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ajpoolshark

South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

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Okey dokey then, a new thread for today's fun & games, so carry on here please!

Old thread here --------->

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Well after worrying earlier reading the mod thread I feel happy now, lets hope it remains this way for West Country or dare I say upgrade further.

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Well just to continue on the positive note.

The 06z nae is still trending away from its previous stance, it's keeping dps colder over the sw for thursday(sub 0), makes the pressure over England higher and has a better angle on things, still not quite with the GFS yet.

Also the EC EPS generally keep things further west as well than the ops run and the colder air in place for friday/sat.

This all backs up what ian said about still being definately on for the SW and and the chief forecaster going for SW SNOW and lots of it.

BTW NAE shows a shocking amount of precip waiting in the wings for us for friday....

Also longer term i would fully back up AWD's thoughts for sunday and beyond, the cold air isnt really going anywhere imho and the trend in the models is very good.Any snow could hang around for quite a few days Depending on sunday

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From the 6z output it looks my location may be the boundary between all snow and a snow to rain event for Friday. However, this is likely to change before the event and hopefully the boundary moves south west slightly. Anyone north or east of me looks like they could have an interesting Friday to say the least...

I sense some of the latest output will be of some concern to our friends further east, so be beware of reading too much into the word 'downgrade' which is likely to be strewn across the Model Discussion thread with regard to Friday. After Friday, who knows, but further snow events seem increasingly likely.

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nae has dps of -6 for parts of the sw for friday morning, and even down to -3 for the devon/dorset border.

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From the 6z output it looks my location may be the boundary between all snow and a snow to rain event for Friday. However, this is likely to change before the event and hopefully the boundary moves south west slightly. Anyone north or east of me looks like they could have an interesting Friday to say the least...

I do think that's the area of most interest in this region currently, but a lot of people could be caught out by the slightest of movements E-W. Good luck everyone, I hope you all get what you want!

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Finally the first chart of the NAE SNOW frame, Heavy snow for devon by 06 in the morning.

And this is not the best of the charts either and will upgrade to be more in line with everything else imho

post-6326-0-51734700-1358328170_thumb.gi

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nae has dps of -6 for parts of the sw for friday morning, and even down to -3 for the devon/dorset border.

It's getting there, but I'd still like a couple more westward shifts yet just to make it a tad more comfortable.

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Snowing on the Isle of Wight only light.must be getting som convection off the channel :-)

yep, that little shower tracking along the channel. I hope it drifts slightly further northwest!

getting a bit excited about friday now....going to take work home on thursday in preparation. hope that isn't the kiss of death.

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Finally the first chart of the NAE SNOW frame, Heavy snow for devon by 06 in the morning.

And this is not the best of the charts either and will upgrade to be more in line with everything else imho

lol loving the blue square piece of sleet over my area in Bournemouth! Always the same here lol

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It's getting there, but I'd still like a couple more westward shifts yet just to make it a tad more comfortable.

Yep i would prefer a slightly better angle of approach, but its shifting slowly from its isolated position.

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So anyone North of the M4 in the West country should make plans to maybe work from home or risk getting stranded? Wonder if the schools will even bother opening if it's forecast to snow all day?

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AWD, if you wish for to much of a NW shift you might get to mild where you are and it rains.

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AWD, if you wish for to much of a NW shift you might get to mild where you are and it rains.

SW shift, not NW.

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Awaits model thread to be gutted.. South west getting the purple patch... So who is up for build a igloo challenge? clapping.gifdrinks.gif

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Looking good may it continue although wish the bbc and meto local forecast would show more than light snow on my 5 day acute.gif

Lets just keep calm though until this evening and into thursday as we have all been burnt befgore...

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NMM 0.05 on meteociel shows more snow for West wales and the south west than the NAE. Both hi res models. Still expecting the NAE to upgrade slightly for both my and your area.

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Still looking good for you guys on this GFS run!

prectypeuktopo.png

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A fantastic sight before sunrise this morning along the Avon Valley path on the way to the bakery in Downton, Wilts.

Thought it worthy of a post.

post-7340-0-85691100-1358329463_thumb.jp

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06z gfs pushes everything east by 50 miles or so.

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GFS 06z for Friday goes east as per usual.

Expect the 12z GFS to pull back west again.

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06z gfs pushes everything east by 50 miles or so.

Its playing with -5 850 line again, pushing it out east faster.

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