Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

[SMU]

Apologies to the other mods and hosts but I feel I deserve the right of reply here.

Steve

You are the king of sour grapes.

Yes, yet again little Bexleyheath hasn't achieved snowmageddon, so the fact that the rest of the country has had considerable snowfall and sub zero temps is of little relevence. I take exception to your suggestion that the whole thing has been ramped up in the stratosphere thread. No, in fact all along it has been suggested that the SSW was akin to shuffling the deck of cards and putting a few extra aces in the pack. And so far that has occurred. In fact the tropospheric forecasts have mirrored the stratospheric conditions very well this winter.

But don't ask me - ask the met office here: http://metofficenews...pheric-warming/, or the BBC weather department : http://www.bbc.co.uk.../feeds/20992173, or many others.

However, there is one thing noticeable. It is the fact that you tried to write off the cold spell before it began - and yes it was forecast and based on tried and tested stratospheric theory (that is now becoming mainstream) that earlier in the season you had petulantly gone out of your way to dismiss in the technical thread. No wonder you want to play it down.

Well Steve, this cold spell is significant, and whether the SSW delivers further cold or not, it has certainly shaken up the winter from the mild and zonal weather that was taking hold previously and, no doubt, the CET from the onset of the SSW will show this, no matter how much snow Bexleyheath receives.

Perhaps you will have the good grace to acknowledge this?

c

And Vice versa C-- your bias & self importance has shadowed what used to be a decent poster.-

just now you have a colour tag you feel the need to doubt & moderate any post that doesnt fit in with your agenda- infact Im sure this wont last long as you exercise the same poor excuse again.

I dont think I mentioned SE london ONCE in any post at any point---- its not sour grapes-

I think you will find Ive done a virtual tour of every single regional thread at some point wishing them the best with the snow.

The problem is youve become over protective of your precious stratosphere & now part of the NW team you go to any length to defend the NW winter forecast - even to the point of moderating other users posts to suit-

as a result it taints all your posts to the point as both you & 'some others' use the stratospheric anomaly & only that anomaly into whats going to happen & everything revolves around that.- well sadly it doesnt.

Is this is great cold spell NO.

Significant in your own words- NO

Is it standard cold spell No- just slightly colder in the means that the norm- the sad fact is we have got used to 'warmth' & mild for to long which has adjusted our expectation.

the Uks average snowfall DAYS are 33 per year- which could be also adjusted pro rata per winter as there are minimal days are outside the winter-

Its what i would call standard fair for an 'average' January month- & what we would expect ' generally in the 'mean'- It may have been a tad colder for a tad longer than most cold spells but its not exceptional - thats both from a cold point of view or snow point of view.

There are 'local' variations which have made it better than average & some local variations that make it worse- it depends what your viewpoint is.- but as per norm that is standard UK fair- not everyone hits the jackpot.

the best part of this cold spell has been the frontal snow which remained ALL snow for the UK- is it exceptional- no just exceptional V the 90's & 00's run of poor winters-

I havent the time to argue with you - so welcome to my ignore button- im sure I can locate it.

Edited January 19, 2013 by Steve Murr

[snowhope]

I believe some of our more learned friends on here were hinting at a return to a brief mild pattern around next week before the cold takes hold again. The charts this evening do seem to reflect this.

As John says it has been a good week and most have had something from it, the majority of the models in the reliable time frame (ukmo and ecm)) dealing rather wellwith the last weeks set ups. Lets see if they continue to do so and predictions from the likes of GP come to fruition. SSW has not taken its full effects as yet and still another 2+ months where we can get colder patterns giving the types of weather the majority of this communit seek. Lots still to play for imho.

Edited January 19, 2013 by snowhope

[weatherguy]

The way I see it is that it was just a fluke that a small wedge oh HP held out to deflect everything SE. No major block as was also forecast.

The reason that small wedge of HP was able to hold out was mostly due to the effects of the SSW

Edit - I'm talking in past tense here and I'm not sure why...It still is holding out, for the time being at least!

Edited January 19, 2013 by weatherguy

[offerman]

I think this is the first time i have seen in my 40years such a weak high pressure dominate for so long so agree with you weatherguy.

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM postage stamps at 168hrs strong support for a deep low to be approaching the UK.

However what will the tilt of the troughing be? And so will the cold go out with a bang with a snow event, will it be a damp squib or will there be another twist with more energy heading se'wards and the cold hanging on.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

[bluearmy]

Looking at the ECM postage stamps at 168hrs strong support for a deep low to be approaching the UK.

However what will the tilt of the troughing be? And so will the cold go out with a bang with a snow event, will it be a damp squib or will there be another twist with more energy heading se'wards and the cold hanging on.

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

well exeter seemed to think the damp squib not on the agenda judging by their 15 dayer although i wasnt convinced it might not be a 'holding' forecast until they saw the next mogreps and ecm ens runs. tomorrows update will tell us more.

[georgiedre]

Looking at the ECM postage stamps at 168hrs strong support for a deep low to be approaching the UK.

However what will the tilt of the troughing be? And so will the cold go out with a bang with a snow event, will it be a damp squib or will there be another twist with more energy heading se'wards and the cold hanging on.

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

ive got a funny feeling that we are going to see more under cutting as usually weather tends to set up trends hopefully the trend on this will undercutting and cold,,, when does the moon do the cycle next? ive ralised a lot of weather seem to come and go with the moons cycle???? but im no scientist.. cold will win (hopefully)

[phil nw.]

OK folks shows over- a difference of opinions between two very knowledgeable members-it happens but that`s the end of it now.

Let`s get back on topic now and just discuss the model outputs.

Thankyou all.

[johnholmes]

well exeter seemed to think the damp squib not on the agenda judging by their 15 dayer although i wasnt convinced it might not be a 'holding' forecast until they saw the next mogreps and ecm ens runs. tomorrows update will tell us more.

Mogreps is part of their routine regular daily model input, see below

MOGREPS Global ensemble 60 km 432 x 325 70

(lid ~80 km) 72 hrs 00, 12

Global analysis + 24 member ETKF perturbations

MOGREPS medium-range ensemble 60 km 432 x 325 70

(lid ~80 km) 15 days 00, 12

Global analysis + 24 member ETKF perturbations MOGREPS Regional ensemble 18km 400 x 240 70 (lid ~80km) 54 hrs 06, 18

NAE analysis + 24 member perturbations interpolated from global ensemble

Edited January 19, 2013 by johnholmes

[Cleeve Hill]

Re the above from Steve and Chino, I am sure I speak for the vast majority of members in saying you are both great contributions to the model discussion thread and your opinions are valued by all. No point in making it personal.

Keep up the great work.

[MagicBat]

And Vice versa C-- your bias & self importance has shadowed what used to be a decent poster.-

just now you have a colour tag you feel the need to doubt & moderate any post that doesnt fit in with your agenda- infact Im sure this wont last long as you exercise the same poor excuse again.

I dont think I mentioned SE london ONCE in any post at any point---- its not sour grapes-

I think you will find Ive done a virtual tour of every single regional thread at some point wishing them the best with the snow.

The problem is youve become over protective of your precious stratosphere & now part of the NW team you go to any length to defend the NW winter forecast - even to the point of moderating other users posts to suit-

as a result it taints all your posts to the point as both you & 'some others' use the stratospheric anomaly & only that anomaly into whats going to happen & everything revolves around that.- well sadly it doesnt.

Is this is great cold spell NO.

Significant in your own words- NO

Is it standard cold spell No- just slightly colder in the means that the norm- the sad fact is we have got used to 'warmth' & mild for to long which has adjusted our expectation.

the Uks average snowfall DAYS are 33 per year- which could be also adjusted pro rata per winter as there are minimal days are outside the winter-

Its what i would call standard fair for an 'average' January month- & what we would expect ' generally in the 'mean'- It may have been a tad colder for a tad longer than most cold spells but its not exceptional - thats both from a cold point of view or snow point of view.

There are 'local' variations which have made it better than average & some local variations that make it worse- it depends what your viewpoint is.- but as per norm that is standard UK fair- not everyone hits the jackpot.

the best part of this cold spell has been the frontal snow which remained ALL snow for the UK- is it exceptional- no just exceptional V the 90's & 00's run of poor winters-

I havent the time to argue with you - so welcome to my ignore button- im sure I can locate it.

You both provide excellent views and reviews. Different thoughts and opinions is what the games all about.

[Dunstable Snow]

teve

And Vice versa C-- your bias & self importance has shadowed what used to be a decent poster.-

just now you have a colour tag you feel the need to doubt & moderate any post that doesnt fit in with your agenda- infact Im sure this wont last long as you exercise the same poor excuse again.

I dont think I mentioned SE london ONCE in any post at any point---- its not sour grapes-

I think you will find Ive done a virtual tour of every single regional thread at some point wishing them the best with the snow.

The problem is youve become over protective of your precious stratosphere & now part of the NW team you go to any length to defend the NW winter forecast - even to the point of moderating other users posts to suit-

as a result it taints all your posts to the point as both you & 'some others' use the stratospheric anomaly & only that anomaly into whats going to happen & everything revolves around that.- well sadly it doesnt.

Is this is great cold spell NO.

Significant in your own words- NO

Is it standard cold spell No- just slightly colder in the means that the norm- the sad fact is we have got used to 'warmth' & mild for to long which has adjusted our expectation.

the Uks average snowfall DAYS are 33 per year- which could be also adjusted pro rata per winter as there are minimal days are outside the winter-

Its what i would call standard fair for an 'average' January month- & what we would expect ' generally in the 'mean'- It may have been a tad colder for a tad longer than most cold spells but its not exceptional - thats both from a cold point of view or snow point of view.

There are 'local' variations which have made it better than average & some local variations that make it worse- it depends what your viewpoint is.- but as per norm that is standard UK fair- not everyone hits the jackpot.

the best part of this cold spell has been the frontal snow which remained ALL snow for the UK- is it exceptional- no just exceptional V the 90's & 00's run of poor winters-

I havent the time to argue with you - so welcome to my ignore button- im sure I can locate it.

Steve - I thoroughly enjoy your posts and respect your knowledge and enthusiasm but I think you are missing the point here. I have to agree with NS that without the initial reaction to the SSW and the reverse of westerlies we would not now be enjoying this cold, and for many snowy spell of weather. If you feel that this is not the case please say so and explain how we have got to where we are now ( and have been for the last week - first snow in Dunstable last Saturday am) given where we were over the Christmas and new year. I think the other thing to consider is that this cold spell has not yet finished and there is much to happen this week. Perhaps the best thing might be for all parties to apologise, move on and undertake an analysis of actual conditions across the UK from 12.01.2013 - 28.02.2013 once we get into March. By then we will know not only the outcome of the initial reaction to the SSW but also the effects of the downswelling , Cheers

[SMU]

I was concern my post yesterday in the Strat thread was deleted purely because I didnt like the generalised comments by the BBC over SSW. I just hope we dont go down a censureship route.

i cant see how we can have T72+ as FI yet people right off February if SSW doesnt play ball ?

Surely model watching must allow different opinons such as SM without all this bear baiting

thanks-

We have been 'lucky' that the stratosphere element has developed-

no doubt about it it has helped change an otherwise pony winter thus far-

we have landed in the zone where tropospheric reaction has been largly effected-

& at no point have I said the stratosphere has No effect :

The JAN CET to the 15th was 5.6C - Quite a bit over average,

the CURRENT cold spell has just got us down to average- at 4.1c ( within 0.1c)

CET run over 7 days is 0.6 (11th-18th January 2013: 0.6C)-

Which is noteworthy - not exceptional-

The point im making is the strat has had a large warming, IF we go out this week back into a mild regime then with one of the best warmings we could have its only really made a mediocre difference...-

( remember 4 weeks of CET is made up by some ups & down & the average is ~ APPROX 10 snow days a WINTER MONTH)

so when I hear people harping on how wonderful it is to see a couple of snow events in close succession- so what- thats the NORM-

Perhaps when forecasting as a whole for the UK & winter months- we should have adopted Ians browns approach & assume anything can go wrong for us- because it 'usually' does...just like december when the alleged sudden burst of winds appeared & scuppered our cold spell- when infact it was never there in the first place---

anyway back on topic---

ECM ensembles-

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

a consistent trend of warming with no quick return signalled- but still could change at short notice-

S

-S

Edited January 19, 2013 by Steve Murr

[phil nw.]

Going to lock this shortly and open one for the 18z GFS etc-so finish up folks.

[Weather-history]

Actually Steve has a point, yes granted the pattern has changed but only to what I would call bog standard winter synoptics in January for the UK. What we have seen is what we would expect too see at this time of year, with or without any SSW.

I wouldn't call these bog standard synoptics, the standard is Icelandic low and Azores high and a zonal flow, that is bog standard.

[phil nw.]

Closing this now-new one here.