolution UKV (1.5km) I would severely doubt whether Exeter are the slightest bit interested in whatever any other model - especially the relatively low-res GFS - comes up with.

It's the same with the NAE; it's considered 'high-res' by amateurs but, actually, compared to the UKV it's like a dot matrix printer versus a laser copier. I know that a recent field of research by the Met Office, was to improve the snow field of the UKV, and this is now well incorporated into its output. I've seen presentational material which clearly shows the chalk and cheese difference between NAE and UKV, and also how - in terms of verification - UKV completely blows it out of the water.

Personally I've no interest in this 'event' - doesn't reach London, so will matter little to me what happens.

[Beaufort12]

Looks like NI is in the frame for snow now for Friday. After issuing a warning for snow yesterday they lifted it today

I'm aware this isn't a regional thread but if the front doesn't progress as far east then it has obvious knock on effects for parts of the British mainland with less snowfall totals

I'm far from an expert and hoping someone can give me their opinion as to what they think will happen on Friday and include NI in their answer

Thanks a lot everyone

Edited January 17, 2013 by Beaufort12

[Zenarcher]

The strong Atlantic low appears on all of the GFS 18z ensembles including the control run so the GFS has good support from them none of the ens members want to bring it South like what the other models show. ECM though has great support from it's control run and ens members by having the low dig South. Confusing stuff indeed but soon enough one will be wrong and one will be right.

High res NAM model backs the ECM, UKMO etc and not the GFS.

[ukpaul]

Before Ian (Fergieweather) comes on, I've been lucky enough to receive a reply from him. He states the following:

no suggestion of any significant change. V good continuity in broad sense. Story consistent. GM & UK4 keep same sorts of totals.

Based on what he's saying, I think any westward correction vs the 12z is likely to be discarded by the Met Office, although not completely overlooked. This could also mean that Monday's event could be of some significance as hinted at by several models in the medium time-frame.

Well the latest update as regards precipitation totals and the eastward movement of the front on the metoffice website suggests that they are fully confident of their own model and the NAE against most of the others. In fact for Guildford it shows heavy snow from 9am on Friday until 6pm, if it's even half that I'll be surprised but happy.

Or is it that these forecasts are a lagging indicator and will change by the morning to reflect a westward shift and a decaying front?

Or will the other models, in fact, move towards what they are saying in any case?

Just wondering where their bullishness comes from, it's very unusual to have snowy southerlies, do they see some sort of effect from the channel, given the other factors? Any ideas?

[full_frontal_occlusion]

Personally I've no interest in this 'event' - doesn't reach London, so will matter little to me what happens.

Hi SB. Are you saying this because you have access to the latest UKV output which has shown the eastern limit of Fridays event?

Or is that your prognosis on the current slew of model output and available data?

ffO.

[alexisj9]

Well the latest update as regards precipitation totals and the eastward movement of the front on the metoffice website suggests that they are fully confident of their own model and the NAE against most of the others. In fact for Guildford it shows heavy snow from 9am on Friday until 6pm, if it's even half that I'll be surprised but happy.

Or is it that these forecasts are a lagging indicator and will change by the morning to reflect a westward shift and a decaying front?

Or will the other models, in fact, move towards what they are saying in any case?

Just wondering where their bullishness comes from, it's very unusual to have snowy southerlies, do they see some sort of effect from the channel, given the other factors? Any ideas?

There's cold air in france at the moment so the south winds are just bring that up to us, and the chanel is a small body of water that will not warm the wind up that much, If it was a south westerly more heating up would happen.

[snow drift]

excellent nae and ukm. ireland gets in the action!

The latest out put from the GFS and UKMO has surprised me, in that the morning runs have had everything further East and then as the next runs come out everything gets moved a bit more west. The latest has the system moving a little further south and going along the chanel. The efect of this is that more in the west keep the cold uppers and more would get snow than rain. It also looks more encouraging for the SE due to the strong Easterly.

This then leaves the door open for the cold to flood back from the NE. I know it will prob change but for the UK this has even more joining in the fun.

I await the more knowledgeable to correct me but thats my reading of the latest output. Finally, many are going to love the charts for Monday aswell.

[Wilxy]

00z output is great for everyone, upgrade for SE now too, intresting developments to come today.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Very interesting 00z runs today from the Nogaps /Ukmo/Gem/GFS .

I think West Europe is into a very long time of cold spells -outbreaks from Artic or NNE flow s..

Also for the month of Februari.

[Jezzer]

From Matt on twitter a few mins ago...

"@MattHugo81: Closer look, it seems as though the front develops a low pressure on it in the Irish Sea now and this takes precip away from NW Eng.

@MattHugo81: Risk of snow increases for N Ire and also moves along more southern areas perhaps as well. So again surprised for NW Eng for from MO."

[somersetsnow]

It has been a great ride,over the past week,looking on here and seeing how this has turned out. (some times every hour!) I don't know much about all the charts but i do now! Great to read all the posts and learn some interesting facts.

[Joe Bloggs]

Met Office staying firm the North West STILL very much in the firing line, strange quotes earlier up in the thread!

I'm baffled by the whole thing.

Perhaps their own high-res mesoscale models look more favourable for us?

Hopefully someone behind the scenes will be able to confirm.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Joe Bloggs

[MattH]

Just to help clear things up...

The 00Z FAX for midday on Friday shows why things have and will change;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif

The occlusion, somewhat frustratingly to say the least, develops a low pressure along it now initially in the Irish Sea before moving into Ireland. This, without question, holds the front further west and keeps NW Eng and the Midlands out of the firing line, particularly compared with previous forecasts. Parts of the south may see an increase but I think the biggest change will be to Ireland, especially N Ireland which could see the bulk of the snow from this event now after clearly likely not having very much.

Granted I don't have access to the UKMO UKV and the likes, but I still have other, higher resolution models from work which aren't available for public use and combining all the high resolution models I have here, then the forecasts for NW Eng from the MO look odd now, without question. I would say at most NW Eng look like getting 2cm to 5cm and similar for the Midlands, perhaps locally 10cm at very most.

Matt.

[snow drift]

Im afraid the meto amber warnings will vansih into thin air today,its just so unfair it really is.

The latest output has moved everything about 50 miles west. It could well move again. The warnings are not going to go. Come on guys, great output and your being negative from IMBY position.

[Wilxy]

Will be intresting to see what happens on future runs now with that new shortwave over ireland, intresting times.

Much better heights showing on this mornings runs from all models.

Edited January 17, 2013 by tomjwlx

[If Wishes made Weather]

Again, save for the GFS in FI, very good cold output this morning from all of the models. In particular the UKMO, GEM, ECM put two slider lows through with stronger easterlys on the northern flanks. HP moving over to the north or NE of UK.

[jimben]

Met office forecast for the NW, for Friday, issued at 03:57 i.e. after the 00z's still paints a very wintry picture hmmmm, let confusion reign or hopefully snow

[Supacell]

The snow risk has been pushed west and unfortunately my area is out of the fun and games now for tomorrow (although still likely to be some lighter snow). BBC graphics on Carol Kirkwood's forecast also highlight this fact. It's annoying, but it may be beneficial in the long run.

Bottom line is the cold block to our east is stronger than predicted by some, and so any models showing the Atlantic taking over next week can be taken with a pinch of salt IMO. GFS FI will be very unlikely to happen, I would be much more inclined to back the other models with a realistic solution.

It is just a pity that the short term forecasts can't be taken with the same reliability as FI at the moment, although I am aware the difficulty for forecasters in dealing with both snow events and blocking from the east (which is so rare most models appear to not know how to deal with it).

Clutching at straws here, but tomorrows snowfall extent could get increased again during today but I feel that is now unlikely.

[MKN]

The snow risk has been pushed west and unfortunately my area is out of the fun and games now for tomorrow (although still likely to be some lighter snow). BBC graphics on Carol Kirkwood's forecast also highlight this fact. It's annoying, but it may be beneficial in the long run.

Bottom line is the cold block to our east is stronger than predicted by some, and so any models showing the Atlantic taking over next week can be taken with a pinch of salt IMO. GFS FI will be very unlikely to happen, I would be much more inclined to back the other models with a realistic solution.

It is just a pity that the short term forecasts can't be taken with the same reliability as FI at the moment, although I am aware the difficulty for forecasters in dealing with both snow events and blocking from the east (which is so rare most models appear to not know how to deal with it).

Clutching at straws here, but tomorrows snowfall extent could get increased again during today but I feel that is now unlikely.

The precip intensity and areas will change slightly still. I'm yet to see any model show the same from one run to the next.

[Liam J]

Every night this thread seems to be taken WAY off course, please make sure before you hit that post button what you have typed is actually relevant to the MODEL discussion!

I'm sure the team are going to enjoy coming in and cleaning up in here this morning.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Liam J

[bluearmy]

Change for days 5 to 6 is to bring the occlusion nto the midlands (previously it was pretty well clear of most of the uk). So that brings the snowline well north of where it had looked to be for the past few runs before it sinks south again. The models beginning to come into some agreement that we come increasingly under a blocking influence close to the uk in the medium term.

Of course, nearer the time, little shortwaves could crop us on the frontal band to change its orientation !

And signs in fi gefs/ op ecm of the reasons for exeter's comments re the latter part of the two week period?

Edited January 17, 2013 by bluearmy

[Paul_1978]

Looking at the models I'd advise against anyone fretting over Friday - it looks like we'll get another 2 or 3 bites of the cherry next week. Monday and Tuesday look quite tasty to me.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Paul_1978