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Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 15/01/13 18z------>

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Well, I recall walking home once during a 'blizzard' some years ago, Jan 2004 I think, the snow was horizontal and that time and it was definitely very unpleasant. Can't remember how much snow fell though, but it was definitely all white when I left where I was shopping, even though it was green prior.

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PMPhotography Explorer

PMPhotography

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 68m ASL
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 68m ASL
Posted (edited)

The forecast on BBC news 24 is a reet ord ramp! He just said ALL areas in the yellow (MO warning) to expect 10cm's! He was pretty bullish about it too!

He also said expect disruption to your life! I don't think he quite meant it to come out like that! haha!

Edited by PMPhotography
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Lincstim Contributor

Lincstim

Posted
  • Location: North lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather but love snow
  • Location: North lincs
Posted

Is it just this Friday the snow as there has been mention on fb about it lasting all weekend and even worse into next week!!!!!!!!!

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Snowy White Newbie

Snowy White

Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield 139M ASL
  • Location: Huddersfield 139M ASL
Posted

The forecast on BBC news 24 is a reet ord ramp! He just said ALL areas in the yellow (MO warning) to expect 10cm's! He was pretty bullish about it too!

He also said expect disruption to your life! I don't think he quite meant it to come out like that! haha!

I just saw that - talk about ramping or what? :p

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted (edited)

I wouldn't get too carried away just yet folks. Some ens members (GEFS members, that is) have the PPN missing us completely so there is still time for this to go the way of the pear or to upgrade further. I doubt anywhere East of the Pennines will see over 20cms as a lot of the heavier stuff could be held back, but 10-15cms is a distinct possibility with more the further west and more still with higher altitude. I doubt anyone would complain with that though, I certainly won't be! Still lots to be decided though.

In terms of next week, there is the possibility of some further heavy snowfall at times (on Sunday and Tuesday most notably) but this is far from certain and more than likely to change (for better or worse) in the coming days. Better focus on Friday/Saturday for now then look at after that once the snow is enjoyed. (If it comes!)

Edited by ITSY
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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

all eyes on the 12z, if it shows mod-heavy snow for this region then I'll feel a lot better.

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Lincstim Contributor

Lincstim

Posted
  • Location: North lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal weather but love snow
  • Location: North lincs
Posted

all eyes on the 12z, if it shows mod-heavy snow for this region then I'll feel a lot better.

12z, is this the midday gfs run? If so where is best to see the results for this??? I'm still not sure how to understand them!

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted (edited)

It updates at 3:30pm, 18z updates at 9:30pm, 00z updates at 3:30am, 06z updates at 9:30am.

Edited by Aaron
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

A shove about 50 miles east will do nicely.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

12z, is this the midday gfs run? If so where is best to see the results for this??? I'm still not sure how to understand them!

have a look in the Guides area I did a specific how to use GFS to do your own forecast, lots of toher things that might help you in there as well

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted

Just saw news 24 n 10cm widely n maybe up to 20 all down far west n south yorks.

Thats cm lol.

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

I think NAE is being released now, let's see what it has to show..

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Barry12 Seasoned

Barry12

Posted
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and Snow
  • Location: Batley, West Yorkshire
Posted

It does look like there won't be football on this weekend, look north later tonight should be interesting good.gif

I think NAE is being released now, let's see what it has to show..

The Met Office discarded the previous NAE runs so it's not game over if it's bad!

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted (edited)

As I expected, western and southern parts of our region should see the highest snowfall totals.

I think high ground will easily exceed falls of over 20cm as I've seen much lesser scenario's produce falls of more.

I expect places like Greenhow (north yorkshire), Snake pass (south yorkshire) to get atleast 10 inches, that's provided the precipiation charts don't quickly downgrade ovcoarse and we all get nothing tease.gif.

Also remember we have deep cold now in place, generally all elevations would see 100% settling snow rather than what we got on monday (10-70% quite widely), so in heavy snow, accumulations would shoot up as there would be now melting of the snow before and after it hits the ground.

Edited by Harsh Climate
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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted (edited)

Pretty much no change, precipitation beginning knocking on our region's door by around 12pm Friday, appears to advance rapidly. Need to be closer to the time to really.

As I expected, western and southern parts of our region should see the highest snowfall totals.

I think high ground will easily exceed falls of over 20cm as I've seen much lesser scenario's produce falls of more.

I expect places like Greenhow (north yorkshire), Snake pass (south yorkshire) to get atleast 10 inches, that's provided the precipiation charts don't quickly downgrade ovcoarse and we all get nothing tease.gif.

Also remember we have deep cold now in place, generally all elevations would see 100% settling snow rather than what we got on monday (10-70% quite widely), so in heavy snow, accumulations would shoot up as there would be now melting of the snow before and after it hits the ground.

Met Office snow accumulation charts puts Leeds on the boundary between more snow and less snow - such teases!

Edited by Aaron
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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

It does look like there won't be football on this weekend, look north later tonight should be interesting good.gif

The Met Office discarded the previous NAE runs so it's not game over if it's bad!

I think the NAE is a p*** poor model

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

The GFS 06Z looks pretty ideal for snow for this area of the UK with a frontal attack on Friday and early Saturday followed by some snow showers off the North Sea as the wind backs easterly, and this scenario also has good support from UKMO/ECMWF but there is still scope for change. Odds certainly favour some more of the white stuff at any rate.

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

I think the NAE is a p*** poor model

it did horribly for rainfall events here last year, but it's always nice to have it on board considering it's high-res.

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

Pretty much no change, precipitation beginning knocking on our region's door by around 12pm Friday, appears to advance rapidly. Need to be closer to the time to really.

Met Office snow accumulation charts puts Leeds on the boundary between more snow and less snow - such teases!

Don't worry about the boundry, leeds usually does well in these situations (probably historically one of our best ways of getting huge snowfall totals!)

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Just Before Dawn Enthusiast

Just Before Dawn

Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn days and foggy nights
  • Location: Louth, Lincolnshire
Posted

I wouldn't want it to arrive much earlier from a selfish point of view - I'm off to see Django Unchained on Friday afternoon!

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted (edited)

NAE doesn't look very different.

6am Friday 06z

13011806_1606.gif

6am 12z

13011806_1612.gif

Band is a bit weaker, but no biggie really. Snowfall chart looks good, with the band advancing quickly. More misleading claptrap being spouted in the Model thread.

Edited by Aaron
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Skeggy Winter Storm Contributor

Skeggy Winter Storm

Posted
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Heat thundersnow heatwaves and freezing fog
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
Posted

Is there any snow showers forecast here on lincs coasts a lot of clouds to my N and NE

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